Friday, July 17, 2015

Friday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday - no call.
  • ES pivot 2112.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

It was good that I chose last night to put the futures ahead of the dojis on the charts as the Dow rose yet another 70 points on Thursday.  Today though was one of those days when Real Life (TM) got in the way of watching the markets and therefore I just ran out of time.  So there is no analysis tonight.  I'm taking a Personal Day, as we used to call them at the Giant Corporation I used to work for.  Heck I figure if they could do it, so can I.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  again from 2102.33 to 2112.75. 

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       6      0       4           0       1.000    854


     And the winner is...

No call tonight.  We're taking Friday off.  So that's all she didn't even write.  See you again (for sure) Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

With another gain on Thursday, it looks like we missed this particular bus for VZ.  We're now near the upper BB and this rally is getting a little long in the tooth.  In any case, it's definitely not a swing buy right now.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 2102.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Obama's inspiration
Last night I called Wednesday uncertain and with a net Dow change of just -3.4 points that seems to have been the right call.

Political rant

I amused myself this afternoon by watching the Empty Suit imagining himself the statesman on TV as he channeled his inner Neville Chamberlain waving about his Iranian agreement and thinking he'd accomplished something.

Remember what the Fuhrer said back in 1938 after Chamberlain departed, "That piece of paper means nothing".  Obviously they don't teach European history at Harvard Law School.  Meanwhile the Ayatollahs are popping the champagne corks in Tehran all the while their sycophants burn American flags in the streets and shout "Death to America".

Obama's new friends
Way to go, Obama.  Take a good look - these are the people you think are going to sing kumbaya around the camp fire with you.  Well, they've got the fire going anyway.  What were you thinking?  The world, sir, is laughing at you.  So sad.


The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow was up, then down, then up some more and down some more as various pieces of news came out.  In the end it all signified nothing as we got a perfect little doji star.  After four big up days and with indicators now overbought, that's a decent reversal sign, IMHO,

The VIX:  And the VIX was pretty much in the same boat with a doji of its own on Wednesday.  With its stochastic curving around for a bullish crossover, indicators nearing oversold, and a massive four day run-down, this one looks ready to move higher any day now.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:15 AM EDT with ES up  0.30%.  ES managed another gain on Wednesday but did it on a small spinning top.  The gains in fact have been shrinking for three days now as ES looks to be running out of steam.  More worrisome, the stochastic is curving around and is that close to a bearish crossover.  On the other hand, the overnight is putting in a non-trivial advance, possibly on some more Greek news, so once again we can't call a reversal yet.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2099.33 to 2102.33.  But ES still remains above its new pivot so this indicator just continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Wednesday the fidgety dollar popped 0.51%as it continues to pinball its way through July.  We're now near month-long resistance but with the way things have been going lately, who knows.  I'm still not calling this one.

Euro:  And a good example - last night I figured the euro was showing signs of bottoming.  But noooo, instead it fell again, this time to 1.0957 after breaking support at 1.0989.  Anyway, we now have a new descending RTC going and the overnight is continuing lower so no technical reversal signs here.

Transportation:  After a divergent doji on Tuesday warning of a reversal, on Wednesday the trans confirmed that with a big 0.72% decline that underperformed the Dow and provided even more bearish confirmation.  Add in a bearish setup on a rising RTC exit and a stochastic within inches of a bearish crossover and that all spells lower on Thursday to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       4           0       1.000    784


     And the winner is...

Hmm, we're seeing a number of dojis i the charts tonight that generally signal reversals.  But the market has been largely news-driven lately so much as I love my candlesticks, I'm afraid I'm going to have to go with the futures tonight and call Thursday higher.  A 0.30% advance i the wee hours is too much to just ignore.

Single Stock Trader

With a classic hanging man on Wednesday VZ is now looking technically toppy and so is definitely not a swing trade buy at this point.

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2099.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

We declared Monday uncertain because of Greece and Tuesday uncertain because of question  that the market had run too far too fast and was in need of a pause.  Well as is his wont, Mr. Market pulled a surprise and the Dow managed to add on another 76 points for its biggest three day run since February.

The technicals

The Dow:  It didn't quite match the previous two big gains but the Dow rose 76 Tuesday nonetheless.  A new rising RTC is thus in place, we're still not overbought and with no resistance til 18,134, there still seems to be some room to run here.

The VIX:  The VIX fell again Tuesday as expected with a small red hammer.  But being not yet oversold and still nowhere near support or its lower BB, there's no reversal sign here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:08 AM EDT with ES up 0.08%.  ES had a good day Tuesday but seems to be running out of steam as the indicators near overbought.  The new overnight is a doji so far but it's still too early to call a reversal here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2080.42 to 2099.33. And once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Tuesday the dollar continued bouncing around with a small spinning top reflecting continuing uncertainty in Greece and China.  This chart is too tough for me.

Euro:  Similarly on Tuesday the euro also gave us a doji, but support around 1.0992 held and with indicators still near oversold I'd say there's more upside potential than downside risk here.

Transportation:  In a bit of bearish divergence, the trans lost 0.07% on a small doji star on Tuesday, snapping a big three day winning streak.  With indicators nearly overbought this could mean a reversal on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
 

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       2           0       1.000    784


     And the winner is...

Sigh, it looks like I'm just going to have to call Wednesday uncertain given the plethora of upcoming news, including Auntie Janet, a report on the Chinese economy, and those Greeks again.  Any one of those could easily trump the technicals which still aren't showing a bearish reversal yet.

Single Stock Trader

VZ gained a bit again on Tuesday but this still isnt' my preferred swing entry pattern .  It's just acting a bit too jittery for my tastes, so we leave it be again.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2080.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Well Mr. Market seemed happy with the outcome of the all-night Greek negotiations, in which the Greeks promised to do stuff they never have and aren't likely to ever do.  But no matter, optics is everything in the stock market and on Tuesday Mr. Market had his rose-colored glasses on.  Go figure.  Now can we please get on with it and see where Tuesday is headed?

The technicals

The Dow:  As has been so often the case lately, all the action on Monday was over in the first two minutes of trading.  The other six hours and 28 minutes were just noise.  How anyone can make money this way is beyond me.  I certainly can't.  In any case that now gives us three up days in a row and two white soldiers that have finally marched away from the 200 day MA.  With rising indicators this chart once again looks bullish.

The VIX:  Perhaps the most dramatic chart of the day was the VIX which plunged over 17% to gap down right through its 200 day MA on a tall red marubozu.  With a now complete bearish stochastic crossover and falling indicators, this one looks nothing but bearish.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:50 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%.  On Monday ES had its best day of the year so far zooming back to 2094.50 on a giant marubozu.  And that didn't even drive the indicators overbought yet.  So there are really no bearish signs to speak of here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot leaps from 2062.83 to 2080.42.  But even that giant move wasn't enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar on Monday had its sixth gap move in six days with a big 0.86% jump that was good enough to form a bullish stochastic crossover.  Still not overbought and with resistance some distance away, I'd say there could be room to run higher again from here.

Euro:  After what appeared to be a breakout from its descending RTC on Friday, the euro proceeded to give it all back on Monday and then some, down to 1.1007.  Of course now we're near support and the new overnight is actually higher, so any further downside from here may be limited.

Transportation:  The trans had a great day Monday, up a percent for three white soldiers and a new rising RTC that stopped right at resistance at 8303.  Indicators are now near overbought so it's not clear we can push any higher from here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       1           0       1.000    784


     And the winner is...

I don't really see any bearish technical indications in the charts tonight.  However, I am concerned that we've come pretty far in the past two days, and three day streaks have been exceedingly rare this year so far.  This seems like a market that's ready for a pause, possibly a doji day.  So rather than simply call the close higher in the absence of any bearish signs, I'm going to have to content myself with calling Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ gained 20 cents Monday but was the third from the worst in the Dow on a red hanging man.  With RSI peaked just short of overbought and stymied by resistance at 47.39, I can't recommend this as a swing buy right now.

Monday, July 13, 2015

Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2062.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Well the market rose as expected last Friday because Mr. Market believed the Greeks the same way Linus believed Lucy wasn't going to pull the football away when he was about to place-kick it.  Ho hum.  So, after seeing a Good Greek, that means we must be in line for a day of the Bad Greeks, right?  Let's see if the charts can sort it out in time for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow scored another triple digit gain the net result of which was that we ended up exactly where we were seven trading days ago.  It also makes nine consecutive days of 200 day MA crosses in a row.  The net take-away is that there's strong resistance at 17,755.  Unless we get a breakout on Monday it seems more likely we go down again.

The VIX:  After spending six of the last eight above its upper BB, on Friday the VIX finally threw in the towel and dove nearly 16% back under 17.  That sent the indicators off overbought and set up the stochastic for a bearish crossover.  So technically this chart looks lower - ah but then there's them Greeks....

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are essentially flat for the first time in quite a while at 12:26 AM EDT with ES down  all of 0.01% but YM up 0.01%.  On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's gravestone doji off the 200 day MA with a nice gain and is now almost back to recent strong resistance around 2072.  That in itself would seem to limit potential upside.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2049.17 to 2062.83. But ES still remains above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  After a crazy week of up and down gaps, the dollar on Friday ended exactly where it began after a 0.64% loss.  But we remain overbought and a completed stochastic crossover is in effect so the possibility of more downside on Monday remains.

Euro:  On Friday the euro climbed to 1.1150, its eighth day in a row of alternating down/up action.  The overnight is continuing higher but Monday's close will surely be dictated by the news from Greece.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans outperformed the Dow to break resistance at 8176 on a tall green marubozu.  The indicators are now marching steadily toward overbought so there's nothing bearish about this chart tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       0           0       1.000    784


     And the winner is...

Once again the market is hanging on the latest installment of As the Drachma Turns as the European scriptwriters burn the midnight oil trying to answer the question posed by those noted geopolitical analysts, The Clash, about Greece, "Should I stay or should I go?"  I personally have no clue, but the outcome will determine Monday's close, not the technicals.  Therefore, I call Monday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ went up on Friday, along with the entire rest of the Dow.  It's all being run by Greece at the moment, so there's no point discussing it any further until that whole bro-ha is settled.