Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2018.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

3/14/16

Looks like I picked a good night to take a day off last night as the major averages went nowhere on Monday with the Dow up all of 16 points and the SPX down two and a half.  But that's perhaps to be expected on a triple witching week with a Fed day on top of that.  Let's now see if there's anything to be gained for Tuesday from the charts tonight.

[Google's spell checker is still non-functinal so once again I apologize for any uncaught typos in this post.  Google, you stupid %$*^'s, you've gotten too big to listen to your customers?  Karma wwill fix that eventually.]

The technicals


The Dow:  After a big day last Friday the Dow made little further headway on Monday, with just a 0.09% gain on  short green spinning top.  We're back in the black for the year and back above the 200 day MA but we also now have a reversal candle on overbought indicators.  But with such a loaded week on tap, it's really hard to say.

The VIX: The VIX was about as conflicted as it gets on Monday, gaining 2.55% on a lopsided red spinning top.  But that also caused a bearish stochastic crossover though RSI continues to rise.  Go figure.  Thi is a reversal sign that definitely requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:12 AM EDT with ES down 0.26%.  After a great day last Friday, ESstalled out on Monday putting in yes, also a doji star right at the top of Friday's rocketship candle.  Indicators remain overbought and the new overnight seems to be confirming the doji at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2009.92 to 2018.42.  That's enough to put ES back below its new pivot, so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:   After an unprecedented ECB-induced cliff-dive last Thursday, the dollar retraced a bit last Friday ad a bit more on Monday.  That's only natural.  Indicators remain oversold but the stochastic also remains pasted to the floor.  The candle is indeterminate and could be construed as a dark cloud cover but there's nto much to back that up.  Overall, it look only vaguely bullish.


Euro:  But supporting my dollar theory, on Monday the euro retreated back to 1.1124 on oindicators that remain overbought.  With three days of lower highs and 1.1214 looking like strong reistance now, there seems to be more downside risk than upside potential here at this point.

Transportation:  Like everythign else on Monday, teh trans put in their own tall doji star, down just 0.03% in a move that confirmed a bullishs tochastic crossover but sent RSI moving lower.  The other indicators are wandering aroudn aimlessly between overbought and oversold, so who knows?

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      4      2       2           1       0.714      -9

     And the winner is...

With a vertiable herd of dojis on the charts tonight indecision abounds.  And I think it's going to stay that way right through the upcoming Fed announcement on Wednesday.  I 'm also convinced another interest rate hike is off the table this month.  In the meantime, these charts are about as indecisive as I've ever seen, except for the futures which are guiding lower.  Now it sometimes happens that these are sucker moves but with reversal signs following a big one day move, some retracement seems appropriate so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..