Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2024.25.  Holding above is bullish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Ka-ching!

The Dow made it five up in a row on Thrusday, gaining another respectable 156 points amid a sea of green on St. Patrick's Day to extend a more than month-long run higher.  The talking heads on TV were all excited about the fact that we're now exactly back to where we began the year.   Okey dokey, whatever.  We now move on to op-ex Friday, and a triple-witching at that.

The technicals

The Dow:  And on Thursday the Dow had it best day in a week as it jumped nearly a percent to just hit its upper BB at 17518 on a tall green near-marubozu.  But that lef tthe indicators crazy overbought (RSI = 99!).  Still without a reversal candle in sight and no resistance til 17,713, I can't call this chart lower yet.

The VIX: Last night I thought it might be possible for the VIX to catch a break on Thursday.  But it wasn't and it couldn't as it lost another 3.67% as the "deibble down the lower BB" scenario in fact played out.  That sent the indicators to quite oversold levels and leaves the VIX right on six month-long support.  But like the Dow, without a reversal candle, I can't call this one higher yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EDT with ES up 0.11%.  After a great day on Wednesday, ES did it again on Thursday closing at 2030.25.  The 200 day MA crossing is now nicely consolidated and the new overnight jusdt keeps on climbing so I clearly can't call this one lower yet.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2012.33 to 2024.25. Once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

$USDUPX, daily

Dollar index:   Whoa!  On Thursday, the bottom absolutely fell out of the dollar as it gapped down 1.18% trading entirely below its lower BB.  Just look at this chart (click to enlarge).  We're now nearing support from last October and with such a yawning gap above, a DCB is not out of the question, but this is the sort of move that requires confirmation.

Euro:  And similarly, on Thursday the euro had a great day, shooting back up through its upper BB to 1.13475, after a similarly great day on Wednesday.  Indicators remain highly overbought and have in fact been overbought for seven days now, the longest period since last May.  We're also right on six-month resistance, and with the euro stalled out in the new overnight, it's not clear if it still has the mojo needed to move higher on Friday.

Transportation:  On Thursday the trans had an absolutely stellar day, handily outperforming the Dow (Dow theorists, take note) with a monster three percent rocketship green marubozu that blasted right though its 200 day MA and never looked back.  That keeps the rally off the January lows alive and like the other charts, I can't call it lower yet despite indicators now at extreme overbought levels.  And also note that the 200 day MA which has been falling since last June seems to be flattening out - a bullish sign.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      5      3       3           1       0.667     125

     And the winner is...

The short-term overboughtedness of the charts is starting to concern me and although the futures ar emodestly higher as I write, I note that on March op-ex day the Dow has been down 5 of the last 7 according to The Stock Trders Almanac.  On the other hand there still aren't any outright bearish reversal candles or stochastics for me to make a negative call.  So I guess that just leaves Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2012.33.  Holding above is bullish.  Now running the "M" contract.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

True to form, the market was pretty much becalmed on Wednesday ahead of the Fed - and then things got jittery.  As soon as Auntie Jant spaketh, Mr. Market liked it.  Then he didn't like it.  Until finally in the end he did like it after all and the Dow finished up a decent 74 points.  So, much to my relief higher interest rates have been kept at bay once again at least for a while longer.  Now maybe we can get down to business and figure out where Thursday is headed as op-ex week rolls on.

The technicals

The Dow:  After factoring out the intraday Fed noise, the Dow ended with a solid 0.43% gain on Wednesday for a fat green spinning top that now very nearly brings us to break-even on the year so far.  The upper BB continues to run away and while all the indicators are nwo overbought, there's no reversal candle here so this chart looks higher again for Thursday.

The VIX: The VIX had a bad day indeed on Wednesday, falling 11% on a gap down red near marubozu. That was stopped only by its lower BB at 14.99. And that sent all the indicators oversold and was also enough to cause the stochastic to start narrowing around for a bullish crossover though it's not anywhere near being complete yet. So at this point it's open to debate whether the VIX ca bounce off its lower BB on Thursday or if it will start dribbling down it. Being that 15 is a multi-month support level for the VIX I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a slight retracement here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:11 AM EDT with ES up 0.30%.  ES also had a good day Wednesday, conducting a second successive and successgul retest of its 200 day MA before motoring higher to close at 2017.25.  That sent the indicators to exteme overbought levels but it's continuing to power higher in the overnight.  So without a reversal candle, we can't call this one lower.

ES daily pivot: With options expiration at hand, tonight we shift from the H contract to the M contract.  The ES daily pivot rises from 2003.08 to 2012.33. That leaves  ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   And after the big Fed announcement on Wednesday the dollar as might be expected moved lower big-time, down three-quarters of a percent and stopping only on its lower BB after putting in a tall red candle. That sent all the indicators right back to oversold after only having recently come off it. The stochastic continues to lie flat on the ground and has no predictive power. We also bounced off the February lows intraday so it's not clear whether the candle or the history will prevail on Thursday.

Euro:  And of course in mirror image to the dollar on Wednesday the euro took a big pop to finish right back up to 1.2245, the best close since February 12th. It also just tested its upper BB at 1.1267 before falling back a bit. This move also drove all the indicators back to extreme overbought levels about where they've been sitting since for a week now. You'd think after a move like this it would be ready for some retracement but the overnight continues non-trivially higher making it look like there could be another higher close in store on Thursday.

Transportation:  Like everything else on Wednesday the trans had a great day putting in a 1.08% advance with a tall green candle that was also a bullish engulfing pattern. Indicators continue to rise but have not yet hit overbought. We also successfully broke through resistance at 7692, and with the upper BB not until 7795 it looks like there's still at least a bit of room to run higher .

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      4      3       3           1       0.624     -31


     And the winner is...

With a number of important 200 MA crossings behind us, no reversal signs on the charts, and oil moving higher again, I see no reason not to call Thursday higher.  This week is historically the bullish "sweet spot" of March anyway, to quote The Stock Traders Almanac.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2013.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

It was a risky call as I acknowledged last night and while both the SPX and the Nasdaq did indeed finish lower, the Dow somehow managed to eke out a 22 point gain despite an early dump out the gate, and so there went my call for a lower close on Tuesday.  Oh well - the damage wa certainly limited.  Now we move on to Fed Day on Wednesday.  It's my long-standing policy to always call Fed days as "uncertain" just because there's really no telling what the heck they're going to say, and there's also no telling whether Mr. Market will take good news as good news or bad news and vice-versa.  So there's no point in doing any detailed analyses of charts tonight.  We'll pick up where we left off,Wednesday night after the dust has settled.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:15AM EDT with ES up a mere 0.02%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2018/42 to 2013.25. That has the effect of putting ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips right back to bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      4      3       2           1       0.624     -31



     And the winner is...

Once again we;re seeing very little movement in the overnight futures as I expect that most people will be sitting on their hands until they hear what Auntie Janet has to say at 2 PM Wednesday.  Then we might see a few good scalping opportrunities for the fleet of finger.  In the meantime all I can do is call Wednesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2018.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

3/14/16

Looks like I picked a good night to take a day off last night as the major averages went nowhere on Monday with the Dow up all of 16 points and the SPX down two and a half.  But that's perhaps to be expected on a triple witching week with a Fed day on top of that.  Let's now see if there's anything to be gained for Tuesday from the charts tonight.

[Google's spell checker is still non-functinal so once again I apologize for any uncaught typos in this post.  Google, you stupid %$*^'s, you've gotten too big to listen to your customers?  Karma wwill fix that eventually.]

The technicals


The Dow:  After a big day last Friday the Dow made little further headway on Monday, with just a 0.09% gain on  short green spinning top.  We're back in the black for the year and back above the 200 day MA but we also now have a reversal candle on overbought indicators.  But with such a loaded week on tap, it's really hard to say.

The VIX: The VIX was about as conflicted as it gets on Monday, gaining 2.55% on a lopsided red spinning top.  But that also caused a bearish stochastic crossover though RSI continues to rise.  Go figure.  Thi is a reversal sign that definitely requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:12 AM EDT with ES down 0.26%.  After a great day last Friday, ESstalled out on Monday putting in yes, also a doji star right at the top of Friday's rocketship candle.  Indicators remain overbought and the new overnight seems to be confirming the doji at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2009.92 to 2018.42.  That's enough to put ES back below its new pivot, so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:   After an unprecedented ECB-induced cliff-dive last Thursday, the dollar retraced a bit last Friday ad a bit more on Monday.  That's only natural.  Indicators remain oversold but the stochastic also remains pasted to the floor.  The candle is indeterminate and could be construed as a dark cloud cover but there's nto much to back that up.  Overall, it look only vaguely bullish.


Euro:  But supporting my dollar theory, on Monday the euro retreated back to 1.1124 on oindicators that remain overbought.  With three days of lower highs and 1.1214 looking like strong reistance now, there seems to be more downside risk than upside potential here at this point.

Transportation:  Like everythign else on Monday, teh trans put in their own tall doji star, down just 0.03% in a move that confirmed a bullishs tochastic crossover but sent RSI moving lower.  The other indicators are wandering aroudn aimlessly between overbought and oversold, so who knows?

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      4      2       2           1       0.714      -9

     And the winner is...

With a vertiable herd of dojis on the charts tonight indecision abounds.  And I think it's going to stay that way right through the upcoming Fed announcement on Wednesday.  I 'm also convinced another interest rate hike is off the table this month.  In the meantime, these charts are about as indecisive as I've ever seen, except for the futures which are guiding lower.  Now it sometimes happens that these are sucker moves but with reversal signs following a big one day move, some retracement seems appropriate so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2009.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

In honor of the return of Daylight Savings Time (seems like we just ended it), I'm taking the night off, so no official call tonight.  That's one of the advantages of working for yourself.  We'll just update the stats.  The regular schedule resumes Monday night.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:22 AM EDT with ES down 0.15%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 1988.75 to 2009.92.  That leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      4      2       2           1       0.714      -9



     And the winner is...

OK, so I will say this.  From the quick look I did take at the Sunday night charts, things are looking vaguely lower for Monday, but that's not an official call and it won't count in the stats..

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight