Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2099.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

We declared Monday uncertain because of Greece and Tuesday uncertain because of question  that the market had run too far too fast and was in need of a pause.  Well as is his wont, Mr. Market pulled a surprise and the Dow managed to add on another 76 points for its biggest three day run since February.

The technicals

The Dow:  It didn't quite match the previous two big gains but the Dow rose 76 Tuesday nonetheless.  A new rising RTC is thus in place, we're still not overbought and with no resistance til 18,134, there still seems to be some room to run here.

The VIX:  The VIX fell again Tuesday as expected with a small red hammer.  But being not yet oversold and still nowhere near support or its lower BB, there's no reversal sign here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:08 AM EDT with ES up 0.08%.  ES had a good day Tuesday but seems to be running out of steam as the indicators near overbought.  The new overnight is a doji so far but it's still too early to call a reversal here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2080.42 to 2099.33. And once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Tuesday the dollar continued bouncing around with a small spinning top reflecting continuing uncertainty in Greece and China.  This chart is too tough for me.

Euro:  Similarly on Tuesday the euro also gave us a doji, but support around 1.0992 held and with indicators still near oversold I'd say there's more upside potential than downside risk here.

Transportation:  In a bit of bearish divergence, the trans lost 0.07% on a small doji star on Tuesday, snapping a big three day winning streak.  With indicators nearly overbought this could mean a reversal on Wednesday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       2           0       1.000    784

     And the winner is...

Sigh, it looks like I'm just going to have to call Wednesday uncertain given the plethora of upcoming news, including Auntie Janet, a report on the Chinese economy, and those Greeks again.  Any one of those could easily trump the technicals which still aren't showing a bearish reversal yet.

Single Stock Trader

VZ gained a bit again on Tuesday but this still isnt' my preferred swing entry pattern .  It's just acting a bit too jittery for my tastes, so we leave it be again.

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