Monday, June 22, 2015

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher....
  • ES pivot 2104.14.  Holding above is bullish.  Now running "U" contract.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Sigh - last week I said Thursday would go lower, so it went higher.  And then I said Friday would go higher, so of course it went lower.  It's amazing I have any hair left at all after pulling it all out.   But then if this was easy, everybody would be doing it.  So with the Fed and op-ex out of the way let's see if I can get Monday right as we begin  the last full week of this miserable month.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a nice advance last Thursday, the Dow gave it all back Friday with a red inside harami that flattened out the stochastic  a if to prepare for a bearish crossover.  Or we could just be back in one of these alternating up/down patterns again, with the Dow changing direction every day for the past five.  The short-term trend remains higher.

The VIX:  Shoot - I figured the VIX was going lower for sure on Friday but it didn't, up instead nearly 6%. for a bullish harami though we remain in a descending RTC.  Chalk it up to op-ex shenanigans I guess.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:25 AM EDT with ES gapping up 0.43%  On Friday ES retraced 2/3 of Thursday's gains with a more or less dark cloud cover thingee that combined with overbought indicators looked bearish.  But the new overnight gapped up significantly, possibly on some kind of positive news on Greece.  And that was enough to unbend the stochastic so it's no longer forming a bearish crossover.  And the new candle is a bullish harami so far.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2105.33 to 2104.14.  But it's the big overnight pop in ES that has pushed it back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.As a reminder, we've switched over to the "U" contract.

Dollar index:  At least I was right about the dollar on Friday.  It did go higher - all of 0.03%, and on a funny red candle at that.  We remain in a descending RTC but we did bounce off the lower BB and with indicators continuing oversold, it's just possible we go higher again on Monday.

Euro:  Last Thursday the euro was showing signs of moving lower but I wasn't confident enough to call it.  Too bad too because the euro had its first down day in three with a red spinning top that failed to beat Thursday's highs.  With new resistance in place around 1.14 and overbought indicators the euro may have trouble rising further on Monday.

Transportation:  And to round it out, I was also wrong about the trans, which were unable to capitalize on Thursday's gains and dropped 0.38% on Friday with an inverted hammer in dark cloud cover position.  Trading outside the descending RTC, it's a bullish trigger though.  So with two conflicting predictors here, this one's a wash.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       5      4       3           3       0.667    183

     And the winner is...

Tonight the overall look of the charts is fairly indecisive with the one notable exception of the futures which are rallying sharply.  Since that's more current than  whatever happened last Friday, I'm going with that and calling Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ failed to clear resistance last Friday and with another dip that takes it back off the swing buy list.

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