Friday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2099.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Foo - I thought Mr. Market had had enough last night but apparently not as the Dow sank another 76 on Thursday as the buyers continued to sit on their hands.  Will Friday make them stand up and salute?  Let's see what the charts have to say about that.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow is now in full-on bearish mode with two black crows, a bearish RTC trigger and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  Last night I wrote that "there's nothing technically bullish about this chart" and tonight that goes double.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "this chart just looks higher again on Thursday.".  And indeed it was, up another 5.66% for a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit.  Add in a bullish stochastic crossover and these two white soldiers look ready to march higher still on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 1:48 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%  %.  ES on Thursday did pretty much the same thing as the Dow so my comments above for that go here too.  And the new overnight isn't doing much to dispel that either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2105.67 to 2099.58.  So ES remains below its new pivot and this indicator just continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "this one looks lower again on Thursday" and indeed it was, but just barely with a 0.03% squeaker.  But this little doji star moved the stochastic closer to a bearish crossover and so this chart still looks bearish to me.

Euro:  And on Thursday the euro had a similar doji star as it consolidates at the base of Tuesday's big dump.  But indicators have finally gone oversold and the stochastic is about to give us a bullish crossover so I'd guess this one goes higher on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I figured the trans had gone about as low as they were going to go, and I was wrong.  On Thursday they were stopped only by their lower BB at 8240.   The last time we closed this low was last October 8th!  And the indicators are still a ways from oversold so with two red marubozus on the record, there's still nothing bullish here.  Thanks, Greece.  Thanks for nothing.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      5       3           4       0.688    235

     And the winner is...

Thursday's action only provided bearish confirmation of Wednesday's charts.  If we didn't get a reversal Thursday I don't think we're going to get one Friday as the charts are looking generally ugly.  Now Russell rebalancing could conceivably throw a monkey wrench in the works and I'd love to see a move higher, but I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ was one of only a handful of Dow stocks that managed to rise on Thursday but it was on a red inverted hammer with a bearish stochastic crossover, trading outside its rising RTC again for a bearish trigger.  So VZ remains most definitely not a swing trade buy.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2105.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Bah - those freakin' Greeks continued running our markets on Thursday as news that things were looking grim led to the Dow's worst day in a month.  Meanwhile we have to sit and listen to all the Chicken Littles going "Oh the Chinese are going to take over Greece!" (hah - they're too smart for that). or "A Grexit will give ideas to the rest of the PIGS" (they've already had these ideas).  Puhleeze, can we just get on with it?

Factoids of the week

1. The population of Greece is lass than that of Ohio.

2. In Greece, in the public sector, 7.91% of pensioners retire between the ages of 26 and 50, 23.64% between 51 and 55, and 43.53% between 56 and 61.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "I'd not be going long right now."  Good thing too because on Wednesday the Dow stopped falling only because the bell rang at 4 PM after a 178 point red marubozu.  That was good for a rising RTC bearish trigger and a bearish stochastic crossover.  Aside from the outside possibility of a DCB, there's nothing technically bullish about this char.t

The VIX:  Last night I called for "an even better reversal case [than Tuesday] for Wednesday.".  Well case closed.  The VIX popped right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup with a 9.5% gain while the stochastic curved into position for a bullish crossover..  Technically this chart just looks higher again on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EDT with ES up  0.20%.  On Wednesday ES had its worst day since, uh well just three days ago actually.  You can thanks Greece for this series of sudden irrational dumps.  Generally though, sanity seems to return within a day or two so I'd be careful of running for the exits just quite yet.  And some non-trivial gains in the overnight seem to support that idea.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2116.08 to 2105.67. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  With a giant gap up Tuesday last night I noted the need to wait and see where it would go next.  Turns out it was lower as the big empty space proved too hard to resist.  That's the makings of an evening star so this one looks lower again on Thursday.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "The euro might close higher on Wednesday but I'm not expecting a major retracement"  And so it did close higher, but only back to 1.1218.  QED.  But now that leaves the indicators wandering around between overbought and oversold.  And with little guidance in the new overnight I'm not touching this one for Thursday

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "this chart is looking lower for Wednesday."  And that was that as the trans dove 1.86% for their worst day since, oh well we have another ugly day just on June 8th ... and May 20th.  This is getting to be a habit and a worrisome one at that as the talking heads on CNBC are now starting to invoke the Dow Theory.  And with a slow but steady march lower since, well March, it's hard to argue they don't have a point.  The only good thing here is that we're real close to the lower BB and some month-long support.  I'd have to guess the selling's about over, near term.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      4       3           4       0.733    311

     And the winner is...

Although the charts are generally looking bearish on a purely technical basis, the futures seem to be pointing to the possibility of a relief rally once the traders all wake up and discover that the sun is still rising in the east and the sky is still up in the air.  That said, the market is going to be subject to the whims of the current Greek comedy and that's no doubt going to go right down to the wire.  So I'm going to call Thursday cautiously higher with the caveat that it will take just one news release from the ECB, the Greek finance minister, or the Oracle at Delphi to change everything.

Single Stock Trader

VZ of course got pounded on Wednesday along with the rest of the Dow (except for  AAPL which honest to God isn't a "real" Dow stock).  But the damage was done, with a rising RTC exit for a bearish setup and indicators hovering just shy of overbought.  Definitely not a swing trade buy here.

Wednesday dependson ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher only if ES stays above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2116.08.  Current ES direction uncertain..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

On Tuesday the market advanced again  but the stress of pushing past recent resistance was evident as the Dow fell back from early gains to finish up just 24 points.  Add in the ongoing Greek drama, Act MCMLXVIII and we have an interesting situation.  Let's see what the chart make of this.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow managed to close above recent resistance, just barely but was unable to break intraday highs.  The result was a lopsided green spinning top with indicators just shy of overbought.  It's not a great situation for the bulls.  I'd not be going long right now.

The VIX:  Last night I noted the lower BB touch for the VIX and suggested that might mean higher from there.  But in closing I also noted that this wasn't a given.  And indeed on Tuesday the VIX revisited and closed below its lower BB for a 5% gap-down loss stopping right on two month-long support.  This now looks like an even better reversal case for Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat  at 12:46 AM EDT with ES down a single tick.  ES did attempt to move higher on Tuesday but the 2021 area remains a sticking point.  Right now it's gone overbought and with a dark cloud cover forming beside Monday's spinning top, the whole chart is looking tired.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  again from 2112.75 to 2116.08. But that leaves ES sitting smack dab exactly on top of the new pivot so until it decides which side of the fence to fall on, this indicator is a toss-up.

Dollar index:  Holy moly!  Last night I did write that "there now seems to be more upside potential here than downside risk" but I sure wasn't expecting a monster 1.20% gap-up moonshot.  That popped the dollar right out of its month-long descending RTC for a bullish setup even as the indicators are only just off oversold.  But with such a yawning chasm now below us, I need to wait as see if the buck is going to retrace on Wednesday or not.

Euro:  And of course the euro on Tuesday correspondingly took a big dump, all the way back to 1.1180,  falling right out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup, and sending the indicators all on their way towards oversold.  There's a bit of a rally going on in the overnight but it has the feel of a DCB to it.  The euro might close higher on Wednesday but I'm not expecting a major retracement.

Transportation:  And finally in a bit of bearish divergence the trans started looking toppy on Tuesday with a 0.15% drop on a day the broader market was higher.  A tall inverted hammer unable to close above Tuesday's candle nearly touched their upper BB and left the stochastic about to form a bearish crossover.  So this chart is looking lower for Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      4       3           3       0.714    311

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are showing some signs of toppiness but not enough to just go ahead and call the market outright lower.  But with ES sitting on top of its pivot, it's a perfect time for a conditional call.  It goes like this: if ES breaks higher (above its pivot) by mid-morning Wednesday, then we'll close higher.  And if it falls below the pivot, we close lower.  Doesn't always work, but it's all I've got.  I think Greece is going to be running the market until the end of the month anyway.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday VZ rose again a bit bu on an inverted hammer that formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  It's definitely not a swing trade buy at this point.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher....
• ES pivot 2112.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The Greek deal, or possibility of a deal, or talk of a deal or whatever wa neatly telegraphed Sunday night and resulted in a triple digit gain for the Dow on Monday.  So let's move on to Tuesday and see what those slippery Greeks have in store for us now.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow retraced all of Friday's losses but that still leaves us right on resistance at 18,120.  Indicators are noodling about between oversold and overbought so there's really not much to go on here.

The VIX:  The descending RTC asserted itself on Monday as the VIX lost 8.74% to just touch its lower BB before recovering a bit.  The indicators are not yet oversold but BB touches have marked bottoms the last 12 out of 12 times they've happened (that's as far back as I looked).  So I'd have to guess the VIX may go higher on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:48 AM EDT with ES up  0.27%.  Last night I mentioned the bullish aspect to this chart and on Monday it rose nicely, touching its upper BB on the dot (2122) intraday.  Indicators are no longer overbought and the new overnight didn't even bother testing resistance at 2115, instead gapping up right through it.  At this point it looks like a revisit of Monday's high is coming.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2104.17 to 2112.75.  That leaves ES still above its new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night of the dollar I wrote that "it's just possible we go higher again on Monday."  And that possibility came to be with a 0.26% gain on a bullish harami.  With indicators still oversold there now seems to be more upside potential here than downside risk.

Euro:  On Monday the euro continued its recent string of dojis, all reflecting the ongoing nonsense in Greece with a red spinning top back down to 1.1350.  That nonetheless keeps it in its rising RTC, though just barely.  With a stochastic just squeaking out a bearish crossover the overnight will tell the tale.

Transportation:  After an opaque Sunday night the trans managed a nice 0.81% gain on Monday to break resistance at 8450.  Next resistance is 8512 and with indicators not yet overbought I'd expect to see this level on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       6      4       3           3       0.692    287


     And the winner is...

The only sign on tonight's chart at all bearish is the VIX, and it's far from certain it will reverse on Tuesday so I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday VZ gained a few cents but on a red spinning top as a bearish harami so I'm still not on board.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher....
• ES pivot 2104.14.  Holding above is bullish.  Now running "U" contract.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Sigh - last week I said Thursday would go lower, so it went higher.  And then I said Friday would go higher, so of course it went lower.  It's amazing I have any hair left at all after pulling it all out.   But then if this was easy, everybody would be doing it.  So with the Fed and op-ex out of the way let's see if I can get Monday right as we begin  the last full week of this miserable month.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a nice advance last Thursday, the Dow gave it all back Friday with a red inside harami that flattened out the stochastic  a if to prepare for a bearish crossover.  Or we could just be back in one of these alternating up/down patterns again, with the Dow changing direction every day for the past five.  The short-term trend remains higher.

The VIX:  Shoot - I figured the VIX was going lower for sure on Friday but it didn't, up instead nearly 6%. for a bullish harami though we remain in a descending RTC.  Chalk it up to op-ex shenanigans I guess.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:25 AM EDT with ES gapping up 0.43%  On Friday ES retraced 2/3 of Thursday's gains with a more or less dark cloud cover thingee that combined with overbought indicators looked bearish.  But the new overnight gapped up significantly, possibly on some kind of positive news on Greece.  And that was enough to unbend the stochastic so it's no longer forming a bearish crossover.  And the new candle is a bullish harami so far.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2105.33 to 2104.14.  But it's the big overnight pop in ES that has pushed it back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.As a reminder, we've switched over to the "U" contract.

Dollar index:  At least I was right about the dollar on Friday.  It did go higher - all of 0.03%, and on a funny red candle at that.  We remain in a descending RTC but we did bounce off the lower BB and with indicators continuing oversold, it's just possible we go higher again on Monday.

Euro:  Last Thursday the euro was showing signs of moving lower but I wasn't confident enough to call it.  Too bad too because the euro had its first down day in three with a red spinning top that failed to beat Thursday's highs.  With new resistance in place around 1.14 and overbought indicators the euro may have trouble rising further on Monday.

Transportation:  And to round it out, I was also wrong about the trans, which were unable to capitalize on Thursday's gains and dropped 0.38% on Friday with an inverted hammer in dark cloud cover position.  Trading outside the descending RTC, it's a bullish trigger though.  So with two conflicting predictors here, this one's a wash.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       5      4       3           3       0.667    183

     And the winner is...

Tonight the overall look of the charts is fairly indecisive with the one notable exception of the futures which are rallying sharply.  Since that's more current than  whatever happened last Friday, I'm going with that and calling Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ failed to clear resistance last Friday and with another dip that takes it back off the swing buy list.