Thursday, June 18, 2015

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday lower.
  • ES pivot 2097.17.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Friday bias uncertain  technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Huh - well there were some nice day trading opportunities around the Fed announcement at 2 PM Wednesday but by the time it was all over the market was little changed, the Dow gaining a mere 31 points.So with that excitement finally out of the way we move on to Thursday

The technicals

The Dow:  In the end, Mr. Market couldn't figure out what to make of the Fed announcement, ending with a symmetrical spinning top above Tuesday's jump.  But we also got a new bullish stochastic crossover so this chart remains conflicted.

The VIX:  True to form, the VIX bounced off its upper BB and fell back under its 200 day MA on Tuesday to set up another loss on Wednesday.  But this is also a spinning top  so no call here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:18 AM EDT with ES down 0.20%.  On Wednesday ES put in a long legged doji star with about Tuesday's close.  The overnight seems to be confirming that with a move lower so this chart is looking bearish now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2088.75 to 2097.17.  And that combined with ES sagging in the overnight now puts it back below its new pivot so this indicator goes back to bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar continued its month-long slide Wednesday closing in on its lower BB with indicators now oversold.  But there's still no reversal sign here yet.

Euro:  Looks like the euro may finally be breaking out of its sideways trading range with a pop back to 1.1347 Wednesday, its highest close since May 15th.  And with a bullish stochastic from a high level and the overnight guiding higher, I'd say more upside is possible Thursday.

Transportation:  The trans made it four losers in a row Wednesday but this one was a hammer that touched it slower BB respecting support at 8297 so there's a chance this one could reverse Thursday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       5      2       3           3       0.800    463

     And the winner is...

We have a bunch of reversal signs about tonight after the post-Fed rally fizzled and the broader month-long trend remains down so I'm going to call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I take back what I said about VZ being a swing buy.  With a red hanging man Wednesday, fuggedaboudit.

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