Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2113.00.  Golding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Last night's conditional call worked well enough for Thursday.  ES noodled about it pivot al the way til 3 AM and then broke decisively lower.  It was still lower by mid-morning so the call went into effect.  And despite a brief attempt at a late afternoon breakout, the market finished the day lower.  Not by much, but lower anyway.  Tonight we're doing a Night Owl Lite - no detailed charts, just conclusions.

The technicals


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:59 AM EST with ES down 0.11%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2114.75 to 2113.00.  ES is now below its new pivot so this indicator is bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       1      2       3           1       0.500     -97

     And the winner is...

Tonight we have some fairly bearish charts, including the Dow with a hanging man that failed to break Wednesday's highs, and the VIX which is on a three day winning streak but nowhere near overbought  So all in all I'm going to take a chance and call Friday lower.  That's all she (barely) wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2114.75.  No guidance tonight.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Well shoot.  So much for Wednesday's big gravestone doji in the Dow.  That influenced my call for a lower close but the Dow was essentially nothing but up, up, and away to finish with a 67 point gain.  This requires some rethinking as we continue on to Thursday so let's ponder those pesky charts pronto.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow folowed up Tuesday's aforementioned gravestone doji with a green marubozu and bullish engulfing pattern that curvbef the indicators higher again to just short of overbought.  So with the 18K handle reclaimed and only minor resistance at 18,043, I see nothing bearish here tonight.

The VIX:  And to confirm how bizarre the current situation is, once again the VIX moved in tandem with the market, something it rarely does, up 0.21% agains tthe Dow's 0.37%.  It was a fat green spinning top sitting atop Tuesday's big move but there's nothing here I can see to call a move lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:18 AM EST with ES down 0.15%. ES had a great day Wednesdaya s we rapidly close in on the highs of 2015.  With a green marubozu, a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level,  and no further resistance in sight, I see no technical reaosn to call this chart lower other than the sag in the overnight.  But one does have to take uncooked candles with a grain of salt.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2111.50 to 2114.75.  That now leaves ES smack dab on top of its new pivot, so no guidance here at this time.

Dollar index: Last night I said that "I can't yet call the dollar higher.".  And that was a good thing because the dollar made a big gap down on Wednesday, off another 0.27% but on anice morning star.  Indicators ar enwo oversold and the stochastic is just shy of a bullish crossover so with this yawning gap now above us I'd say there's more upside potential than downside risk to the dollar.

Euro: However, I did miss the euro which popped back up to 1.13990 on Wednesday instead of moving lower.  But that only served to move the indicators higher into overbought territory and put the sotchastic on the cusp of a bearish crossover.  So I'm sticking to my guns and claiming the euro is due to move lower Any Day Now.

Transportation:  Perhaps the most bearish sign of the day wa the trans.  True, they were up 0.58% but it was on an inverted hammer that stopped right on their upper BB.  Indicators ar enow overbought so there's at least a chance of a move lower from here.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       1      2       3           0       0.333     -97
     And the winner is...

With ES sitting on top of its new pivot and a failure of Tuesday's candles, I'm going to do a conditional call tonight.  This effectively simply delays my decision as to the direction of the close until mid-morning (10:45 AM).  If ES breaks above its new pivot and stays there by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks lower and stays there, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2111.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

On Tuesday the Dow did its best to derail my call for a higher close with a late afternoon tumble but we were saved by the bell, quite literally and ended the day up all of 18 points.  So with all that excitement out of the way, we wend our weary way to Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  We got a classic gravestone doji here and a gap-up one at that.  Though the indicators remain just shy of overbought, this is a clear bearish sign.  Take a look.

The VIX:  We got another unusual day Tuesday, this itme with the VIX rising on a day the rest of the market was up too.  This was a tall green marubozu that nearly touched its lower BB.  With a bullish engulfing candle, rising indicators, and a completed bullish stochastic crossove,r this chart looks higher for Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:23 AM EST with ES down 0.04%. ES put in a tall inverted hammer on Tuesday as the indicators continue to slowly fall off of overbought.  With the new overnight again unable to advance any, this chart looks lower to me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2089.92 to 2111.58.   That's enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index: The dollar continued its recent precipituous drop on Tuesdya, off another 0.06%as the indicators remain oversold and we near the lower BB.  But this still isn't a reversal candle so I can't yet call the dollar higher.

Euro: Meanwhile the euro has hit a brick wall around 1.1391.  With two spining tops in a row after failing to advance much following last Friday's great leap forward,and with overbought indicators and a stochastic posied for a bearish crossove,r this chart looks lower to me.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans outperformed the Dow in a big way, up 1.06% to 0.10%.  This move sent all the indicators overbought and just touched their upper BB, but it also formed a bullish stochastic crossover form a high level, something that's often good for another day or two of higher prices.  So there just might still be a bit of room to run here.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       1      1       3           0       0.500     -30
     And the winner is...

With a few decent topping candles on the charts tonight and indicators that remain a lot closed to overbought than oversold, I'm going to throw all caution to the wind and call Wednesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher. 
• ES pivot 2104.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight

Recap

After three days of unrelenting indecision, I wasn't about to call a market ahead of a fireside chat from Auntie Janet.  Turns out that was a good thing because even though the indicators remain overbought, Mr. Market liked what she had to say and up we went for a 113 point advance in the Dow.  Tonight it's a Night Owl Lite night again so let's go right to the bottom line.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:43 AM EST with ES up just a single tick.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2095.50 to 2104.83.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot, though not by much.  Nevertheless, this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       0      1       3           0       0.000     -49
     And the winner is...

Frustratrringly, the candles and the charts continue to contradict each other.  The indicators all remain overbought and point to a move lower but we actually got some rather bullish candles on Monday.  The Dow dfor instance put in a near marubozu that broke recent resistance, formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level and seems to be wanting to chek out its upper BB from here.  So I'm a bit nervous about doing this but I'm going to go out on a limb anyway and call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain. 
• ES pivot 2095.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short from 17,740 covered at 17,717.

Recap

Last Thursday night I continued to be perplexed by a positive plethora of confusing market signs so I just gave up and called Friday uncertain.  As it turns out we saw pretty much a carbon copy of what we got all week long - three reversal signs in a row but no real trend developing despite some absolutely appalling jobs number.  Perhaps now that everyone is back at work and we have a full week on the table, we'll see things start moving again.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow exited a rising RTC last Tuesday and then gave us a bearish trigger on Wednesday.  But  Thursday and Friday stubbornly refused to break.  Indeed Friday gave us  a tall doji star.  Indicators are slowly coming off overbought and moving lower so the overall tone here is still negative.

The VIX:  On Friday the VIX dropped 1.17% in an unusual move as it fell on a day the rest or the market also moved lower.  It nearly touched its lower BB as it successfully tested 10 month long support.  But it also formed a bearish stochastic crossover from a low level.  And that contradicts the hammer candle laving this chart entirely up in the air.  (Though those low-level stochastic crossovers are never a good sign).

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:31 AM EST with ES down 0.05%. ES put in four reversal candles in a row last week before finally coming down a bit on Friday.  But this stubby red candle had the effect of sending ES off overbought and completing a bearish stochastic crossover.  And with the new Sunday overnight not seeming to be too interested in advancing, this chart looks negative for Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2098.42 to 2095.50.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Euro, daily

Dollar index: Whoa!  There was nothing wishy-washy about the dollar last Friday as it cratered a big 1.61% on a massive gap-down red marubozu for its worst loss since March 10th.  That sent the indicators oversold but the stochastic is still in full-on bearish mode and we've yet to touch the lower BB so I'm not sure the selling's done here.

Euro:  And of course the euro was the mirror image to the dollar, leaping out of a seven-day congestion zone just above its 200 day MA in spectacular fashion all the way back to 1.13480 in a single bound.  Indicators are now just overbought but the stochastic has yet to start curving around so  I can't really call a move lower here.  Just take a look at this chart.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans put in a very tall red hammer that successfully tested their 200 day MA.  But it was also a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  And with indicators remaining overbought and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover in full force, this chart looks more bearish than anything tonight.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       0      1       2           0       0.000     -49

     And the winner is...

Apparently, not much has changed tonight.  The contradictory chart signs just continue as the market still searches for a direction.  The fact that Auntie Janet will be speaking on Monday isn't helping any.  So all things considered, I might as well just call Monday uncertain.  The market still feels toppy to me, but Fed heads are a bus you never want to stand in front of.

YM Futures Trader

We went short last Wednesday at 17,740, watched the trade move against us on Thursday but hung in there and were finally rewarded with a move down to 17,717 at which point I decided to get out while the getting was good with a 23 point profit.  While I feel there might very well be more profit in a short position at this point, I just didn't want to remain in the market over the weekend.