Friday, May 8, 2015

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2076.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ near a swing trade buy.
Recap

Things were looking a bit murky last night but my conditional call worked as ES broke above its pivot right at 10:40 AM and never looked back - and the market closed higher.  Made for an interesting candle too so let's wrap up the week and move on to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow retraced most of Wednesday's losses with a fat green spinning top that successfully tested it slower BB for the second day in a row and left us with a bullish harami.  The indicators are still all over the place so we'll go with the candles which are bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I figured the VIX could advance one more day especially since its 200 day MA has not proven to be much of a barrier lately.  Except for this time when an extended foray above ultimately proved fruitless and the VIX closed down 0.13% just below the MA.  That leaves the indicators overbought and with a red spinning top makes it look like the next move is likely lower.  Note too that we've now touched the upper BB two days running and that's always a bearish sign.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:33 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%.  On Thursday ES put in a tall green hammer following Wednesday's red hammer.  The double hammer is always a good reversal sign particularly when we just got a new bullish stochastic crossover.  And with confirmation from the overnight, I'd say this one goes higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2076.42 to 2076.50. That leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicators is now bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I didn't want to commit to a move higher on Thursday  and that was a shame because the dollar gained 0.61% as the indicators just came off oversold.  That makes this chart now look bullish for Friday.

Euro:  Foo - I didn't see this one coming.  On Thursday the euro ailed to capitalize on Wednesday's gains, dropping back to 1.1274, a 50% retracement.  That's a bearish harami, the indicators continue moving lower being still jsut barely overbought, and the new overnight is guiding lower.  That all adds up to lower on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I noted that "re's more upside potential than downside risk".  And that potential played out on Thursday with a big 1.13% move to the upside stopping right on the trans' 200 day MA and confirming Wednesday's morning star doji.  With indicators only just off oversold this chart looks continued bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        2      1       0           2       0.800    144

     And the winner is...

On Thursday we got some confirmation of some of the reversal signs I was seeing Wednesday night so I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ seems to have found some support on Thursday with a little green spinning top that left the indicators oversold.  This is a warning of a reversal higher but one which requires confirmation.  The adventurous might want to go long here but not me, not just yet.

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2076.42.  Waiting for a break to determine direction..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.
Recap

My mom once told me that if you don't have anything nice to say about someone, don't say anything at all.  That's something Auntie Janet should have remembered when she bad-mouthed Mr. Market Wednesday morning which sent him into a triple point snit.  A late afternoon rally helped to assuage his feelings only a little and the Dow still finished off 86, taking my call for a higher close with it.  Oh that and some crummy ADP numbers.  This was one of those days when the news trumped the technicals.  Not much I can do about that.  Let's finish off the week now and figure out Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow had its one minute of glory right out the gate and then that was that - though it did manage to avoid ending at session lows.  So technically this is quite bearish with a clear break under week-long congestion.  Indicators are now off overbought but not yet to oversold so it's too soon to call a reversal higher.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "there seems to be enough gas in the tank for another leg higher on Tuesday".  And whadaya know, that's just what happened with the VIX up 5.87% on Wednesday.  Interestingly though, it tried punching through its 200 day MA but fell back to close right on it.  More often than not tough these failed breakout attempts end up succeeding the next day so I'd not be surprised to see the VIX go one more day higher, especially since the indicators are still not overbought.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:15 AM EDT with ES up 0.07%.  On Wednesday ES put in a hammer that pierced its lower BB and left the indicators just short of oversold.  This is a fair reversal indicator and ES seems to be finding some support in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2092.42 to 2076.42.  That now leaves ES sitting right on its new pivot for the second time in the past week so this indicator is mum tonight.

Dollar index:  The dollar had its biggest gap down on Wednesday since April 15th confirming Tuesday's bearish engulfing pattern.  And I said as much last night, though I wasn't expecting this big a decline.  We've now touched the lower BB but with it falling away it's not clear a bounce off it is imminent.

Euro:  I was wrong last night in thinking the euro would continue consolidating.  It shot up to 1.1357 on Wednesday and despite overbought indicators the trend seems to have resumed higher.

Transportation:  The trans found support around 8600 on Wednesday and ended with a slight gain on a doji star that with oversold indicators is a decent reversal sign.  I'd say there's more upside potential than downside risk at the moment.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        2      1       0           1       0.667    144

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing a variety of reversal signs but they require confirmation.  The fact that ES is sitting on its new pivot supports the lack of directions here so I'm going to do another conditional call: if ES breaks above its new pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we close higher.  But if it breaks to the downside and stays there, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

At least I was right when last night I wrote of VZ "
I expect more selling" and that' just what we got on Wednesday with another nice 79 cent drop.  That was the payoff on the bearish engulfing pattern.  The indicators continue to fall and we're still not at buyable levels but we're (finally) getting closer.  The 200 day MA is at 48.99 (call it 49) so I wouldn't feel bad at putting in a buy limit there.

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2092.42.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.
Recap

After nearly touching its upper BB on Monday the Dow was looking toppy to me but not enough for me to mention it.  Too bad too because it took a tumble Tuesday to 17,928.   Ad my conditional call worked.  ES fell below its pivot just before the open and never recovered.  So we continue the choppy trendless action we've seen for a whole month now.  That makes things tough but we keep at it and look ahead to Wednesday, as always.  A big part of staying in the game is staying in the game.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wasn't quite sure what to make of the Dow and it's a shame because we got a triple point dump on Tuesday that confirmed Monday's inverted hammer and sent all the indcators lwoer.  This chart now just looks plain bearish.

The VIX:  And I was sure wrong about the VIX which instead of moving lower jumped a big 11.36% on Tuesday to send RSI nearly overbought.  But the stochastic still hasnt' formed a bullish crossover.  Still, there seems to be enough gas in the tank for another leg higher on Tuesday,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:32 AM EDT with ES up  0.31%.  ES had another nasty fall on Tuesday retracing almost all of the past two days' gains.  The indicators remain confused halfway between overbought and oversold but I'll note that big ES dumps lately have been followed by moves higher.  And the new overnight seems to be supporting that theory.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2107.42 to 2092.42.  That leaves ES just barely below its new pivot so unless it can manage to break above, this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  I got faked out by the dollar on Tuesday as it dropped 0.46% with a big bearish engulfing pattern.  That leaves the indicators still oversold.  So candlestick-wise, it looks lower but maybe not by much.

Euro:  And after looking ready to resume its march lower, the euro on Tuesday popped right back to where it began on Monday.  With further upside in the overnight, it looks like we may now be in a new consolidation zone around 1.1203.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans completed their evening star to fall right back through their 200 day MA ending nearly where they began last Friday,  Burt the indicators remain oversold and the stochastic continues its bullish crossover,  Given that we're sitting on some strong support here I'd venture to guess the trans go higher on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        2      0       0           1       1.000    230

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts don't look particularly bullish.  In fact technically they look sort of bearish.  But I'll note that eight of the last nine times we've had big down days in the market the next day closed higher.  And the futures right now seem to be supporting that idea.  And I always hate to contradict the futures.  I figure there's someone out there with more money than me who knows more than I do.  So I'm going with the long shot and calling Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

After spending an entire week congesting around the 50.50 mark, VZ finally broke lower on Tuesday with a tall red marubozu.  Indicators are still just overbought though but they're finally on the move lower.  I expect more selling though so we're still not at a swing entry point.  Patience is the key.

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2107.42.  No prediction..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Last night I opined that "Monday could be a doji day.".  That certainly seems to have been the case as the Dow rose 46 points on an inverted hammer.  It's an interesting pattern so let's take a closer look, chartwise.

The technicals

The Dow:  OK, so the inverted hammer is one thing but we also got a completed bullish stochastic crossover around levels from which the market has then proceeded higher.  But we did nearly touch the upper BB, so I'm going to say that's a wash and we're just waiting to see which side of the fence this one's coming down on.

The VIX:  The VIX had one of those odd days where it gained 1.18% Monday but on a red candle.  Last night I thought we'd move lower but Monday's candle still makes me think that, especially now that we've got a bearish stochastic crossover going.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:37 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  ES had a decent day on Monday, pushing right up to its record resistance before falling back a bit.  But that leaves the indicators in disarray, with money flow and the stochastic rising but RSI and momentum falling.  That makes this chart too tough for me tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2094.83  to 2107.42.  That leaves us in the rare position of ES sitting right on top of its new pivot therefore this indicator is mum tonight, neither bullish nor bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote of the dollar, "there's plenty of room to run higher here."   And so it did, up another 0.20% Monday to trade outside its descending RTC for a bullish trigger.  It's a small hanging man but with indicators still oversold I'd say more upside isn't out of the question here.

Euro: And the euro similarly fell on Monday, down to 1.1145 just outside its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  With a completed bearish stochastic crossover, indicators still overbought but now falling and an overnight move lower, I'd say the euro's closing lower on Tuesday.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans put in a giant gap-up evening star but also completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  Eh?  Ya got me there, pal.  I don't know what that's all about.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        2      0       0           0       1.000    230

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing some conflicting signs in the charts and that's reflected in ES which is sitting right on its new pivot.  So that sounds like a perfect chance to make a conditional call: if ES breaks above its pivot and remains there by mid-morning Tuesday, we close higher.  If it falls off below the pivot, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ stubbornly refuses to fall but still only managed a meager 11 cent gain on Monday with yet another reversal warning candle.  So basically nothing's changed and we just continue to wait for a suitable entry point.

Monday, May 4, 2015

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher.
  • ES pivot 2094.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.
Recap

After two days of ugly losses to end April it was gratifying to see my call for a higher start for May last Friday come true.  Of course May is always tricky but we have some tricks of our own up our sleeves so let's check those charts and figure out which way Monday's headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow gave us a big inside harami and a stochastic that's curving around for a bullish crossover and sent all the indicators higher.  It requires confirmation but this might be a sign of a move higher.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I noted that this VIX touching its upper BB was "a reversal sign worth watching.".  And indeed it was as the VIX dropped a big 12.71% on Friday.  The double touch of the 200 day MA and the upper BB is always a good sign of a move lower..  But even that didn't form a bearish stochastic crossover and the indicators are still a long way from oversold so there's still room to run lower here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:54 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%.  ES did well on Friday with a bullish one white soldier that was enough to set up a bullish stochastic crossover too, thought that is now in jeopardy from the slight overnight sag we're getting.  So this chart is only weakly bullish at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2083.75 to 2094.83. That now puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I wrote "I'd have to hazard that the next move is higher.".  Good guess too because on Friday the dollar snapped a six day losing streak to pop out of its steep descending RTC.  We remain quite oversold so there's plenty of room to run higher here.

Euro:  And last Thursday night I also wrote of the euro, "This one looks ripe for a fall any day now".  Ad the very next day the euro fell back to 1.1198 on a bearish inverted hammer harami to break a seven day winning streak.  It's still in a rising RTC, just barely, but indicators have now peaked at overbought and the overnight is guiding lower so I'd say it looks good for a lower close Monday.

Transportation:  The trans had a great day Friday up 1.68% on a backwards bullish piercing pattern that punched through their 200 day MA, sent the indicators higher after hitting oversold and curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover.  That all makes this chart look bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        1      0       0           0       1.000    184

     And the winner is...

The overall tenor of the charts is mildly bullish so I guess I'm just going to have to call Monday higher, but more in the absence of any clear bearish signs than the presence of bullish ones.  Monday could be a doji day.

Single Stock Trader

After two matching stars VZ finally put in a clear bearish signal on Friday with a tall hanging man and a stochastic moving lower.  This one looks ready to fall again Monday.