Friday, May 20, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher
  • ES pivot 2035.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

INTERLAKEN MOUNTAIN ALPS TRAIL SWITZERLAND TRAVEL VINTAGE POSTER REPRO 12"X16"Ja ja, we called Thursday lower and down we went as the Fed's Dudley Do-wrong's comments continued to stick in Mr. Market's craw.  The Dow dumped another 91 points as  May continues to stagger lower in choppy trading.

The technicals

The Dow:  With its half-percent drop on Thursday the Dow is now right back where it began 2016 as we continue dribbling down the lower BB, this time on a red hammer.  Indicators are now all oversold but not extremely so  We remain in a descending RTC so overall this chart looks fairly pessimistic to me.

VIX, daily
The VIX: This is the chart of the day.  After touching its upper BB on Wendesday, the VIX did not go lower Thursday.  Instead it gapped up with a big gravestone doji that traded almost entirely above its upper BB and sent all the indicators overbought.  You don't see this very often.  Check it out.  In any event, this is quite the bearish sign, especially with overbought indicators.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:32\9 AM EDT with ES up 0.32%.   A big hammer in ES on Thursday that tested it slower BB leads me to believe this could be a short-term bottom.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls yet again from 2043.33 to 2035.17. However ES.has finally broken above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index:   The dollar kept climbing Thursdya with a gap-up red spinning top that nearly touched its upper BB.  It's looking like a developing evening star to me and could portend a move lower next week.

Euro:  And similarly, the euro fell again on Thursday with a lopsided red spinning top that broke month-long support and  just touched its lower BB.  Indicators are now extremely oversold but we need a better reversal candle than this to call ti higher.

Transportation:  The trans continued to wander on Thursday, unable to find a clear direction on a long-legged spinning top.  I've no clue on this one.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        6      2       3           2       0.800     527

     And the winner is...

We got a good reversal indicator in the VIX on Thursday, even better than Wednesday's and we're finally seeing an overnight rally in the futures.  I'm not convinced this is the May bottom but I do think we'll at least end Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

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