Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher. 
• ES pivot 2035.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Ja ja, we called Thursday lower and down we went as the Fed's Dudley Do-wrong's comments continued to stick in Mr. Market's craw.  The Dow dumped another 91 points as  May continues to stagger lower in choppy trading.

The technicals

The Dow:  With its half-percent drop on Thursday the Dow is now right back where it began 2016 as we continue dribbling down the lower BB, this time on a red hammer.  Indicators are now all oversold but not extremely so  We remain in a descending RTC so overall this chart looks fairly pessimistic to me.

VIX, daily

The VIX: This is the chart of the day.  After touching its upper BB on Wendesday, the VIX did not go lower Thursday.  Instead it gapped up with a big gravestone doji that traded almost entirely above its upper BB and sent all the indicators overbought.  You don't see this very often.  Check it out.  In any event, this is quite the bearish sign, especially with overbought indicators.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:32\9 AM EDT with ES up 0.32%.   A big hammer in ES on Thursday that tested it slower BB leads me to believe this could be a short-term bottom.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls yet again from 2043.33 to 2035.17. However ES.has finally broken above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index:   The dollar kept climbing Thursdya with a gap-up red spinning top that nearly touched its upper BB.  It's looking like a developing evening star to me and could portend a move lower next week.

Euro:  And similarly, the euro fell again on Thursday with a lopsided red spinning top that broke month-long support and  just touched its lower BB.  Indicators are now extremely oversold but we need a better reversal candle than this to call ti higher.

Transportation:  The trans continued to wander on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction on a long-legged spinning top.  I've no clue on this one.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        6      2       3           2       0.800     527
 
     And the winner is...

We got a good reversal indicator in the VIX on Thursday, even better than Wednesday's and we're finally seeing an overnight rally in the futures.  I'm not convinced this is the May bottom but I do think we'll at least end Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower. 
• ES pivot 2049.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

So Wednesday turned out to be a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing on the Street.  I was worried early on for my call for a lower close at the market rose right out the gate but the Fed minutes came to the rescue at 2 PM and made short work of that.  Though once that snit was done, they tried to knock 'em higher with a weird double bottom affair and by the time the bell rang, it was with a loss of just three points.  So with that excitement out of the way we move on to Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Huh - well so much for the vaunted bullish stick sandwich.  Wednesday's real body traded entirely below three day support for a long-legged doji resulting in a virtual wash.  But now we do at least have a real reversal candle, though the indicators are still not voersold and the lower BB continues to drop away.  And with the stochastic threaded out, I'm afraid this one will require confirmation first.

The VIX: Ah, El-Vixmo, my favorite chart.  Last night I wrote that "there's more upside from here" and wouldn't you know it, the VIX gained 2.44% on Wednesday, but like the Dow on a long-legged doji.  This one just exactly touched its upper BB, a point I call the thrid rail of the VIX.  Once it hits that, it generally goes lower in a day or two.  And with the gap-up candle and indicators nearly overbought, I'd not be surprised to see the VIX go lower next.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:51 AM EDT with ES down 0.28%.  Es was a carbon copy of the Dow on Wednesday  with a doji that left the indicators oversold.  It's a reversal sign that needs confirmation but we're getting more like a big non-confirmation in the new overnight as ES continues to sag.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2049.92 to 2043.33. ES.remains below its new pivot so this indicator simply continues bearish.

Dollar index:   Last night despite a red hanging man after three days of stalling out, I refused to call the dollar lower.  Good thing too since it broke out on Wednesday for a big 0.56% gain to continue a two-week rising RTC.  That sent the indicators back to overbought but at this strage that means little.  Of more concern is that we're at month-long resistance.  So I'm just chicken enough to refuse to call the dollar any higher from here.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro had me scratching my head last night.  In the end it extended its two-week long slump back down to 1.12375 on a tall red near-marubozu that came close to its lower BB.  That leaves the indicators all oversold, though surprisingly not extremely so, and the stochastic threaded out on the floor.  So it's impossible to call the euro higher at this point.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "I'm guessing there's more upside here".  good guess too becaue the trans gained 0.30% on a second green inverted hammer in a row.  Real body-wise that makes three white soldiers plus indicators rising off oversold and a fresh bullish stochastic crossover.  So overall, this one is cautiously optimistic.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        5      2       3           2       0.778     436
 
     And the winner is...

While we do have a few reversal signs for a move higher tonight, they require confirmation and at this point we're not getting it.  I think the Fed has it dead wrong and the market is in for a rough time.  In any case, I'm calling Thursday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower. 
• ES pivot 2049.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Well so last night I had no clear idea which way the market was going so I can't say I was surprised to see the Dow take a 181 point dump on Tuesday.  That made for some interesting chartology so let's get right to it.

The technicals

Dow daily

The Dow:  Tuesday's Dow chart formed a fairly rare three candle pattern known as a bullish stick sandwich.  Unfortunately, it's not all that good a predictor.  The last time we saw one of these, on Jan. 30th. 2015, the next day simply added another layer to the sandwich.  Perhaps of more interest is that we're building a base of support around 17,540.  With indicators nearly oversold, one could imagine a move higher from here.  Check out the chart here - you really don't see this one very often.

The VIX: The uncertainty in the market really shows in the VIX.  After a big bearish engulfing pattern Monday it put in an egually big bullish piercing pattern Tuesday.  But with the indicators all rising off oversold, that leads credence to the idea that there's more upside from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:14 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%.  ES was pretty mucht he same story as the Dow on Tuesday.  We're building good supprot around 2042.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2055.42 to 2049.92. ES.is now below the new pivot so this indicator lips back to bearish.

Dollar index:   The dollar stubbornly continues to refuse to fill in last week's big gap up with a third day in a row of going nowhere.  Indicators remain overbought but there's no telling when the break will come here  This one is just a wait & see tonight.

Euro:  And of course it's the same deal with the ero, now congesting around 1.1324.  There's no decent RTC over the past week so this chart remains a cipher until we get a breakout one way or the other.

Transportation:  On tuesday the trans confirmed Monday's bullish harami with a 0.60% gain.  It was a tall inverted hammer that nearly touched its 200 day MA but it also exited a descending RTC for a bullish trigger and formed a bullish stochastic crossover.  Indicators remains just off oversold so I'm guessing there's more upside here.  Note too that the trans rose on a day the Dow was down.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        4      2       3           2       0.750     433
 
     And the winner is...

Stick sandwich or no, the overall gestalt of the charts tonight remains negative.  My only hesitation is the fact that we're sitting right on support in both ES and the Dow but I'm having some trouble working up a case for going higher.  So I guess I'll just go out on a limb and call Wednesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain. 
• ES pivot 2055.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Last night the charts were looking negative but I made a conditional call instead, choosing to wait and see if ES could break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday.  Turns out ES noodled around snorkeling below the pivot until just after the open at which point it shot up right through the pivot and never looked back.  And hey presto, we closed higher.  The conditional call doesn't always work but it does work often enough to be useful.  Tonight we examine how this development changes things for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a big dump last Friday the Dow neatly retraced all of it on Monday, plus a bit to just squeak out a bullish engulfing pattern that bounced off its lower BB.  That also sent the indicators higher off oversold and torqued the stochastic around into position for a bullish crossover.  Does that make this chart bullish now?  I'm a bit wary of that, considering the trouble the Dow has been having putting together  winning streak longer than one for a month now.

The VIX: Last night I mentioned that "the VIX ... is showing a possible reversal".  That possibility came to be on Monday as the VIX lost 2.39% on a tall red bearish engulfing pattern that stopped the indicators from moving higher.  This looks distinctly bearish for the VIX right now.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat at 12:48 AM EDT with ES down all of one tick.  On Monday, ES put in a classic bullish engulfing pattern to pop back up to 2062.75.  But that left the indicators confused with RSI and OBV falling but momentum and money flow rising.  The all-important stochastic looks like it's trying for a bullish crossover but it's really just flattened right now.  In addition, the overnight is completely directionless.  That leaves this chart too tough for me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2048.50 to 2055.42. ES.is now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.

Dollar index:   After a giant gap-up doji last Friday the dollar came back in with a 0.05% decline Monday to complete an evening star.  With indicators still overbought, this looks bearish for Tuesday.

Euro:  On Monday, the euro gave us a bullish piercing pattern with indicators just off oversold after a big dump last Friday.  That makes it look like there's more upside potential than downside risk here.

Transportation:  After busting through their 200 day MA last week and suffering three ugly days of losses, the three black crows flew away on Monday as the trans peeled away from their lower BB for a 0.74% gain and a bullish inside harami, admittedly not the world's best reversal sign.  But indicators are rising off oversold and the stochastic is primed for a bullish crossover.  Still, I want some confirmation here first.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        4      2       2           2       0.750     433
 
     And the winner is...

Tonight we have a few nominally bullish signs on the charts, including the Dow and the futures (daily), but they require confirmation.  And oil, which had a decent gain on Monday and helped propel the party is now sitting just under six month resistance.  Finally with no guidance whatsoever from the overnight futures, I'm afraid I'm just going to have to call Tuesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday depends on ES pivot.  [Text here corrected to match the actual call made below]..
• ES pivot 2064.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Last Thursday I got sidetracked with Real Life (TM) and never got the chance to do any real market watching all day long.  That night I did make a cursory observation that the market looked lower for Friday and it's too bad I didn't make it official because the Dow indeed dumped 185 points to end the week.  Tonight we have a little more time, but not that much so it's going to be a Night Owl Lite night. as we just come to the conclusions for Monday without all the pesky details.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:36 AM EDT with ES up 0.18%.  

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2060.00 to 2048.50. ES.just nicked the corner of the new pivot at midnight but didn't break through so this indicator continues bearish for now.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        4      2       2           1       0.714     433

     And the winner is...

Tonight all the charts are looking fairly bearish with the exception of the VIX which is showing a possible reversal on a tall dojiish hammer affair.  But oil seems to be looking lower too.  The problem is that it's Sunday night so all those charts are two days old now.  So here's the deal.  With ES now in such close proximity to its new pivot and it being a Sunday night with bearish charts but rising futures, it seems like a good time for a conditional call: if ES can break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday we'll close higher.  If not, we close lower.  'S the best I can do tonight.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..