Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2153.50.  Holding above is bullish..
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Perhaps flipping a coin would be the best way of calling the market these days after all.  I called for a higher close and although the SPX did indeed gain all of 0.46 points, the Dow lost 2.95 points.  With a perfect doji like that, there's just no calling the outcome.  We make one last attempt to get on the scoreboard before the Olympics start Friday night.  As I mentioned earlier, I will be taking two weeks of vacation to devote myself entirely to the Olympics.  Now that the dog days of summer are in full swing, it seems like a good time to take some time off anyway.

The technicals


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:22 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2153.50 to 2159.17.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     0      3       1           0       0.000     -71

     And the winner is...

We came close to being correct last night with a call for a move higher but were perhaps just a day too early.  ES is now in a clear uptrend and oil exited a long descending RTC for a bullish setup on Thursday.  Also on Thursday the trans rose 0.11% outperforming the Dow once again and the VIX confirmed a dark cloud cover Wednesday with a further 3.42% drop.  And the Dow itself by not resuming its two-week decline after a small gain on Wednesday may be ready to pull out of that particular funk.  So the charts generally tonight are looking at least as good as last night.  Now I may be just a glutton for punishment but based on all that I have to call Friday higher.

That's all she wrote for two weeks.  See you again after the Olympics!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2153.50.  Holding above is bullish..
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Well the Dow finally snapped a seven day losing streak - just when I predicted it would go lower again.  But with just a 41 point gain all that was wounded was my pride.  I guess hitting at RSI of zero counts for something after all.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are virtually unchanged at 12:17 AM EDT with ES flat and YM up 0.02%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2155.08 to 2153.50.  But ES has already gone back above its pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     0      2       1           0       0.000     -69

     And the winner is...

So the Dow finally snapped its long losing streak with a bullish piercing pattern, right after I said ti would keep going lower.  And everything else I thought would happen, didn't.  For example, after putting in a big gain on Tuesday, on Wednesday the VIX didn't continue higher, it fell back nearly four percent on a dark cloud cover.  In fact tonight is a complete 180 from last night.  Everything that looked bearish then now looks bullish.  A number of charts have reversed after long trends, including the dollar. the euro, and oil (finally).  The trans are particularly bullish, having bounced off their 200 day MA on Wednesday and handily outperforming the Dow.

So just as last night I couldn't find a reason not to be bearish, tonight I can't find a reason not to be bullish.  I wasn't seeing any overnight upside in ES until just now and that's the confirmation I needed so I'm going to cautiously go ahead and call Thursday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.