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- Wednesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2099.33. Holding above is bullish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
We declared Monday uncertain because of Greece and Tuesday uncertain because of question that the market had run too far too fast and was in need of a pause. Well as is his wont, Mr. Market pulled a surprise and the Dow managed to add on another 76 points for its biggest three day run since February.
The Dow: It didn't quite match the previous two big gains but the Dow rose 76 Tuesday nonetheless. A new rising RTC is thus in place, we're still not overbought and with no resistance til 18,134, there still seems to be some room to run here.
The VIX: The VIX fell again Tuesday as expected with a small red hammer. But being not yet oversold and still nowhere near support or its lower BB, there's no reversal sign here.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:08 AM EDT with ES up 0.08%. ES had a good day Tuesday but seems to be running out of steam as the indicators near overbought. The new overnight is a doji so far but it's still too early to call a reversal here.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2080.42 to 2099.33. And once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.
Dollar index: On Tuesday the dollar continued bouncing around with a small spinning top reflecting continuing uncertainty in Greece and China. This chart is too tough for me.
Euro: Similarly on Tuesday the euro also gave us a doji, but support around 1.0992 held and with indicators still near oversold I'd say there's more upside potential than downside risk here.
Transportation: In a bit of bearish divergence, the trans lost 0.07% on a small doji star on Tuesday, snapping a big three day winning streak. With indicators nearly overbought this could mean a reversal on Wednesday.
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 5 0 2 0 1.000 784
And the winner is...
Sigh, it looks like I'm just going to have to call Wednesday uncertain given the plethora of upcoming news, including Auntie Janet, a report on the Chinese economy, and those Greeks again. Any one of those could easily trump the technicals which still aren't showing a bearish reversal yet.
Single Stock Trader
VZ gained a bit again on Tuesday but this still isnt' my preferred swing entry pattern . It's just acting a bit too jittery for my tastes, so we leave it be again.