Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2163.83.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

On a pre-Fed Tuesday we had the usual wobbly indeterminate action with the Dow falling a whole 19 points after an early stab lower and the SPX gaining all of 0.7 points.  There were some good day trading opportunities in there, but for swing trading it was pretty much a wash.  We now come to the big day.  For the record, I will mention that I agree with everyone else in the known universe that the Fed will not raise rates on Wednesday.

But it is also my policy to always call Fed days as "uncertain" because even if you think you know what the Fed it going to do, it's a lot harder to predict how Mr. Market will react.  Sometimes good news is good news and sometimes bad news is good news.  It's alway more prudent in these situations to just avoid standing in front of this particular bus and live to trade another day.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:19 AM EDT with ES up 0.17%. That brings ES right back to the top of a now six day-long consolidation zone.  Positive comments from the Fed on Wednesday could provide some impetus for a breakout.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2163.50 to 2161.67.  That leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       4      5       5           2       0.545    -312

     And the winner is...

OK, so no point in analyzing anything tonight.  The market on Wednesday will turn on whatever the Fed has to say and since I have no way of knowing that I simply call Wednesday uncertain, although I'll admit I'm seeing some bullish signs on the charts.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.