Thursday, July 28, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 2160.58.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Last night I called the market "uncertain" for Wednesday and it turns out Mr. Market himself couldn't figure out what to make of the Fed announcement.  They (wisely) left interest rates alone, to the complete surprise of absolutely no one, and after a brief rally attempt both the Dow and SPX ended the day essentially right back where they had started it.  Okey dokey, so with that excitement out of the way, let's try to figure out where Thursday is headed as we close in on the end of the month.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:47 AM EDT with ES up 0.20%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2061.67 to 2160.58.  And that still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       4      5       6           2       0.545    -312

     And the winner is...

You have to go back a long ways to find another instance when the market has been this indecisive for so long.  Looks like sometime in 2014, going by my quick check of the SPX daily chart.  And ES has alternated up and down closes for 10 straight days now.  And none of the usual candles seem to be playing out lately.

One thing that's different tonight is that a lot of the overboughtedness has come out of ES and it's non-trivially higher in the overnight, for the first time in many nights.  Also, the VIX fell out of a week-long rising RTC on Wednesday.   So basically I'm going to go with that, go waay out on a limb and call Thursday higher to try and salvage something of July.  If that doesn't work, I'll have to go with flipping a coin.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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