Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher....
• ES pivot 2056.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ continues bullish

Recap

The technicals worked nicely Thursday with  some nice broad-based gains.  I'm running behind again tonight so this one will be quick.

The technicals

The Dow:  A nice gain Thursday confirming Wednesday's inverted hammer and bounce off the lower BB.  Looks higher Friday.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I say the VIX is lower Thursday".  And so it was, down 8.6% on a tall rd marubozu.  A bearish stochastic crossover now in place plus a rising RTC exit and falling indicators all point for more downside Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:24 AM EDT with ES up 0.07%  ES did well Thursday confirming the inverted hammer and forming a bullish stochastic crossover.  More upside possible Friday

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot finally rises from 2043.33 to 2056.25  But we're still above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  A rare decline here Thursday but on a green candle.  Rising RTC intact though.

Euro:  An even more rare gain for the euro, to 1.0599.  But the falling RTC here is also intact.

Transportation:  Wednesday's bullish divergence worked great with a 1.22% pop on Thursday.  A completed bullish stochastic crossover, a lower BB bounce, and a bullish falling RTC exit and that all spells more upside on Friday in my book.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      3      3       1           2       0.625    617

     And the winner is...

The charts tonight look generally pretty strong and Mr. Market seems to have recovered his mojo, so I'm just calling Friday higher.  That's all she wrote - see you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Our new long in VZ was rewarded nicely on Thursday with a 2.2% pop on noises of possible short-covering.  With a bullish stochastic crossover in place, a bullish RTC exit, indicators having bottomed but still not quite out of oversold, and increasing volume into the close this one looks continued bullish on Friday.  We're going to let it run.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher....
• ES pivot 2043.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ is a buy for the adventurous.

Recap

Things were looking pretty good for my call for a higher close Wednesday until one of those infamous late afternoon sell-offs torpedoed the whole deal.  But the damage was limited to just 28 Dow points.  The concept wasn't bad - big down day followed by a small move the next day - that makes it three pairs of these in a row now.  So where does that leave Thursday?  Let's check it out.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow tried to recover from Tuesday's triple digit swoon and almost made it, but not quite.  Oh well.   We're still left with an inverted hammer on highly oversold indicators and a stochastic that's primed and ready for a bullish crossover.  This chart now looks like it's got more upside potential than downside risk.

The VIX:  The VIX sent some mixed messages on Wednesday, putting in a 1.08% bullish engulfing candle but also just touching its upper BB.  That BB is the third rail of the VIX.  The VIX rarely spends much time moving higher after hitting it  That thesis is supported by highly overbought indicators (RSI=93) and a stochastic just primed for a bearish crossover.  The trade was also just outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  All in all, I say the VIX is lower Thursday

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:36 AM EDT with ES up 0.23 %  On Wednesday ES traded almost entirely below the lower BB with an inverted hammer.  Indicators moved even lower into extreme oversold territory and the stochastic has just about fallen off the bottom of the chart.  This just has to be near a reversal in my book.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2053.75  to 2043.33. But that's enough to put ES back above the new pivot so this indicator is back to bullish.

Dollar index:  The incr3dible helium dollar just kept rising on Wednesday with a second gap-up candle in a row for another 1.16% gain.  The dollar is now clearly going exponential so a pullback has to be coming soon.  But for now it's still up, up and away!

Euro:  And of course the euro just kept going lower on Wednesday closing this time at 1.0535.  It was January 2003 the last time we saw this.  And of course the Parityville Express is still on track for an on-time arrival by the end of the month.  We're only five cents away now.  Given recent moves, that could be accomplished in a single day.

Transportation: IN a bit of bullish divergence, Dow Theory-wise, the trans advanced on a day the Dow declined a bit, up 1.12% with a green marubozu that formed a bullish stochastic crossover and exited the descending RTC for a bullish crossover after bouncing off its lower BB.  This one now looks higher for Thursday.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      2      3       1           2       0.571    357
     And the winner is...

We've now hit some pretty oversold levels and I'm seeing signs of bottoming, particularly in the VIX, the trans and the futures so I'm just going to go ahead and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ gained a bit on Wednesday with a green spinning top. and a stochastic that just eked out a bullish crossover.  We dont' yet have the descending RTC exit for confirmation but I'm blessing this one anyway as a buy.  I took a small position at 47.91 - not the best entry point of the day for sure, but I have other things to do than sit in front of a screen staring at VZ all day.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2053.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ may be a buy in the next day or two.

Recap

Whoa!  I'm sure glad I called Tuesday lower because Mr. Market had a major snit and dumped 333 Dow points in a cascade that ended only because the bell finally rang at 4 PM in Wall St.'s equivalent of the Mercy Rule.  And all this because of the strength of the dollar, interest rate fears, phase of the moon, blah blah doesn't matter, all we need to do is pay attention to the charts.  So let's see how this sets us up for Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow had its worst day since last October 9th with a 1.85% swan dive that plunged right through the lower BB with a giant angry red marubozu taking out two support line sin the process.  And even at that we're still not yet down to extreme oversold levels.  There's nothing on this chart to call a reversal right now.

The VIX: Bang zoom!  The VIX took off like a skyrocket Tuesday with a gap-up 10.82% pop to remain firmly in a steep rising RTC.  Indicators have now hit highly overbought levels but we've not yet hit the upper BB at 17.13.  We have a hanging man but that requires confirmation so I can't call this one lower yet.  I'll note though that VVIX punched up through its 200 day MA - not a good sign.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:37 AM EDT with ES up  0.31%   ES of course was pounded badly on Tuesday breaking key support at 2056 and continuing right on down through its lower BB.  But that has driven all the indicators quite oversold and the stochastic is finally starting to come around into position for an eventual bullish crossover.  And there's a hint of a rally in the overnight, though we've already seen that movie twice before in the past week - a leg down followed by a small bounce, lather rinse repeat.  But this time we're a lot more oversold than back then so the selling may be nearing the end.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot tanks from 2075.42 to 2053.75. And even after that massive dump, we're still below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar just keeps on its inexorable trend to infinity - and beyond with another 1% gap up on Tuesday.  We've now broken all 2009 resistance lines.  In fact, the dollar is now so high, I can't even scroll back far enough in eSignal to find the last time it was higher - the chart ends in 2007;  It does look like it's starting to go exponential though but there's no telling when the blow-off top will come.

Euro:  And of course the euro took another big hit Tuesday, closing this time down to 1.0698.  Less that seven cents left to Parityville.  At its current rate, we're still on track to pull into that station by the end of March.  Look out below!

Transportation:  Everything I wrote about the Dow applies here too.  Big downtrend, no reversal in sight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      2      2       1           2       0.667    385

     And the winner is...

The SPX Hi-Lo index at 31.5 is now down to levels from which previous reversals have come.  And all the charts are looking bearish with the exception of the VIX which is showing a reversal warning and ES which is making a non-trivial move higher in the overnight.  I never like to go against the futures and I think the current move lower may be getting a bit overdone.  It's possible we could get, if not an actual bottom, then something of a DCB on Wednesday so I'm going to go way out on the limb and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote of VZ, "I'm not quite ready to get back in just yet.".  Good thing too because VZ was down another 72 cents Tuesday in action that traded entirely under the lower BB.  This is starting to look like early last December so we're not getting back on this bus until we see some sign that it's going our way - and that isn't just yet. Still, I'll be watching this one intraday on Wednesday.  If it looks to be turning around and the rest of the market is up, I may hop on board for the quick swing.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2075.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ may be a buy soon.

Recap

Bah - I blew Monday's call badly and what's worse I had a bunch of errands to run all day long and never really got a chance to play Stock Market.  I hate it when Real Life (TM) gets in the way of stock trading.  So I guess it's time for another Reader's Digest Condensed Night Owl - we cut right to the chase because that's all the time I have left tonight.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2079.92 to 2075.42.  We remain below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      1      2       1           2       0.600     52

     And the winner is...

Hard to say - the indicators are all oversold now but we remain in a downtrend and have yet to get a good reversal candle.  Monday's rally could be just a relief rally and I'm not liking the overnight ES action.  I do think we're close to an end of the week-long decline but I'm not sure it will be Tuesday.  So I'm going to stick to my guns and call Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I believe VZ is nearing a bottom now but I'm not quite ready to get back in just yet.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2079.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ may be a buy soon.

Recap

Last Thursday I made a conditional call for the Dow based on ES's proximity to its pivot.  That worked very well on Friday with ES noodling about the pivot in the wee hours until breaking decisively below at 8:25 AM as the jobs numbers came out and that was that.  Mr. Market was not amused and down we went.  The question now becomes, after such a quick dump, where's the reversal?  We'll scout the charts for signs.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow started shedding points faster than than my German Shepherd sheds hairs in the opening minute.  And then it got worse.  Mercifully, the bell finally rang to put an end to the carnage, with a broad-based 279 point loss, giving up the 18 support like it wasn't even there.  .  That tall red marubozu took the indicators oversold though the stochastic has yet to begin forming a bullish crossover and the lower BB is still over 100 points away.

The VIX: I was a bit surprised to see the VIX up only 8.26% on Friday though it admittedly did blast right back up through its 200 day MA to remain in a rising RTC.  Indicators also rose and are now close to being overbought.  But not there yet which suggests that the VIX may have enough gas left in the tank to rise further on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:40 AM EDT with ES down 0.16%.  ES took a pounding on Friday to drive its indicators all oversold though the stochastic still hasnt' started curving back around for a bullish crossover.  And until I see that and a bullish reversal candle, this chart just looks ugly. And the overnight isnt' helping either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2098.83 to 2079.92.  We remain under the new pivot so this indicators is now plainly bearish.

Dollar index:  Holy moly - the dollar made a moon shot on Friday, up a whopping 1.26% with a gap up green marubozu that traded entirely above its upper BB.  And it is clearly going exponential now.  And we all know how that ends.  Every time.  So look for a break lower soon.  Maybe not Monday but sometime this week.

Euro:  Jeez - did I say the euro was going to parity in the fourth quarter?  Well judging by its action on Friday, down to 1.0849, it's looking more like by the end of this  month.  I'm not pulling these numbers out of thin air either.  I simply intersect the current regression trend channel with the 1.000 line and that's where it's landing now.  Remember back a few years ago when big rock starts were demanding to be paid in euros rather than dollars?  You don't hear much about that anymore do you?

Transportation:  And finally the trans got hammered just like everything else on Friday with a big red marubozu that sent its indicators oversold.  We're now near the lower BB so I think we may see a bottoming candle here soon, like in a day or two.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      1      1       1           2       0.750     87

     And the winner is...

We let a lot of hot air out of the market last week but I don't think we're quite done just yet basically based on a bevy of bearish charts so I'm just going to go ahead and call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I wrote of VZ "I don't think the selling's done yet here" and hey presto, boom, down we went 1.29% on a big gap down that closed under its lower BB and sent all the indicators oversold.   I have to admit that at 48.36 it's starting to look attractive again.  OTOH I'm also mindful of the old saying that you never buy a stock just because it's down.  So we wait for this falling knife to whizz by.  We will definitely miss the bottom, but we won't get all hacked up.