Friday, May 9, 2014

No call Friday

I'm terribly sorry but my schedule just got extraordinarily backed up on Thursday and I never really had the time I need to devote to the markets and to put together the daily blog post.  So I'm just taking a personal day tonight.  We'll return with the customary chart rundown as usual on Sunday night.  See you then!

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1868.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Sigh - sometimes you just can win for losing.  I thought the market was going lower on Wednesday, but instead it went higher, with the Dow up triple digits, for whatever reason.  Doh!  Well that was then, as they say, this is now.  Perhaps the charts will give us the key to Thursday for a change.

The technicals

The Dow: On Wednesday the Dow gave us a big bullish harami that was enough to bend the indicators higher after  week-long slide off overbought..  It still counts as a descending RTC but the candle is a bullish reversal warning.

The VIX: I blew this one too - the VIX did not go higher on Wednesday, it went lower by 2.90% but only after a failed test of the 200 day MA that left us with a giant inverted hammer.  That said it's now looking like a developing symmetrical triangle, which makes me think the break could very well be lower.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:41 AM EDT with ES up just 0.04%.  On Wednesday ES retraced most of Tuesday's losses thereby canceling what finally looked like a break lower.  We're now back in a funny nervous sort of trading range sort of like we saw March 18th through 26th.  This chart is remarkably opaque, at least to me tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips exactly one point from 1869.17 to 1868.17.  We broke above the old number Wednesday afternoon, so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index:  Well hallelujah - I got one right.  Last night I wrote "the dollar's going higher on Wednesday." and it did, recovering 0.14% after a trouncing on Tuesday.  But that still leaves us on the lower BB with indicators extremely oversold.  So with the inverted hammer confirmed, I have to think Thursday's going higher.

Euro: On Wednesday the euro took a breather with a stubby spinning top near the high of Tuesday' big advance, centering around the upper BB.  But it looks like that was it, as the overnight is now moving lower as the overbought indicators begin to assert themselves.

Transportation: And last but not least, I missed the trans too, which moved higher by 0.57% on Wednesday, not lower. That counts as a bullish RTC setup even as the indicators remain overbought.  So they cancel each other out and this chart is too tough to call.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
   
May        0       3      2           0       0.000   -158

     And the winner is...

Gosh, I don't know - I'm just not feeling the love tonight.  I hate to do it again but tonight I'm just going to have to shrug and call Thursday uncertain.  Remember, there's no rule that says you have to trade.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $111,625 after three trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 3 for 3 total, 2 for 2 long, 1 for 1 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday lower, medium confidence.
  • ES pivot 1869.17.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Well I'm glad I called Tuesday as uncertain because I wasn't expecting as 130 point dump from the Dow.  The nice thing is that it resolved a number of ambiguities in the charts, as we shall now examine with an eye to Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow: I guess I was right last night when I wrote "the overall impression continues to look negative here."  Tuesday's big read marubozu confirmed the bearish stochastic crossover, kept us way off the left edge of the descending RTC and drove the indicators further off overbought.  Now there's some support at 16,360 but I see no reason why we can't reach that number on Wednesday.

The VIX: Well some sanity finally returned to the VIX on Tuesday as it rose 3.84% to the Dow's 0.78% drop with a green hanging man.  But it also gave us a descending RTC exit for a bullish trigger, so go figure (hey that rhymes).  My overall impression though is that the VIX wants to go higher again on Wednesday.  This is supported by a VVIX that has itself found support and is now quite oversold.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:21 AM EDT with ES down  0.07%.   After waffling inconclusively for several days, ES finally broke down on Tuesday giving up nearly all of last weeks gains.  The indicators are all once again lined up and headed lower and there are no candlestick reversal signs so this chart just looks bearish tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1872.08 to 1869.17.  Even with that drop we remain below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Whoa!  On Tuesday the dollar just fell out of bed with a Grand Canyon gap-down that traded entirely way below its lower BB and ending at its lowest level since last October with a small gravestone doji. That pushed the indicators further into oversold and gave us 2/3 of a bullish morning star.  This kind of gap just begs retracing, so if I had to guess I'd say the dollar's going higher on Wednesday.

Euro: And on Tuesday the euro broke out of its railroad track-straight rising RTC - but to the upside, stopping right at resistance at 1.3934, also it's highest level since last October.  That also hit the upper BB and took the indicators overbought.  I'd expect the euro to take a rest after this move and the overnight so far seems to be supporting that idea, down 0.05% at the moment.

Transportation: After a confusing sequence of inverted hammer, hammer, on Tuesday the trans finally rejected Monday's reversal sign and confirmed the trend - lower.  We also now have a new bearish stochastic crossover and with the new candle just a vaguely spinning toppish sort of thing, I'd say this chart has lower to go.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
 
May        0       2      2           0       0.000    -40

     And the winner is...

Tonight we see mostly bearish signs in the charts.  The Morningstar Market Fair Value Index has come back to 1.02, but that's still a bit high for a reversal.  And the SPX Hi-Lo index similarly has not dropped far enough yet to call an imminent reversal.  Same for the NYSE A/D line - it's down, but not extremely so.  Dr. Copper's drifting lower, the TLT is in an uptrend, and Wednesday is historically quite bearish so all in all I really don't think it's unreasonable to call Wednesday lower.

Laff of the week

Here's a comment I got in an email from blogspot this evening:
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "The Rise and Fall of Eastman Kodak":

Hi there, i read your bllog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just curious iff
you get a lot of spam remarks? If soo how do you prevent it, any plugin
or anything yoou can recommend? I get sso much lately it's driving mme crazzy so any assistance is
very much appreciated.

Here is my web-site :: [gratuitous spam site redacted]
Publish
Delete
Mark as spam    <--- here="" i="" pal.="" right="">
OK well since you ask, oh my yes indeedy I do get lots and lots of spam.  It drives me crazzy too.  My first suggestion is to clean your keyboard or buy a new one with better debouncing, and run spell-check on your posts.  Then, enable comment moderation so you don't automatically publish nonsense from spammers posing as bloggers trying to prevent spam.  Thanks for the minor amusement.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $111,625 after three trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 3 for 3 total, 2 for 2 long, 1 for 1 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1872.08.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

We were right about Monday going lower - for the first 15 minutes.  From there it was just a slow grind back up to above water for an eventual gain of a whopping 18 points.  Such is the nature of forecasting.  No matter - it was an interesting candle so let's examine the fallout for clues to Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow: On Monday the Dow gave us a tall hammer.  However, the indicators continue to look bearish.  And the overall impression continues to look negative here.

The VIX: Amazingly, for the third day in a row, the VIX has been trading in positive correlation to the market - this time up 2.94% even as both the Dow and SPX were higher on Monday.  Now it was on a tall red candle that popped out of the descending RTC before nearly dropping back in... OK, hey I just don't get this.  I'm going to have to go into observation mode only here.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:21 AM EDT with ES up 0.16%.    On Monday ES put in a long-legged doji that traded outside its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Also, the indicators  are now overbought.  But the question is, is this star signaling a reversal of the last two days of declines, or the longer four day rising trend?  The pin action in the overnight would seem to suggest the former.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 1877.33 to 1872.08.  This fall is mostly responsible for ES now being above the new pivot, but that turns this indicator bullish anyway.

Dollar index:  After a big failed breakout attempt last Friday the dollah settled for a tiny star on Monday, down just 0.04%.  Being as we're now still oversold and near some good support, I'd have to say this means a move higher on Tuesday.

Euro: Like the rest of the market, the euro is in something of a holding pattern lately, with just a small star on Monday right around the 1.3878 resistance line.

Transportation: Some bearish divergence on the trans on Monday as they dropped 0.30% even as the Dow rose, giving us a hammer to follow Friday's hanging man.  This evinces confusion more than anything else.  The stochastic, often a better indicator, is about to form a bearish crossover - and a bearish RTC exit, so that's what I'm going with.  Trans lower on Tuesday.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
 

May        0       2      1           0       0.000    -40

     And the winner is...

We seem to have another rubber duckie market on our hands right now.  The bears try hard to push him underwater, but he just keeps popping back to the top of the tub  The technicals are mostly bearish tonight, with the one exception of the futures.  And because the bears seem to be having so much trouble taking over lately, I'm just going to call Tuesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $111,625 after three trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 3 for 3 total, 2 for 2 long, 1 for 1 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Monday, May 5, 2014

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1877.50.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

I wasn't really sure which way we were going last Friday but the ultimate verdict was lower on a number of economic and geo-political factors.  So now we might have some more clarity to pick a direction for the new week, and we'll get right to it.

The technicals

The Dow: The Dow did it's part to dispel the uncertainty on Friday.  Though it lost only 46 points, it was a bearish RTC trigger along with a new bearish stochastic crossover.  With momentum, OBV, and RSI all headed lower now, this chart now looks bearish.

The VIX:  Ah, but the mystery deepens.  On Friday, for the second day in a row, the VIX continued its highly unusual positive correlation to the rest of the market.  Normally, VIX goes down, market goes up.  On Friday, they both went down.  IN fact the VIX is now in a five day losing streak.  And with support at 13 broken and falling indicators, there's no reversal in sight.  I've not heard any theories about why the VIX is suddenly correlated with the market.  In over 10 years of doing this, I've never seen this.

Market index futures: Tonight  all three futures are lower at 12:27 EDT with ES down 0.13%.  ES, like the euro below, is giving signs of heading lower.  Last Thursday we got a spinning top, and then another, larger one on Friday sitting just below Thursday's candle.  Now the new Sunday overnight is trading below that, and outsid3e the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  That has also sent all the indicators lower and formed a new bearish stochastic crossover.  That all spells lower in my book.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 1877.33 to 1877.50.   That leaves us below the new pivot so this indicator is now bearish.

Dollar index: The dollar has an interesting day Friday, opening way up only to collapse back to Thrusday' close for a net loss of 0.02% on a tall red candle.  That keeps us in a descending RTC and kind of puts the kabosh on any aspirations of a higher dollar Monday.

Euro: The euro is now giving some signs of wanting to go lower.  Thursday was a gravestone doji followed by a tall star doji on Friday  While the overnight is a bit higher, it's on another star with a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover.  Resistance is quite strong around 1.3885 and I don't see the euro breaching that on Monday.

Transportation: On Friday the trans fell along with the Dow for a dark cloud-coverish affair that also generated a bearish RTC setup.   But the indicators are indecisive, so the general tenor is bearish but not conclusively so.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        0       1      1           0       0.000    -22

     And the winner is...

Tonight the technicals are looking fairly bearish and there's some noise on the wires of things heating up in the Ukraine.  Also, we have now exited the historically favorable first two days of May and are now entering the "sell in May" zone.  So all things considered, I'm just going to call Monday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $111,625 after three trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 3 for 3 total, 2 for 2 long, 1 for 1 short.  Tonight we stand aside.