Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2113.67.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week  bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well so much for indecision.  Mr. Market decided a triple digit post-Fed celebration was in order on Thursday, contrary to my expectations.  Oh well - I'm always net long so I don't mind being wrong in this case.  But now we must redeem ourselves for Friday so let's get right to it.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow rejected Wednesday's spinning top in a big way zooming up another 180 points to regain the 18K mark and clear resistance at 18,040.  That also drove the indicators overbought for the first time in three weeks but I can't really see any technical bearish signs here.

The VIX:  And the VIX also rejected its own spinning top Thursday to gap down a big 9%.  It was a hammer but also a strong bearish stochastic crossover.  With declining indicators, my vote is for continued lower here.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed  at 12:29 AM EDT with ES down 0.11% but YM up 0.01%.  ES had a great day Thursday popping right past resistance at 2111 and closing in on its upper BB at 2134.  That was enough to send the indicators overbought though the stochastic hasn't yet begun to curve around for a bearish crossover.  The overnight is sagging a bit but it was last night at this point too and we know how that ended.  So I can't really call this one lower on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  again from 2097.17 to 2113.67.  And despite that jump, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I called the dollar lower again Thursday and I was right about that as it gapped down all the way to its lower BB before ending with a small green marubozu and a 0.26% loss.  But this is a decent reversal sign now so I'd guess we go higher Friday.

Euro:  And I was right about the euro too last night when I wrote that "more upside is possible Thursday" as it closed back to 1.1383 and nearly touched its upper BB on an inverted hammer.   But the overnight seems to be continuing higher and with indicators not yet overbought I can't just yet call the euro lower.

Transportation:  Well at least I was right when last night I wrote that "there's a chance this one could reverse Thursday.".  It was a great chance, with the trans up 1.54% on a bi green marubozu that popped them right out of their descending RTC for a bullish setup and a bullish stochastic crossover.  This all looks positive but for the fact that we ended right on resistance at 8448.  Do the trans have the requisite moxie to push higher?  I think they might.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       5      3       3           3       0.727    283

     And the winner is...

With a three-day winning streak going, I don't really see any bearish signs on the charts tonight, other than a toppy looking ES.  Some indicators have gone overbought but not by much.  The SPX Hi/Lo index continues to rise and the VIX looks like it still has some room to run lower.  We also seem to have put in a double bottom, which is a bullish sign.  My real concern it that it's op-ex Friday and so anything can happen but what the heck, I'll just call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

I'll admit I missed this one.  VZ rose on Thursday, along with the rest of the Dow.  But it finished right at resistance so I just still can't get on board.  I'm afraid the majority of this swing as already gone.  It just isn't the sort of entry point I look for.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2097.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Huh - well there were some nice day trading opportunities around the Fed announcement at 2 PM Wednesday but by the time it was all over the market was little changed, the Dow gaining a mere 31 points.So with that excitement finally out of the way we move on to Thursday

The technicals

The Dow:  In the end, Mr. Market couldn't figure out what to make of the Fed announcement, ending with a symmetrical spinning top above Tuesday's jump.  But we also got a new bullish stochastic crossover so this chart remains conflicted.

The VIX:  True to form, the VIX bounced off its upper BB and fell back under its 200 day MA on Tuesday to set up another loss on Wednesday.  But this is also a spinning top  so no call here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:18 AM EDT with ES down 0.20%.  On Wednesday ES put in a long legged doji star with about Tuesday's close.  The overnight seems to be confirming that with a move lower so this chart is looking bearish now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2088.75 to 2097.17.  And that combined with ES sagging in the overnight now puts it back below its new pivot so this indicator goes back to bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar continued its month-long slide Wednesday closing in on its lower BB with indicators now oversold.  But there's still no reversal sign here yet.

Euro:  Looks like the euro may finally be breaking out of its sideways trading range with a pop back to 1.1347 Wednesday, its highest close since May 15th.  And with a bullish stochastic from a high level and the overnight guiding higher, I'd say more upside is possible Thursday.

Transportation:  The trans made it four losers in a row Wednesday but this one was a hammer that touched it slower BB respecting support at 8297 so there's a chance this one could reverse Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       5      2       3           3       0.800    463

     And the winner is...

We have a bunch of reversal signs about tonight after the post-Fed rally fizzled and the broader month-long trend remains down so I'm going to call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I take back what I said about VZ being a swing buy.  With a red hanging man Wednesday, fuggedaboudit.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2081.67.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ may be a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night the Dow had given us a reversal warning in the form of a hammer but that wasn't too convincing to me.   Too bad too because the Dow gained triple digits Tuesday, apparently on pre-Fed second guessing.  Well I won't be fooled twice.  It's my standard policy to never make predictions ahead of Fed days and that goes double for this one as this Wednesday's announcement is more widely anticipated than most.  So we'll just skip the chart run-downs tonight.  No point to them.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot finally rises  from 2081.67 to 2088.75.  ES did well enough Tuesday to rise above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       5      2       2           3       0.800    463

     And the winner is...

I won't be playing the game Wednesday morning, not ahead of a big Fed announcement.  There might be some great scalping opportunities as soon as it comes out for the fleet of finger but I'll leave that to those more adventurous than me.  In the meantime, the call is simply Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday VZ took something of an unexpected pop that helped establish 47 as support.  I think I might stick a limit buy just above that and see what happens.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2081.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night things were looking bleak and I called the close for Monday lower.  And sure enough, the Dow ended with another triple digit loss.  This was particularly concerning since it makes a down Friday followed by a down Monday for the second week in a row.  That's a particularly negative pattern.  So keeping that in mind, is there any relief in sight?  The charts will speak when they get good and ready.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow gave us a 108 point drop for a fat hammer but also a bearish stochastic crossover.  There's support at 17,757 that was successfully tested on Monday but with the 200 day MA at 17,633 hoving into view I'd expect a retest.  This pattern is certainly not bullish.

The VIX: Last night I wrote of the VIX that "more upside is possible Monday."  And it came to pass, with a giant 11.68% gap-up pop that blasted it right through its 200 day MA.  But in the end it was a classic hanging man looking a lot like an evening star in the making.  200 MA hits are the third rail for the VIX and I expect all the bots know it, particularly with a yawning gap now below us..  I'm looking for a move lower on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 1:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.17%.  On Monday ES confirmed Friday's spinning top with a 50% retracement of Thursday's gains on a big gap-down hammer that forced a bearish stochastic crossover.  But it also touched the lower BB.  And six of the last six times that's happened, we got a move higher within two days.  That may not be Tuesday though as the overall larger trend remains down and the overnight is sagging.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2097.50 to 2081.67.  ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "there are no bullish signs on this chart tonight."  And what happens in that case?  We go down.  Another 0.14% Monday.  The indicators are all dead in the water and there are still no bullish signs on this chart.

Euro:  Well of course I did miss the euro on Monday which went higher to 1.1297, not lower as I expected.  But that still leaves it in a narrow congestion zone around 1.277, a level we've hit for eight straight days now.  The current pattern, hammer followed by bullish engulfing suggests higher, but tempered by indicators now overbought.  As far as I can tell the euro has a bit more sideways motion to go before a break.

Transportation:  Like the Dow the trans gave us a red hammer on Monday but not quite a bearish stochastic crossover.  Still, this would be an exceedingly risky point to go long the trans.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       5      1       2           3       0.889    576

     And the winner is...

Well after careful consideration I'm afraid there aren't a whole lot of bullish signs on the charts tonight.  Only the VIX looks bullish on a reversal candle but it could still take one more stab higher before falling back.  So I'm afraid I'll just have to declare Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ just continues to be part of the overall market decline.  It broke support at 47.24 on Monday with a gap-down spinning top so there's just no telling when it might be a buy again.  Short form: stay away.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last Thursday night I wrote that "the market is feeling toppy tonight with a number of reversal candles on the charts.".  And that's all it took, with a broad-based decline on Friday  leaving hte Dow down triple digits.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's inverted hammer with a 141 point dump to send the indicators lower before they ever even hit overbought.  Technically this all looks bearish for Monday.

The VIX:  And Thursday night I wrote that "the VIX may be moving higher within a few days."  And we didn't have to wait long, with the VIX rising 7.24% on Friday with a gap-up candle that popped it out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  That also curved the stochastic into position for a bullish crossover so this one looks like more upside is possible Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down  0.44%.  On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's spinning top with a red marubozu that retraced half of Wednesday's gains.  Of more immediate concern is the Sunday overnight, which gapped down precipitously at the open, forming a bearish stochastic crossover before the indicators even got near overbought - nto a good sign.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2109.08 to 2097.50.   That leaves ES still below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday I wrote that "the dollar is having trouble getting into gear right now." and Friday didn't help it any with another 0.07% loss as we continued a month-long slide.  There are no bullish signs on this chart tonight.

Euro:  After spending a bunch of time last week noodling about 1.1292, the euro was ultimately unable to pass that resistance and closed Friday at 1.1261, but with yet another doji.  That makes four in a row as the euro struggles to find direction.  But with the Sunday overnight off non-trivially it looks like that direction will be lower on Monday.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night the trans gave no hint of a fall on Friday but that's what happened anyway.  The result was almost a dark cloud cover but certainly doesn't look encouraging.  I'd not be long the trans for Monday.
.
Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       4      1       2           3       0.875    468

     And the winner is...

A down Friday followed by a down Monday is a well-known bearish sign and we already saw that a week ago.  Now we have yet another down Friday and the technicals sure don't look very positive tonight.  Also, the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index continues to lag at 0.99.  A reading below 1 can be bullish, but not if it drags on too long.  Then it becomes bearish.  With no real bullish signs to speak of on the charts tonight and the futures unambiguously guiding lower, I have no alternative but to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Well I guess that's the end of this trade.  VZ fell out of bed on Friday, along with the rest of the Dow.  That put a quick end to this rising RTC, erasing a week's worth of gains.  So we're back to square one, waiting for a likely buy point.