Friday, May 8, 2015

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2076.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ near a swing trade buy.

Things were looking a bit murky last night but my conditional call worked as ES broke above its pivot right at 10:40 AM and never looked back - and the market closed higher.  Made for an interesting candle too so let's wrap up the week and move on to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow retraced most of Wednesday's losses with a fat green spinning top that successfully tested it slower BB for the second day in a row and left us with a bullish harami.  The indicators are still all over the place so we'll go with the candles which are bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I figured the VIX could advance one more day especially since its 200 day MA has not proven to be much of a barrier lately.  Except for this time when an extended foray above ultimately proved fruitless and the VIX closed down 0.13% just below the MA.  That leaves the indicators overbought and with a red spinning top makes it look like the next move is likely lower.  Note too that we've now touched the upper BB two days running and that's always a bearish sign.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:33 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%.  On Thursday ES put in a tall green hammer following Wednesday's red hammer.  The double hammer is always a good reversal sign particularly when we just got a new bullish stochastic crossover.  And with confirmation from the overnight, I'd say this one goes higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2076.42 to 2076.50. That leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicators is now bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I didn't want to commit to a move higher on Thursday  and that was a shame because the dollar gained 0.61% as the indicators just came off oversold.  That makes this chart now look bullish for Friday.

Euro:  Foo - I didn't see this one coming.  On Thursday the euro ailed to capitalize on Wednesday's gains, dropping back to 1.1274, a 50% retracement.  That's a bearish harami, the indicators continue moving lower being still jsut barely overbought, and the new overnight is guiding lower.  That all adds up to lower on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I noted that "re's more upside potential than downside risk".  And that potential played out on Thursday with a big 1.13% move to the upside stopping right on the trans' 200 day MA and confirming Wednesday's morning star doji.  With indicators only just off oversold this chart looks continued bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        2      1       0           2       0.800    144

     And the winner is...

On Thursday we got some confirmation of some of the reversal signs I was seeing Wednesday night so I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ seems to have found some support on Thursday with a little green spinning top that left the indicators oversold.  This is a warning of a reversal higher but one which requires confirmation.  The adventurous might want to go long here but not me, not just yet.

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