Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday lower....
  • ES pivot 2086.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ a swing trade buy.

Well now that I can finally see again, what I see is that not much happened while I was gone.  We've had a three-day run of up/down/up with the Dow ending just under where it was Friday afternoon.  So let's just pick up where we left off and move on to Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in some modest gains but this makes the third day of lower highs while the indicators continue overbought as we inch closer to the right edge of the current rising RTC.  The Dow's looking kinda tired right now is all I can say.

The VIX:  A more decisive note came from the VIX though on Tuesday with a strong dark cloud cover good for a 1.94% decline.  The indicators are only just off oversold but the candlestick case looks more compelling here and I'd not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  Despite ES's green hammer on Tuesday the overbought indicators and bearish stochastic crossover make this chart look bearish for Wednesday.  The lack of any positive movement in the overnight supports this theory.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2091.00 to 2086.50.  That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar looked to be setting up a bearish evening star.  Well it took one extra day but the payoff came Tuesday with a big 0.83% fall to drop right out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover.  That';s enough for me - I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday.

Euro:  And you can just mirror-image all of the above for the euro.  Looks higher on Wednesday after bouncing off its lower BB.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trannies put in a very tall hammer for a small 0.10% loss on a successful test of the 200 day MA.  But this was also arising RTC exit for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover.  So we have conflicting indicators here but overall I'm going to guess there's more downside to come.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

arch       7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      3       2           0       0.250   -121

     And the winner is...

The overall impression tonight is bearish so I'm just going to have to call Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to be haunted by indecision with Tuesday's doji star the latest example.  Propped up only by its 200 day MA, I still can't get on board this bus.  These trades are only for when all the stars align, and so far they're not.

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