Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
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• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2099.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

We declared Monday uncertain because of Greece and Tuesday uncertain because of question  that the market had run too far too fast and was in need of a pause.  Well as is his wont, Mr. Market pulled a surprise and the Dow managed to add on another 76 points for its biggest three day run since February.

The technicals

The Dow:  It didn't quite match the previous two big gains but the Dow rose 76 Tuesday nonetheless.  A new rising RTC is thus in place, we're still not overbought and with no resistance til 18,134, there still seems to be some room to run here.

The VIX:  The VIX fell again Tuesday as expected with a small red hammer.  But being not yet oversold and still nowhere near support or its lower BB, there's no reversal sign here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:08 AM EDT with ES up 0.08%.  ES had a good day Tuesday but seems to be running out of steam as the indicators near overbought.  The new overnight is a doji so far but it's still too early to call a reversal here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2080.42 to 2099.33. And once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Tuesday the dollar continued bouncing around with a small spinning top reflecting continuing uncertainty in Greece and China.  This chart is too tough for me.

Euro:  Similarly on Tuesday the euro also gave us a doji, but support around 1.0992 held and with indicators still near oversold I'd say there's more upside potential than downside risk here.

Transportation:  In a bit of bearish divergence, the trans lost 0.07% on a small doji star on Tuesday, snapping a big three day winning streak.  With indicators nearly overbought this could mean a reversal on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       2           0       1.000    784

     And the winner is...

Sigh, it looks like I'm just going to have to call Wednesday uncertain given the plethora of upcoming news, including Auntie Janet, a report on the Chinese economy, and those Greeks again.  Any one of those could easily trump the technicals which still aren't showing a bearish reversal yet.

Single Stock Trader

VZ gained a bit again on Tuesday but this still isnt' my preferred swing entry pattern .  It's just acting a bit too jittery for my tastes, so we leave it be again.