Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1906.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

It was nice to see the market do what I expected it to as the Dow put in an 80 point advance on Thursday.  It was also nice to see a relatively quiet day for a change.  So let's move on to Friday as we close out the first week of the depressing month of February.  Let me also reiterate that the January barometer was a total flop and I a expecting the year to finish more or less flat.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow put in a fat green spinning top sitting above Wednesday's action.  That left the indicators confused, with half moving lower and half higher.  The stochastic even came very close to giving us a bullish crossover from a high level.  In any event, there are no bearish signs on this chart tonight.

The VIX:  And on Thursday the VIX had an odd day, actually finishing up 0.88% on a day the market was up too but on a red spinning top that stalled the indcators' advance off of oversold and now presents us with a possible reversal lower on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:10 AM EST with ES down 0.20%. After a nice hammer on Wednesday, on Thursday ES put in a perfect doji star.  But indicators are now just short of overbought and a small gain in the new overnight is enough to complete a new bullish stochastic crossover so we actually don't look in too bad a shape tonight here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1895.25 to 1906.75.  That now leaves ES back below its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bearish again.

Dollar ($USPUPX) daily

Dollar index:   The dollar continued to surprise (me anyway) on Thursday.  After a giant decline on Wednesday, it followed that up with an equally impressive gap-down doji star that skipped right past the 200 day MA for a 0.84% loss.  The dollar is just falling off a cliff here guys.  But now with  indicators back to oversold and 2/3 of a morning star in place hey, this just has to be a reversal, right?  Right?  Check it out - this is something you definitely don't see every day.  (Click on the chart to enlarge).

Euro:  And of course the euro fooled me too on Thursday as it followed up Wednesday's big pop not with an expected decline but with an almost equally big further advance all the way to 1.2222 leaving its 200 day MA in the dust.  Indicators are now fairly overbought and the stochastic is beginning to curve around for a bearish crossover, and we're seeing a bit of a decline in the new overnight but criminey, this juggernaut seems unstoppable right now.

Transportation:  The trans went completely bonkers on Thursday, putting in a giant 3.17% rocket ship green marubozu that vastly outperformed that Dow confirming Wednesday's hammer in a big way, busted past YTD resistance, and formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level, a move often good for another day or two of higher prices.  Dow Theorists, take note.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   2      1       1           0       0.667     193


     And the winner is...

I see a lot of reversal signs, spinning tops, dojis, etc. on the charts to night but they all require confirmation.  The overnight futures are moving lower but that's hardly conclusive.  Given the recent market churn, I think the prudent course here is to simply call Friday uncertain.  It's a real head-scratcher, I'll tall ya.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 1905.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Well that was interesting.  Last night I called the Dow lower for Wednesday and was pleased to see it down triple digits when I woke up this morning.  But then I watched in dismay as the Dow got back up off the floor and spent the rest of the day rallying before finishing with a 183 point gain, largely oil-driven as far as I can tell.  So that one is clearly a miss.  No matter, we merely dust off and move on to Thursday as we see what the charts have in store.

[Hey Google!  Fix your $%&# spell checker!  I know how to spell but my typing's not so hot.]

Hurt Feelings Dept.

And also the Quote of the Day:

"I also hear that you are not comfortable having me own a Tesla car and have cancelled my order for a Tesla Model X," Alsop said. 

Oy, I'm loaded - I don' gotta sell him no steekin' car!

It seems, according to CNBC, that one  Stewart Alsop, VC, had ordered a Tesla model X electro-car but criticized Tesla CEO Elon Musk for his amateurish presentation of the zap-mobile at its coming-out party.  Turns out Musk's feelings were hurt ... so he canceled Alsop's order.  Highly offended.  Won't sell him one.  No way.

Boo hoo hoo.  Oh the humanity!  (Watch this).  Hey, Elon!  I think your car is ridiculous and overpriced..  It's God's way of telling you you have too much money.  It's ugly too.  I also think you're a doofus and have a funny name.  So there, nyah!  Go ahead, ban me from ever buying a model X, Y, or Z, you big baby.  See if I care.  Looking forward to hearing from you.  XOX, love ya, the Night Owl.

I'll be sure to report what I hear back from my good friend buddy pal Elon.  Sheesh.  Memo to Stewie - go buy a real car, like a 'vette.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow put in a strong green hammer that sent most of the indicators moving higher though only recently off overbought.  The lone exception is the stochastic which continues in bearish crossover mode.  That all leaves this chart too confused for me.

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX put in a giant gravestone doji, but all apparently due to a single one-minute candle at exactly 10:30 AM that spiked to 27.70 and came right back down.  It looks like a bad tick to me but eSignal is still reporting it.  Still I'm taking this with a grain of salt.  If we discount that one bar, we're left with a nondescript inside harami that doesn't amount to much.  And with indicators going nowhere, there's really little direction on this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:20 AM EST with ES up 0.52 %. Like everything else on Wednesday ES put in a big green hammer to go with confused indicators.  But eh new overnight seems to be confirming that candle so there's at least a her of a move higher on Thursday.e

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1905.25 to 2079.67. That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now returns to bullish.

Dollar index: The most dramatic chart of the day was the dollar. It gapped down at the open and then just kept falling, trading entirely below its lower BB for a big loss of 1.61% stopped only by its 200 day MA. That took all the indicators to oversold but the stochastic remains in bearish crossover mode. After a move this big, I'd expect at least a DCB here on Thursday. This all seems way overdone to me.

Euro:  And of course the euro had a big move of its own on Wednesday, blasting right though its upper BB and then its 200 day MA back to 1.1103, a close we haven't seen since last October 21st.  That was enough to send the indicators overbought and I'd expect a bit of retracement after a move this big.

Transportation:  The trans gained a nice 1.04% Wednesday on a pattern much like the Dow, so what I said there applies here too.  We're near the lower edge of a broad rising RTC, so I might guess the next move is higher, but that's just a guess.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   1      1       1           0       0.500     113


     And the winner is...

Tonight most of the charts are playing it pretty close to the vest.  With that we have to fall back on the futures and given that they're guiding higher and confirming Wednesday's hammer in ES, I'm going to give it a go and call Thursday higher.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 1905.25.  Holding below is bearish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Well after a clear topping signal on Monday, the market moved lower on Tuesday as I expected wit hthe Dow down nearly 300 points.  This was another one of those days where Real Life (TM) caught up with me and I didn't have as much time as I'd like to study the market so tonight is another Night Owl Lite night - no detailed charts, just conclusions.  Less for me to write, less for you to read, it's a win-win.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:15 AM EST with ES down 0.33%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1927.92 to 1905.25. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433 February   1      0       1           0       1.000     296


     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts appear to be in full-on bearish mode so with the VIX moving higher and both oil and the futures guiding lower once again I'm just going to call Wednesday lower and leave it at that.  Foo.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 1927.92.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Turns out Monday was about as good a day as any to call "uncertain? because the Dow finished with a scant 17 point loss after a late afternoon rally off of earlier lows.  So with February now under way, let's check the charts for the usual nightly run-through.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote that "we could see a topping day" Monday.  I don't know if this is a short-term top, but the Dow put i a perfect doji star at the top of Friday's action and that is at least a reversal warning.

The VIX:  Monday's VIX action looked a lot like a carbon copy of Friday -  a slight 1% loss on a wide-ranging red candle.  Bottom line: indicators remain oversold, though not extremely so and we remain in a loose descending RTC.  So no reversal in sight here yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: AM EST with ES down %.Last night I posited a pause for the market on Monday and that's just what we got with ES putting in a doji star right at the top of Friday's candle.  The new overnight though is trading non-trivially lower  and that is dragging the indicators down off of overbought.  The stochastic is also close to a bearish crossover so the net impression here is negative.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1913.17 to 1927.92. Tht still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish tonight.

Dollar index:   Last night I was skeptical of the dollar's ability to climb and higher on Monday and that was a good thing since after touching its upper BB it reversed course to lose 0.63%  Indicators continue to wander aimlessly about and we're right in the middle of the YTD trading range so I'm not calling this one tonight.

Euro:  And of course as the dollar fell the euro rose on Monday retracing over half of Friday's losses to close back up to 1.0904.  That leaves the indicators rising but the stochastic falling and both in the middle of their recent ranges so one again there's no call here tonight.

Transportation:  And finally in a bit of bullish divergence, on Monday the trans managed an impressive 0.90% gain on a day the Dow was down.  And that still leaves the indicators short of overbought though we're now quite near resistance at 7014.  There seems to be a bit more upside available here and in any case there's clearly nothing bearish about this chart tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   0      0       1           0       undef       0


     And the winner is...

The charts are a bit mixed tonight with a few vague reversal signs.  The clearest picture comes from the Dow and ES, both of which are looking toppy right now.  In fact the indicators for ES have already begun moving lower and ES itself is non-trivially lower as I write this.  So I'm going to go out on a limb here and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Monday stock market froecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1913.17.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

You will note that last Thursday night I wrote "The possibility exists that we could be breaking out of a week-long trading range soon."  And yowsa, last Friday the Dow had its best day since last August, blasting out of that range like a rocketship.  So with that out of the way, where is Monday headed?  We go right back to the charts as usual  to search for clues.

[The stupid Blogspot spell checker is still on the fritz so I apologize in advance for any typoes I missed].

The technicals

The Dow: On Friday the Dow put in a jolly green giant marubozu to pop nearly 400 points on high volume.  That blasted it right through the upper boundary of its recent trading range at 16,168 to close at 16,466.  And that sent all the indicators overbought though not excessively so, and the stochastic has yet to start curving around for a bearish crosover.  So there's nothing bearish about this chart tonight.

The VIX:  And on Friday the VIX correspondingly fell out of its own trading range to drop nearly 10% on a giant inverted hammer that sent its indicators oversold and left the stochastic lying flat on the floor.  With no real support until othe lower BB and the 200 day MA, both around 18.11, I see nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EST with ES down 0.13%. ES had a monster day last Friday that just like the Dow took it out of a week-long range-bound morass and kept its indicators rising all the way to overbought.  The new Sunday overnight seems to be giving a bit of that back, but after such a big move, that's not entirely unexpected.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1883.00 to 1913.17. That leaves ES far enough above its new pivot to call this indicator bullish tonight.

Dollar index:   Like everything else, the dollar had its own dramatic move on Friday, jumping 1.13% on a tall green marubozu that was stopped only by its upper BB.  nd even that wasn't enough to send the indicators overbought.  In fact the stochastic completed a bullish crossover.  However, that leaves the dollar ($USDUPX) now at some big resistance around 66.66, so I'm a bit hesitant to call it higher again on Monday.

Euro:  And on Friday the euro fell out of its week-long rising RTC to drop right back down to 1.0839 on  tall red marubozu.  That left the indicators halfway between oversold and overbought though we now have a fresh bearish stochastic crossover.  However, the Sunday overnight seems to be rallying a bit so I'm nto calling this chart tonight.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans put in a big marubozu of their own, with a 3% pop that topped the Dow's 2% gain.  Volume was up here too and indicators are still not yet overbought so there's nothing bearish here either.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433


     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is bullish and February is no exception.  But it is also often the case that the market takes a break after a big one-day run, particularly one that takes the indicators to overbought.  And with the futures guiding lower, that's what I'm expecting tonight.  However, in the absence of any outright bearish signs from the charts I can't come right out and make a bearish technical call.  We could see a topping day.  In any case, I'm afraid the best I've got tonight is Monday uncertain

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.