Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher....
• ES pivot 2112.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The Greek deal, or possibility of a deal, or talk of a deal or whatever wa neatly telegraphed Sunday night and resulted in a triple digit gain for the Dow on Monday.  So let's move on to Tuesday and see what those slippery Greeks have in store for us now.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow retraced all of Friday's losses but that still leaves us right on resistance at 18,120.  Indicators are noodling about between oversold and overbought so there's really not much to go on here.

The VIX:  The descending RTC asserted itself on Monday as the VIX lost 8.74% to just touch its lower BB before recovering a bit.  The indicators are not yet oversold but BB touches have marked bottoms the last 12 out of 12 times they've happened (that's as far back as I looked).  So I'd have to guess the VIX may go higher on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:48 AM EDT with ES up  0.27%.  Last night I mentioned the bullish aspect to this chart and on Monday it rose nicely, touching its upper BB on the dot (2122) intraday.  Indicators are no longer overbought and the new overnight didn't even bother testing resistance at 2115, instead gapping up right through it.  At this point it looks like a revisit of Monday's high is coming.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2104.17 to 2112.75.  That leaves ES still above its new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night of the dollar I wrote that "it's just possible we go higher again on Monday."  And that possibility came to be with a 0.26% gain on a bullish harami.  With indicators still oversold there now seems to be more upside potential here than downside risk.

Euro:  On Monday the euro continued its recent string of dojis, all reflecting the ongoing nonsense in Greece with a red spinning top back down to 1.1350.  That nonetheless keeps it in its rising RTC, though just barely.  With a stochastic just squeaking out a bearish crossover the overnight will tell the tale.

Transportation:  After an opaque Sunday night the trans managed a nice 0.81% gain on Monday to break resistance at 8450.  Next resistance is 8512 and with indicators not yet overbought I'd expect to see this level on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       6      4       3           3       0.692    287


     And the winner is...

The only sign on tonight's chart at all bearish is the VIX, and it's far from certain it will reverse on Tuesday so I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday VZ gained a few cents but on a red spinning top as a bearish harami so I'm still not on board.