Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2165.83.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Well how about that - I finally got one right.  I called the Dow lower last Friday and although it attempted to rally after a dump right out the gate, it wasn't enough and we ended the day down 24.  So that wraps up July, and although I didn't do so hot in market calls, with my first losing month in over a year, my trading account still managed a decent 2.01% gain so I can't really complain.

I will briefly mention that I'm planning to take a vacation for two weeks starting next week, thanks to the upcoming Olympics.  This happens only once every two year so I think I'm entitled.  I don't mind admitting I'm an Olympaholic, and while my favorites are volleyball and gymnastics I'll happily watch just about anything they serve up.  I understand it doesn't make much sense, but there it is.  So the stock market will somehow have to muddle along without me starting next Monday.  Such is life.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:21 AM EDT with ES up 0.53%.  ES tonight appears to be attempting a serious breakout above nearly two week-long resistance around 2168 as OBV has been rising steadily for four days now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2162.25 to 2165.83.  That puts ES well above its new pivot so this indicator is now clearly bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304

     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is generally higher and although that's not historically true of August, it's looking like it might actually be the case this year.  I usually like to give more weight to the futures on Sunday nights since they represent more recent data than charts form last Friday and tonight they're all guiding higher in a non-trivial way.  Also, we see oil putting in a bullish hammer possibly signaling a move higher Monday.  Add in a Dow that has finally gone oversold, SPX putting in a bullish stochastic crossover, and the VIX putting in a giant red marubozu for a bearish stochastic crossover.  That looks to me like all the stars are aligning tonight in a way I haven't seen in a while so I'm going to go ahead and just call Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.