Thursday, February 4, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 1905.25.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Well that was interesting.  Last night I called the Dow lower for Wednesday and was pleased to see it down triple digits when I woke up this morning.  But then I watched in dismay as the Dow got back up off the floor and spent the rest of the day rallying before finishing with a 183 point gain, largely oil-driven as far as I can tell.  So that one is clearly a miss.  No matter, we merely dust off and move on to Thursday as we see what the charts have in store.

[Hey Google!  Fix your $%&# spell checker!  I know how to spell but my typing's not so hot.]

Hurt Feelings Dept.

And also the Quote of the Day:
"I also hear that you are not comfortable having me own a Tesla car and have cancelled my order for a Tesla Model X," Alsop said. 
Image result for elon musk
Oy, I'm loaded - I don' gotta sell him no steekin' car!
It seems, according to CNBC, that one  Stewart Alsop, VC, had ordered a Tesla model X electro-car but criticized Tesla CEO Elon Musk for his amateurish presentation of the zap-mobile at its coming-out party.  Turns out Musk's feelings were hurt ... so he canceled Alsop's order.  Highly offended.  Won't sell him one.  No way.

Boo hoo hoo.  Oh the humanity!  (Watch this).  Hey, Elon!  I think your car is ridiculous and overpriced..  It's God's way of telling you you have too much money.  It's ugly too.  I also think you're a doofus and have a funny name.  So there, nyah!  Go ahead, ban me from ever buying a model X, Y, or Z, you big baby.  See if I care.  Looking forward to hearing from you.  XOX, love ya, the Night Owl.

I'll be sure to report what I hear back from my good friend buddy pal Elon.  Sheesh.  Memo to Stewie - go buy a real car, like a 'vette.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow put in a strong green hammer that sent most of the indicators moving higher though only recently off overbought.  The lone exception is the stochastic which continues in bearish crossover mode.  That all leaves this chart too confused for me.

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX put in a giant gravestone doji, but all apparently due to a single one-minute candle at exactly 10:30 AM that spiked to 27.70 and came right back down.  It looks like a bad tick to me but eSignal is still reporting it.  Still I'm taking this with a grain of salt.  If we discount that one bar, we're left with a nondescript inside harami that doesn't amount to much.  And with indicators going nowhere, there's really little direction on this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:20 AM EST with ES up 0.52 %. Like everything else on Wednesday ES put in a big green hammer to go with confused indicators.  But eh new overnight seems to be confirming that candle so there's at least a her of a move higher on Thursday.e

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1905.25 to 2079.67. That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now returns to bullish.

Dollar index: The most dramatic chart of the day was the dollar. It gapped down at the open and then just kept falling, trading entirely below its lower BB for a big loss of 1.61% stopped only by its 200 day MA. That took all the indicators to oversold but the stochastic remains in bearish crossover mode. After a move this big, I'd expect at least a DCB here on Thursday. This all seems way overdone to me.

Euro:  And of course the euro had a big move of its own on Wednesday, blasting right though its upper BB and then its 200 day MA back to 1.1103, a close we haven't seen since last October 21st.  That was enough to send the indicators overbought and I'd expect a bit of retracement after a move this big.

Transportation:  The trans gained a nice 1.04% Wednesday on a pattern much like the Dow, so what I said there applies here too.  We're near the lower edge of a broad rising RTC, so I might guess the next move is higher, but that's just a guess.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

February   1      1       1           0       0.500     113

     And the winner is...

Tonight most of the charts are playing it pretty close to the vest.  With that we have to fall back on the futures and given that they're guiding higher and confirming Wednesday's hammer in ES, I'm going to give it a go and call Thursday higher.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

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