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- Friday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2024.25. Holding above is bullish..
- Next week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: no trade.
The Dow: And on Thursday the Dow had it best day in a week as it jumped nearly a percent to just hit its upper BB at 17518 on a tall green near-marubozu. But that lef tthe indicators crazy overbought (RSI = 99!). Still without a reversal candle in sight and no resistance til 17,713, I can't call this chart lower yet.
The VIX: Last night I thought it might be possible for the VIX to catch a break on Thursday. But it wasn't and it couldn't as it lost another 3.67% as the "deibble down the lower BB" scenario in fact played out. That sent the indicators to quite oversold levels and leaves the VIX right on six month-long support. But like the Dow, without a reversal candle, I can't call this one higher yet.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EDT with ES up 0.11%. After a great day on Wednesday, ES did it again on Thursday closing at 2030.25. The 200 day MA crossing is now nicely consolidated and the new overnight jusdt keeps on climbing so I clearly can't call this one lower yet.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2012.33 to 2024.25. Once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.
Euro: And similarly, on Thursday the euro had a great day, shooting back up through its upper BB to 1.13475, after a similarly great day on Wednesday. Indicators remain highly overbought and have in fact been overbought for seven days now, the longest period since last May. We're also right on six-month resistance, and with the euro stalled out in the new overnight, it's not clear if it still has the mojo needed to move higher on Friday.
Transportation: On Thursday the trans had an absolutely stellar day, handily outperforming the Dow (Dow theorists, take note) with a monster three percent rocketship green marubozu that blasted right though its 200 day MA and never looked back. That keeps the rally off the January lows alive and like the other charts, I can't call it lower yet despite indicators now at extreme overbought levels. And also note that the 200 day MA which has been falling since last June seems to be flattening out - a bullish sign.
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 5 3 3 1 0.667 125
And the winner is...
The short-term overboughtedness of the charts is starting to concern me and although the futures ar emodestly higher as I write, I note that on March op-ex day the Dow has been down 5 of the last 7 according to The Stock Trders Almanac. On the other hand there still aren't any outright bearish reversal candles or stochastics for me to make a negative call. So I guess that just leaves Friday uncertain. That's all she wrote. See you again Sunday night!
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight..