Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2165.83.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Well I sure didn't figure that.  Last night it really looked like we were going higher on Monday, including oil.  But the oil tanked and that took with it the enrgey sector including Dow component CVX which ended down just over 3 and a quarter percent and that's all it took to send the Dow lower by 28 points.  And so the Dow continues its recent shallow slide with five reversal candles in a row, none of which have panned out.  With a six in a row losing streak hoing, will the Dow ever move higher again?  We consult the charts, for what little good they seem to be lately.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:35 AM EDT with ES up 0.16%. Last night's breakout was a total flop leaving us right back in the middle of a two week congestion zone.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot bumps up from 2165.83 to 2167.33.  With a bounce off its new pivot right at midnight, ES remains above that level and so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304

August     0      1       0           0       0.000     -28

     And the winner is...

Monday was really a mystery to me.  Last night everything sure looked like we were posied to go higher, but we didn't.  This sort of bearish dsivergence gives one pause.  I don't recall another instance where things have gone so badly wrong technically in one day.  For instnace, after a giant bearish engulfing candle on Friday plus a bearish stochasti crossover, the VIX rose nearly 5% on Monday.  This is the sort of thing that makes me think that things may not be quite so good as they appear to be and is a reason I switched my vote in teh Ticker Sens epoll from bullish to bearish this week.

In any case, what was looking like an ES breakout above its two week resistance turned out to be more of a fake-out.leaving us exactly at a level we've visited eight days running now.  I might as well jsut admit I have no way of calling the current market.  Until we see some real action here, I think ES will continue to jiggle sideways while the Dow continues its apparently oil induced drift lower.  Accordingly I'll just have to call Tuesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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