Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1411.75.  Breaking below is bearish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader remaining short at 1396.00.

Recap

Well I guess you don't need charts to predict the markets anymore.  Just watch TV.  Every time a politician comes on and says the word "agreement", buy.  When they say "however", sell.  I'll be really glad when this fiscal cliff finally goes away, one way or another.  But while we're waiting, we might as well look at some charts, just to pass the time.  (And the Blogspot spell checker is on the fritz again so I apologize in advance for any typos I might miss).

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Thursday, the Dow defied the regression trend channel exit by adding on another 37 points to yesterday's gains.  On the plus side, we reclaimed the 13K level.  On the minus side, each of the last three days gains have been getting progressively smaller indicating we may be running out of gas here.  And today's candle was a perfect spinning top, at least warning of a reversal.  The indicators all remain highly overbought, so I still think that technically this chart is due to move lower.  But in this news-driven market, who knows.

The VIX:  I though the VIX would move higher today but instead it dropped another 2.90%, gapping down to form a small inverted hammer.  This too is a reversal candle.  And 15 has been a good recent support level for the VIX.  And there was a doji in the futures too so I'm going to stick to my guns and call for a higher VIX on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are down at 1:00 AM EST with ES lower by 0.16% following a second day of solid gains.  ES, like the Dow is refusing to fall after exiting its rising RTCm somethign that doesn't happen very often.  However, it does sometimes happen that the drop is delayed by two or three days and that may be the case here, particularly since I believe the recent rally was motivated more on hope for a fiscal cliff resolution than any underlying fundamentals or even technicals.  And as we all know, hope is not an investment strategy.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot jumps from 1399.58 to 1411.75.  Because of the big rise in the pivot and the overnight fall of ES, it is now sitting right on the new number and as I write this it looks like it's making a stab at moving below.  If this in fact happens by morning, that would be a bearish sign.

Dollar index: The dollar gapped down today, losing 0.18% on a green spinning top that just tocuhed the lower BB.  Yet another chart with a reversal warning.  And here too the indicators are at extreme levels, in this case oversold.  Technically, this one looks ready to move higher.

Euro: On Thursday the euro moved higher, confirming Wednesday's hammer.  And it's continuing higher in the overnight, no right at the 1.3000 resistance line and very close to its upper BB at 1.3024.  This one looks ready to move lower, meshing well with the dollar chart looking higher.

Transportation: The trans are on a real tear, tacking on another 0.60% today with a green marubozu that broke right through the 200 day MA to stay firmly inside a two week rising RTC.  However, the indicators are all now highly overbought and the stochastic just barely completed a bearish crossover today.  So I'd say there's a good chance of the trans moving lower on Friday.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208November   7      5      6           0        .583     135

     And the winner is...

I'm feeling a bit gun shy here, having been badly wrong two days ago and then totally clueless on Thursday.  And yet tonight I'm seeing the same sorts of features that led me to call Wednesday lower - indicators at extreme levels and a whole assortment of dojis sitting near various S/R lines.  That's got to spell reversal sooner or later.  And tonight I'm thinking sooner.  The SPX, according to The Stock Trader's Almanac, is down 9 of the last 13 on this Friday.  So unless some politician comes on TV on Friday to announce that he or she is "hoping" for "a deal" Real Soon Now, I think we're going lower Friday.  That's all, she wrote.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains, for the time being, at $198,000 after 72 trades (57 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we remain short at 1396.00.  We continue to take the heat on this trade.  Patience may pay off in the end.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1399.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader remaining short at 1396.00.

Recap

Well last night I was complaining about Harry Reid tanking the market.  Today Emperor Neorbama had his shot on TV and also dropped the market.  Then Boehner talked and  it went up.  And up some more.  And all because?  Yeah, I don't know either.  Today was one of those days that demonstrates the limits of technical analysis.  I went over the charts and don't see how I could have come to any other conclusion last night than that we were going lower Wednesday.  But all Mr. Market needed to hear was that there was some "hope" that a fiscal cliff would be reached by Christmas (what year?) and we were off to the races.  I'm vaguely considering taking December off because of this fiscal cliff nonsense.  But, out of force of habit let's look at those charts again tonight, for whatever they're worth.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow certainly surprised me by moving up 107 points on Wednesday.  This completely retraced Tuesday's losses and then some, but still stopped short of the 200 day MA now at 12,994.  And the indicators are now even more overbought than yesterday, though the bearish stochastic crossover just got canceled out.  Also, today's gain was not enough to get us back into the last rising RTC so technically today was actually a bearish trigger.  But somehow today's pin action just didn't feel bearish.  If you discount the tail on today's green candle (which was largely due to Obama's speech) then you get a bullish engulfing pattern.  It remains to be seen if the Dow has enough gas in the tank to cross the 200 day MA on Thursday.

The VIX:  And more topsy turvey action in the VIX today as it dropped 2.58% but did it on a red candle hanging off the top of yesterday's.  This keeps us right around the 15.5 mark for the third day running now with no clear direction.  The indicators remain oversold though so I still have to believe the next move is up.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are up at 1:15 AM EST with ES higher by a non-trivial 0.34%.  Like the Dow, today's green candle wasn't quite enough to get ES back into its rising RTC so technically this is a bearish trigger.  But you'd never know it from the overnight follow-through.  And we've got highly overbought daily indicators, but the weekly indicators are just coming off oversold, so I'll admit I have no idea where this chart is going.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot dips from 1400.25 to 1399.58  We spent most of the day above the old number and with ES drifting higher in the overnight, we're even higher above the new pivot, so that remains bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar took a small loss, falling 0.09% on Wednesday on a dark cloud cover implying a move lower coming.  But the indicators remain oversold, implying a move higher.  The dollar has been putting in higher lows for three of the past four days so I'm leaning towards a move higher on Thursday, but it's hardly clear cut.

Euro: The euro's bearish RTC trigger from last night held today as the currency put in a small red hammer, so at least I got this one right.  The overnight though is trading higher and forming another doji suggesting possible lower action on Thursday.  The indicators remain quite overbought so I still have to think that the euro has more of a chance to move lower than higher from here.  This would also agree with my guess for a higher dollar on Thursday.

Transportation: Yesterday's spinning top was canceled as the trans also scored big on Wednesday, gaining 0.74% in a move that ended exactly on their 200 day MA at 5114.  This also drove the indicators very overbought with RSI now a heady 96.58.  We do remain solidly inside a rising RTC though so it's too soon to call the trans lower just yet.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      5      5           0        .583     135

     And the winner is...

Hard to say.  I can usually get a feel for where things are headed from the charts.  But today's action was unsettling.  When the market does not behave the way I'm expecting, I like to take a step back and wait for the dust to settle.  Right now Mr. Market is going off in five different directions at once depending on whether Emperor Nerobama waved before saying hi or said hi and then waved.  None of this makes any sense.

If our esteemed "leaders" can somehow avert the fiscal cliff before Christmas (something I highly doubt) then look for a monster rally.  If New Year's rolls around with no resolution, then look out below.  In the meantime, watch for the market to continue to be jerked around every time some fool on the Hill opens his mouth.  This is the ultimate news-driven market and as such technicals count for little.  Therefore, I'm just going to declare Thursday uncertain, not because I'm expecting a doji day but because I honestly have no idea where we're going.  Personally, I'm net long but holding onto my SPXS position.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains, for the time being, at $198,000 after 72 trades (57 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we remain short at 1396.00.  We'll take some heat on this one for a while.  If it doesn't pan out by Friday though I'm seriously going to have to consider pulling the plug.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower, medium confidence.
• ES pivot 1400.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader going short at 1396.00..

Recap

Last night I called this a sneeze market, where Mr. Market is going "ahh... ahhh..." but not "choo".  Well we can thank Harry Reid today for providing the "choo" today and turning a nice gain into an ugly 89 point loss for the Dow.  Thanks a bunch Harry, you destroyer of wealth, you, you ... politician, thanks for nothing.  Ahem, OK, now that I've got my feathers unruffled, let's get right to the charts.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: You can see on this chart the very instant the Dow collapsed when Dirty Harry opened his mouth: 2:21 PM.  Which is a bit puzzling in a way because I have very little faith that Congress will do much more before the end of the year other than what Congress does best - kick the can down the road.  So negative comments about the fiscal cliff should come as a complete surprise to absolutely no one.  But politics aside, today's action was particularly damaging technically.  It dropped us out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup, it caused a top in RSI, and just completed a bearish stochastic crossover.  That's three strikes, yer out!

The VIX:  And today's news certainly woke up Mr. VIX, as the index gained 2.71% to form a bullish engulfing candle and bottoming out the indicators from oversold levels.  Last night I wrote about "further VIX gains on Tuesday" and I'm going to call for the same on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are down at 1:02 AM EST with ES lower by 0.11%.  Today's ES story was pretty much the same as the Dow.  We dropped out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup and the bearish stochastic crossover is now complete.   Further downside in the overnight provides the bearish RTC trigger and with the indicators remaining highly overbought, it looks like there's more downside risk than upside potential here.  I'll add that the SPX Hi-Lo index hit 100 yesterday, and that' usually a good sign that we're going lower soon.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot ticks down from 1401.08 to 1400.25.  We broke under the old number Tuesday afternoon and remain below the new pivot, so that's all bearish.  Though ES did drift a bit higher this evening, it's not really showing much appetite for mounting an attack on the pivot, so far at least.

Dollar index: Yesterday' little reed hammer was confirmed today as the dollar gained 0.20% on a move that moved the stochastic into position to execute a bullish crossover on Wednesday.  With RSI having bottomed in oversold territory, I'd say the dollar has more room to run here.

Euro: And that theory is supported by the behavior of the euro which today was unable to make it past resistance at 1.3000, posting a decline that dropped it out of a 10 day rising RTC for a bearish setup.  And it's trading lower again in the overnight - there's your bearish trigger.  And the bearish stochastic crossover is now completed and confirmed.  The euro appears to have topped here and is ready to move lower.

Transportation: The trans did not fare as badly as the Dow today, losing just 0.15% but they did give us a spinning top warning of a reversal.  Coupled with the highly overbought indicators, I'd pay attention to this one even though we remain inside the rising RTC.  I'll add that the trans stopped just short of the 200 day MA intraday and I'm thinking that today may have been a top.

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.  Here's the updated cumulative list for this year (it's getting pretty long):

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl SPX  Accuracy

  1  1/3        46         21        +     1258   1/1

  2  1/9        56         37        +     1278   2/2

  3  1/17       41         33        +     1289   3/3

  4  1/23       46         32        +     1315   4/4

  5  1/30       48         31        +     1316   5/5

  6  2/6        56         30        +     1345   6/6

  7  2/13       48         31        +     1343   7/7

  8  2/21       44         32        +     1361   8/8

  9  2/27       48         24        +     1366   9/9

 10  3/5        43         26        +     1370  10/10

 11  3/12       46         32        +     1371  11/11

 12  3/19       46         29        +     1404  11/12

 13  3/26       39         29        +     1397  11/13

 14  4/2        42         21        +     1408  11/14

 15  4/9        25         46        -     1398  12/15

 16  4/16       26         48        -     1370  13/16
 17  4/23       30         48        -     1379  14/17

 18  4/30       44         32        +     1403  14/18

 19  5/7        23         50        -     1350  15/19

 20  5/14       32         44        -     1353  16/20

 21  5/21       30         52        -     1295  16/21

 22  5/29       35         42        -     1318  16/22

 23  6/4        32         48        -     1278  16/23

 24  6/11       28         40        -     1326  16/24

 25  6/18       39         26        -     1343  16/25

 26  6/25       38         46        -     1335  16/26

 27  7/2        41         40        -     1362  16/27

 28  7/9        42         38        -     1355  16/28

 29  7/16       44         32        -     1357  16/29

 30  7/23       33         42        -     1363  16/30

 31  7/30       43         22        +     1386  17/31

 32  8/6        52         28        +     1391  18/32

 33  8/13       43         21        +     1406  19/33

 34  8/20       46         31        +     1418  20/34

 35  8/27       39         29        +     1411  21/35

 36  9/4        31         38        +     1407  22/36

 37  9/10       54         29        +     1438  23/37

 38  9/17       63         22        +     1466  23/38

 39  9/24       52         30        +     1460  23/39

 40  10/1       39         39        -     1441  24/40

 41  10/8       52         34        +     1461  24/41

 42  10/15      41         32        -     1429  25/42

 43  10/22      38         41        -     1433  26/43

 44  10/29      36         43        -     1412  27/44

 45  11/5       44         33        -     1414

 46  11/12      38         46        -     1380 

 47  11/19      52         34        +     1360

 48  11/26      48         26        +     1409

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that my bearish call on 10/29 was right, the S&P now being lower than then. I'm using the column "Accuracy" to track my calls.  So now with just four weeks to go in 2012, I'm 27 for 43 or 63%.  Interestingly, this number is close to my average daily call performance as measured below.

For the record, I voted bullish again this week.  And this week we see that bullish sentiment declined a bit but bearish sentiment declined eight points indicating that some people are moving to the sidelines, possibly reflecting uncertainty over the fiscal cliff.  All I go by though is the weekly and monthly SPX charts.  I look for regression trends and stochastic crossovers and for the moment at least they're looking good.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      4      5           0        .636     242

     And the winner is...

Tonight the evidence clearly favors the bears.  I'll add that copper took a beating today, down 0.92% but remaining overbought and TLT completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  In fact I can't find any real bullish (for stocks) signs anywhere tonight so I'm simply calling Wednesday lower.  Things were looking bad enough that I took out some SPXS at 18.21 just after the close to hedge my longs.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $198,000 after 72 trades (57 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we go short at 1396.00.  You can follow these trades live on Twitter @nightowltrader.

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1401.08.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

As has been the pattern of late, the Dow hasn't been able to put together two consecutive big up days and today took a breather in the form of a 42 point loss.  But with a number of factors in play now, including the usual end of year seasonality, news from Europe, news from China, and the endless fiscal cliff, we're at an interesting juncture.  Let's see if the charts can point out the road to success.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Once again, the Dow was stymied by its 200 day MA, briefly crossing above intraday only to retreat and close back under at 12,967, also giving up the 13K support level in the process.  And the indicators got more overbought although the stochastic is still not forming a bearish crossover yet and we still remain inside the rising RTC.  Today's candle was a hanging man, but that's the kind of reversal warning that requires confirmation, so I'm hesitant to call this chart lower Tuesday on that basis alone.

The VIX:  Last night I called for "a higher VIX on Monday" and we got it, with the index gapping up for a 2.38% gain.  But it did it with a bearish shooting star.  So we now have a bearish candle but highly oversold indicators somewhat at odds with each other.  I'll note that the futures continue to look bearish so I'm going to be cautious about the prospects for further VIX gains on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are up at 1:06 AM EST with ES higher by 0.25%.  Today's ES candle was almost a dragonfly doji and it drove the indicators to a highly overbought level with RSI now at 93.5 and the SPX Hi-Lo indicator hitting 100, all bearish signs.  But - we remain inside the rising RTC indicating that the uptrend is not over yet and we're not seeing any downward pressure in the overnight so far so I'm cautious about being overly pessimistic on this chart.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot bumps up from 1400.00  to 1401.08.  We broke above the old number around 2 PM Monday and have been drifting higher ever since, so that's a bullish sign.

Dollar index: On Monday the dollar gained just 0.04% but did it with a little red hammer that kept the chart oversold.  Like the other charts above, this one is somewhat lacking in direction and I'm not taking a stab at it.

Euro: Continuing the theme of ambiguity, the euro gave us a small red spinning top on Monday.  My guess is that while the indicators may be overbought, they're becoming overbought-broken and the candle is suggesting some underlying support that's preventing a breakdown.  Indeed, the new developing candle is currently a doji but one that's sitting 0.21% above Monday's candle.  And all this action remains well within the rising RTC.  This may be the clearest chart tonight and I'm thinking the euro could move higher again on Tuesday.

Transportation: The trans continued their winning ways today to the tune of 0.65% even as the Dow sank 0.33%.  This keeps them solidly inside their rising RTC.  This was enough to just send them into overbought but the stochastic is nowhere near going bearish.  And there's no resistance until the 200 day MA at 5116.  Last night I called this chart "pretty good" and I'd have to say it's still looking good tonight.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      4      4           0        .636     242

     And the winner is...

This is looking like a sneeze market.  You know how someone goes "ahh.. ahhh..." and you keep waiting for the "choo" only it doesn't happen?  Technically, the charts seem to be looking toppy here and ready to roll over.  But I'm thinking Tuesday may be more a function of the IMF news on Greece that just came out.  We also have some good news on Chinese industrial profits as well as good US holiday consumer numbers.  And Tuesday is historically quite bullish and the strongest day of this week.

All of which sort of leaves us hanging between the Scylla of good news and the Charyibdis of bearish technicals.  And that can only leave me with one possible verdict: Tuesday uncertain.  I'm going to just sit back and wait for the break either way.  That's all she wrote.

ES Fantasy Trader

I was actually thinking of pulling the plug on last night's short tghis morning and then figured I'd just check my email first.  Of course by the time I came back, most of my gains had evaporated so I settled for just half a point profit.  Still, I'm glad I got out when I did because ES just kept going higher from there.  Oh well - they can't all be home runs.

Portfolio stats:  the account now rises to  $198,000 after 72 trades (57 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we stand aside.

BOT    10    false    ES    DEC12 Futures     1398.50    USD    GLOBEX    11:56:36   
SLD    10    false    ES    DEC12 Futures     1399.00    USD    GLOBEX    01:35:52   

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1400.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader going short at 1399.00.

Recap

I hope everyone had a tasty and relaxing Thanksgiving.  We skipped Friday's rump session that soared 173 points because, well who knows why the Dow did that.  But my last call was for Wednesday lower and that ended up being wrong by 49 points.  But now it's Sunday night and time to get back to the markets, so let's run down the charts.
The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Black Friday was all green for the Dow as it popped 1.35% to retake the 13K psychological support level.  And even that wasn't enough to send this index to overbought levels.  So there's really nothing negative on this chart tonight.

The VIX:  In an interesting bit of divergence, while the Dow jumped on Friday, the VIX declined, but only by 1.11%, and that was on a green candle.  And after spending three days playing tag with its lower BB, Friday's action broke away.  And finally, the stochastic on Friday just eked out a bullish crossover.  All that spells a higher VIX on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are down at 1:30 AM EST with ES lower by a non-trivial 0.43%.  After Friday's big gains, this move still keeps us well inside the current rising RTC but it also leaves us highly overbought and with a stochastic that just formed a bearish crossover.  This is definitely the weakest looking chart of the evening.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops jumps 1385.00  to 1400.00 even.As I write this, ES just spent about half an hour playing with this new level and now looks to be breaking below it, a bearish sign.

Dollar index: The dollar took a big gap down on Friday, losing 0.90% and that was enough to drive it oversold.  We're also getting close to the lower BB but there's still no immediate reversal in sight here.

Euro: After getting hung up on the 200 day MA last Wednesday, the euro had its best day since September 7th jumping all the way to its upper BB at 1.3008 and driving its indicators well into oversold territory..  After a run like that, a pullback is to be expected and that is indeed what we're seeing in the Sunday overnight, now back to 1.2958.  The stochastic also seems to be setting up for a bearish crossover so I'd say the euro looks like it may take a breather on Monday.

Transportation: After small gains last Wednesday and a big 1./09% boost on Friday, the trans are now in a clear rising RTC and are still a good ways from being overbought.  The only negative here is some resistance at 5060 but all in all this chart looks pretty good.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   6      4      4           0        .600     200

     And the winner is...

With the big gains we saw on Friday for no particularly good reason, I'd expect a bit of profit taking come Monday.  That feeling seems to be reflected in the current state of both ES and the currencies where we have some incipient bearish technical indicators.  And while the SPX Hi-Lo index isn't quite pegged yet, at 93.55 it's signaling some serious overboughtedness (is that a word?).  Finally, there's a historic bullish bias to the last week of this month, but it doesn't particularly apply to month.  So all things considered, I'm going to just go ahead and say, Monday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $197,750 after 71 trades (56 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we go short at 1399.00.