Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2098.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It was a tough day Thursday to be calling the close as the Dow finished all of seven points lower after some peculiar gyrations, perhaps linked to op-ex.  And speaking of, it's my policy to always call op-ex Fridays as uncertain, plus I'm just disgusted with always being wrong lately so we're just going to skip the charts tonight and cut straight to the chase.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises just a tad from 2097.50 to 2098.17. That leaves ES sitting right on the new pivot so this indicator is neutral.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      1      5       2           0       0.167   -204

     And the winner is...

On op-ex Friday?  Who knows.  I simply declare Friday uncertain.  For what it's worth, the charts seem a bit negative tonight but that's not been working out so well this week.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ was unable to hold onto Wednesday's gains as it ended with a long-legged doji.  This sort of action is great for day traders but not so much for swing trading so we continue to stay away.  I need to see some extreme readings one way or the other before I'll commit.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher....
• ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Firday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Oh great.  Sometimes I get on these wrong-streaks and this is one of them.  I called Wednesday lower so of course it went higher.  Perhaps I did not give enough credence to the futures and the VIX.  Well we won't make that mistake again, at least not soon.  So let's see what lessons we an apply here for Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow completely ignored a bearish harami and overbought indicators to gain another 76 points.  That keeps the rising RTC intact and to heck with the indicators which are now all broken at overbought.  The next key point is the upper BB at 18,215 and I expect to touch that on Thursday.

The VIX:  At least I was right last night when I wrote "I'd not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday."  That dark cloud cover yielded a 6% drop on Wednesday.  With two black crows cawing away now we see the lower BB and support both at 12.37 next up and I expect to hit them on Thursday - could be a bottoming day.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: 10 AM EDT with ES up  0.10%  ES had a nice day on Wednesday climbing back to resistance around 2100.  Indicators are all way overbought but broken at these levels.  There's new resistance at 2107 and then the upper BB at 2111 but after being so overbought for a week now, does ES have to mojo to reach that?  The overnight pin action seems to suggest it might.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2086.50 to 2097.50. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Well I was right about this one too last night when I wrote "I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday".  And down we went, off another 0.42%.  That's two black crows,  a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  And that all spells lower again in my book.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continued its bounce Monday off its lower BB with another gain Wednesday.  It was a hanging man but the new overnight seems to be dis-confirming that and with indicators still only just barely off oversold, there seems to be plenty of room to run as the Parityville Express suddenly moves into reverse.

Transportation: Whoa - the trans have been positively psychopathic the past few days.  On Tuesday we got a giant hammer and on Wednesday we got an equally large inverted hammer.  After a two day swing between 8586 and 8784, we finished nearly unchanged.  What we did get was a bearish RTC trigger, overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover.  Hey, I can't be wrong forever and technically this spells lower to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 arch       7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      4       2           0       0.200   -197

     And the winner is...

I've been finding this choppy action lately tough to deal with but I guess we'll take another stab at it.  With a more or less general uptrend in place and in the absence of any  topping candles or negativity from the futures, I guess I'll just go ahead and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

With its stochastic having suddenly threaded out halfway between overbought and oversold, VZ is no longer oscillating nicely the way it had been all the way back to last December.  This is definitely not my ideal swing trade setup, though that doesn't mean VZ couldn't continue to go higher from here.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower....
• ES pivot 2086.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well now that I can finally see again, what I see is that not much happened while I was gone.  We've had a three-day run of up/down/up with the Dow ending just under where it was Friday afternoon.  So let's just pick up where we left off and move on to Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in some modest gains but this makes the third day of lower highs while the indicators continue overbought as we inch closer to the right edge of the current rising RTC.  The Dow's looking kinda tired right now is all I can say.

The VIX:  A more decisive note came from the VIX though on Tuesday with a strong dark cloud cover good for a 1.94% decline.  The indicators are only just off oversold but the candlestick case looks more compelling here and I'd not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  Despite ES's green hammer on Tuesday the overbought indicators and bearish stochastic crossover make this chart look bearish for Wednesday.  The lack of any positive movement in the overnight supports this theory.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2091.00 to 2086.50.  That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar looked to be setting up a bearish evening star.  Well it took one extra day but the payoff came Tuesday with a big 0.83% fall to drop right out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover.  That';s enough for me - I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday.

Euro:  And you can just mirror-image all of the above for the euro.  Looks higher on Wednesday after bouncing off its lower BB.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trannies put in a very tall hammer for a small 0.10% loss on a successful test of the 200 day MA.  But this was also arising RTC exit for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover.  So we have conflicting indicators here but overall I'm going to guess there's more downside to come.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
arch       7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      3       2           0       0.250   -121

     And the winner is...

The overall impression tonight is bearish so I'm just going to have to call Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to be haunted by indecision with Tuesday's doji star the latest example.  Propped up only by its 200 day MA, I still can't get on board this bus.  These trades are only for when all the stars align, and so far they're not.

Tuesday

Well I really hate to cancel again but the Night Owl had her annual optometrist oppointment today and as a result right now she can't see jack.  It's hard to analyze the charts hwen you can't see them.  My vision should be back to normal by Tuesday but in the meantime, Mr. Market will just have to fend for himself.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2091.58.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a cautious buy.

Recap

On Friday the market had  a second workman-like advance, notable mainly because it finally popped the Dow past its week-long resistance at 17,952 to reclaim the 18K mark again.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last Thursday night I wrote "we just have to go with this choppy uptrend." and good thing too because the Dow gained almost another 100 points on Friday propelled in large part by GE whose nearly 11% gain had the Night Owl doing the happy dance since GE is one of my core holdings.  But that was then this is now.  So we go back to the well to see what sort of charts we can winch up for Monday.

The VIX:  Well I missed this one.  I'm not sure now why I thought the VIX might go higher last Friday but it did go lower instead, finishing right on its lower BB with the indicators all highly oversold and breaking support at 13 in the process.  So while it looks ready to reverse indicator-wise, we still don't have a candle  reversal sign so I can't call the VIX higher just yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:17 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  On Friday ES extended its gains to make it three in a row.  Indicators are now pretty overbought and the overnight is sagging a bit but we remain solidly in a tight rising RTC and with the upper BB nearby at 2106.13, I expect ES to touch that level on Monday.  That is coincidentally also a resistance line, so we could get a topping day.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2080.00 to 2091.58 With a flat ES in the overnight that leaves us above the new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar gapped up again Friday 0.20% but on a red candle.  Indicators are close to oversold so we have a hint of a reversal here but not a strong one.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro is back in a steep descending RTC, down again to 1.0613 as the Parityville Express seems to be back on track once again.  And the Sunday overnight is also lower.  The lower BB is at 1.0593 and I expect the euro to hit that on Monday.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night I wrote "there's still a lot of room to run higher here" and that's just what the trans did, up another 0.68% to make it four in a row.  Indicators continue to rise but are not yet overbought and we have a steep rising RTC going.  Next resistance is at 8791 but I expect the trans to test that level on Monday.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      2       3           0       0.333    -40

     And the winner is...

It kind of makes me nervous to say this but I'm not actually seeing any technical signs of a move lower in the charts tonight.  Sure ES is down a bit but we've seen that sort of action reverse the next day recently.  We're near enough to some key resistance lines though that a reversal might be in the offing soon but for now I guess all I can really to is call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Friday VZ retested its 200 day MA and this time it succeeded with a stubby candle that confirmed Friday's bullish harami.  With a stochastic beginning to curve around for a bullish crossover, I'd give this a cautious green light for a swing buy now.