Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1410.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

[My apologies - for some reason, this post didn't get published on time but here it is anyway as completed around 1:45 AM Friday morning]

Recap

It was sure looking good for my call lower early on Thursday morning but then the market reversed and wobbled it way higher for the rest of the day to finish up 40 points.  It was an interesting move that we'll discuss in the Dow section below as we try to do better on Friday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Everyone knows you can't fight the Fed and you can't fight the tape either.  I've been thinking this market was going lower for days now.  Only it's not.  And today's close was important not just for being up but also for finally cracking the 13,050 resistance zone that had been stopping the Dow for a week now.  We also executed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level today.  I've noticed that whenever that happens, we seem to be good for a few more days of upside even thought he indicators are all still overbought.  And today's move kept us back inside the rising RTC.

The VIX:  At least I was right in not calling the VIX lower today, as it gained 0.73% in an unusual move up on a day when the market was also up.  Today's doji ended right on the right hand edge of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  It also caused a bearish stochastic crossover.  And while it rose today, the VIX remained entirely within yesterday's candle.  So I think now is the time to call the VIX lower for Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are up at 1:13 AM EST with ES higher by 0.07%.  This is a chart that just doesn't seem to want to fold and after back-to-back green candles, we're still getting more upside in the overnight.  So despite overbought indicators, I can't bring myself to call this chart lower.  Resistance remains in the 1418-1420 neighborhood but that still leaves a bit of room to run on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1406.58  to 1410.17.  We were above before, and remain above the new pivot so that's bullish.

Dollar index: I did get this one right too, writing "My guess is that we could see a move higher here soon."  The dollar delivered today with a 0.61% pop for a bullish RTC trigger and a completed bullish stochastic crossover with indicators just rising out of oversold.  So all systems are go for more upside here on Friday.  It's interesting though that the dollar, like the VIX, rose on a day when the market was up too.

Euro: And I got this much right last night too when I said "expect some more downside here on Thursday".  We got plenty, with the euro taking its biggest one day loss since November 2nd.  And there's more follow-through in the overnight, including a sudden 0.0015 cent loss in just 20 minutes as I write this.  Anyway, the recent two week uptrend is now clearly over and I think there's more downside to come on Friday.

Transportation: Like the VIX, the trans gave us a doji today dropping just 0.09% but remaining above the 200 day MA at 5110 after a successful intraday test of it.  And we also just formed a bullish stochastic crossover.  And finally, we traded entirely outside the descending RTC so that's a bullish trigger.  I'm fairly confident that the trans are going higher from here.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      5      5           0        .583     135
December   2      1      1           0        .667      34

     And the winner is...

The charts are in a funny state lately.  Take copper.  It's put in three consecutive days of red candles but it continues to move higher as each day gaps up over the previous one.  This is the sort of thing that vexes me no end.  And the TLT's looking toppy too.  I call this the rubber ducky market.  You try to push it underwater but it just keeps popping back up.  So with the Dow now having established support at the 200 DMA and broken resistance at 13,050, I think it's now going to take a poke at its upper BB at 13,173.  Therefore I'm going to go out on a limb again and call Friday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Ugh, OK, that's it, I've had enough.  I finally just had to throw in the towel on what was becoming a too-long running trade for an ugly 18.5 point loss.  Like I said, you can't fight the tape.

Portfolio stats:  the account now falls back to $188,750  after 73 trades (57 wins, 16 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we stand aside to regroup.

BOT    10    false    ES    DEC12 Futures     1414.50    USD    GLOBEX    00:43:09

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1406.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader remaining short at 1396.00.

Recap

I'm glad I called Wednesday uncertain because watching the market get jerked around as the day went on was an astonishing experience.  First we were down, then the Dow went on a rampage and we were up over 100 before finally fading into the close but still up 0.64% on the day.  Which way will the fiscal cliff jitters take us on Thursday.  Let's run the charts up the flag pole and see who salutes.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: I think the big thing about the Dow's 83 point move today is not the size of the gain but rather the fact that it once again failed to top the 13,050 area for the fourth time in five days.  But it's worth nothing that this move was enough to just barely bring us back into the rising RTC, thus canceling yesterday's bearish setup, and we reclaimed the 13K psychological support level, and we busted right back through the 200 day MA, now at 12,897.  So that's all bullish.

But then again one thing I'm just seeing now - it looks to me like the Dow is forming a descending broadening right triangle.  This pattern isn't seen too often, but I believe that what you generally get are three shots at the horizontal line and then a breakdown when confirmed by indicators.  And right now the indicators remain more overbought than oversold.  So unless the Dow can post some meaningful gains on Thursday, I'd be more expecting it to go lower by the end of the week.

The VIX:  I missed this one last night.  The VIX moved lower by 3.86% today.  This was enough to cause the indicators to peak, though they remain overbought and we remain well inside the rising RTC, so it's too early to call the VIX lower just yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are down at 1:48 AM EST with ES lower by 0.20%.  Today's move was a wide-ranging green spinning top complementing yesterday's doji.   But the upside move was just not quite enough to get us back into the rising RTC.  So with yesterday's doji as the bearish setup, today's gain was actually the bearish trigger, meaning there is a 95% chance the rising trend that began on 11/16 is over, Jack.  I consider the lack of further upside in the overnight thus far to support the bear case.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot barely nudges up from 1406.25 to 1406.58.  We broke under the old number this evening and remain below the new pivot though not by much.  Still that lends at least some support to the bear side.

Dollar index: The dollar's been bobbing around like a cork in a hurricane lately.  Today marked its third gap move in three days, something I noted as a possibility last night when I wrote "this could indicate a rise is on the way via a gap-filling impulse".  And today's 0.16% gain mostly filled yesterday's gap down, but with a red spinning top nearly identical to Tuesday's.  And we're still oversold.  So once again, this chart is just too tough to call.  I'll just note that today's move brought us out of the latest descending RTC for a bullish setup.  My guess is that we could see a move higher here soon.

Euro: The euro chart's a lot more clear.  Today the euro lost some ground with a bearish inside harami move that traded completely outside the rising RTC, so that's a bearish trigger.  And the overnight is confirming that as the euro continues lower, now at 1.3057.  Indicators remain quite overbought so it's logical to expect some more downside here on Thursday.  This lends support to my guess for a higher dollar.

Transportation: Today the trans posted a 0.91% jump that was enough to break through the 200 day MA at 5110 and cause the indicators to bottom well before getting to oversold.  This also gives us a bullish setup on an admittedly small (three day) rising RTC.  Keep in mind though resistance is nearby at 5145, just above today's close of 5120.  To me, that suggests a possible topping day for the trans on Thursday.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      5      5           0        .583     135
December   2      0      1           0       1.000      74

     And the winner is...

Despite today's nice little rally, I'm not seeing a trend.  If anything, the charts are looking fairly weak and this Thursday is historically bearish anyway.  I don't know, I'm just not feeling the love, so I'm going to go out on the limb and call Thursday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains, for the time being, at $198,000 after 72 trades (57 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we remain short at 1396.00.    I know, there's a fine line between patience and stubbornness, but I'm still not quite ready to give up on this trade.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1406.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader remaining short at 1396.00.

Recap

Well it looks like the bulls finally gave up the ghost today.  The Dow might have shed only 14 points but the important point is that they never even threatened the 13,050 level that had been such a bone of contention for the last three day.  But there are some interesting developments in the overnight so we'll take a close look at the charts to see what Wednesday may hold in store.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Yesterday's loss provided us with a bearish RTC setup and then today's smaller loss gave us the bearish trigger.  We have now officially exited the last rising RTC.  Coupled with a failure to recapture the 200 day MA today and indicators that continue to retreat off overbought, it's looking like there's more room to run lower for the Dow on Thursday.

The VIX:  I got my hat trick today, having correctly called the VIX higher for three consecutive days, as it gained another 2.88% today.  The VIS now has a bullish three white soldiers pattern going, and a new rising RTC.  However, it just entered overbought territory today and is now sitting just under its 200 day MA at 17.54.  That said, the VIX does not respect its 200 DMA as well as a lot of other charts.  But with no other resistance in sight and futures that are not yet overbought, I'm going to see if I can go for four and call the VIX at least a bit higher on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are actually up at 1:23 AM EST with ES higher by 0.30%.  I think this chart is the crux of the matter tonight.  Here we have an interesting situation.  Today's candle was a doji star sitting just under Monday's red candle.  It also ended perched precariously exactly on the right edge of the rising RTC, at 1405.50.  Call it a bearish setup.  But the gain in the overnight so far has brought us very close to getting back into the RTC.  This evening high at 1413.00 in fact just touched the RTC.  And the new candle is forming a bullish engulfing pattern.  But see my comments on the euro below for the hazards of relying too much on unfinished candles.  So this chart is far from clear.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot steps down from 1411.83 to 1406.25.  This evening's rise in ES combined with this drop in the pivot put us on the plus side right at midnight, a bullish sign.

Dollar index: For the second day in a row the dollar gapped down today, losing another 0.30% and riding a steeply falling lower BB.  It also remains inside a declining RTC.  I'm wanting to say this could indicate a rise is on the way via a gap-filling impulse, but this chart's really not clear enough to call for Wednesday.

Euro: Wednesday's euro action well illustrates the perils of working off a half-cooked candle.  What was looking like a spinning top last night ended up being  a green marubozu as the euro posted its fourth stright gain to remain solidly inside its rising RTC.  But after continuing higher most of the evening, it appears to have peaked at 1.3130 and is now moving lower.  That's not unexpected as 1.3130 marks resistance all the way back to September.  And the euro is now as overbought as it was the last two times it hit this level and also bumping along its upper BB as it was then.  My guess is that it won't have any more luck pushing higher this time so I'm expecting a move lower on Wednesday.

Transportation: I did get this one wrong on Tuesday.  The trans did not go lower, instead gaining 0.26% on a classic spinning top.  That's a reversal warning but not a great one.  And the indicators are still just under halfway from overbought to oversold.  And significantly, today's gain was entirely outside the last rising RTC and that's a bearish trigger.  So I think further declines in the trans are possible on Wednesday.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      5      5           0        .583     135
December   2      0      0           0       1.000      74

     And the winner is...

After poking around a bit, I think that this evening's rise in the futures is due to some wire stories that the Fed is expected to announce new bond buying next week as an antidote to fiscal cliff jitters.  Technically, the market is still looking bearish, though not nearly as much tonight as last night.  It's difficult to know how Mr. Market will react on Wednesday morning.  I've seen many cases where the futures were doing well around midnight, only to disintegrate into the open.  Indeed, the hourly ES chart seems to suggest that this move is over.

In addition, both copper and the currencies are not looking particularly strong as you might expect in an incipient rally.  So call me skeptical.  The futures are the only thing guiding higher right now.  Logic would dictate that I call Wednesday lower based on the charts.  Still, I can't shake the feeling that someone knows something I don't right now, so tonight I'm just flipping a coin.  And - oh my - it landed on its edge.  So that makes Wednesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains, for the time being, at $198,000 after 72 trades (57 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we remain short at 1396.00.   may live to regret hanging on this long, but let's see what Wednesday brings.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1411.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
• ES Fantasy Trader remaining short at 1396.00.

Recap

My call last night was "Monday lower if we break below the ES pivot at 1414.58 by mid-morning."  And that's exactly what happened.  ES gave up the pivot at 10:50 AM and that was that.  Don't be fooled by the vain fake-out break-out attempt at 11:50 AM.  The volume put the tell on that and by 12:40 PM it was all over with the Dow finishing the day down 60 points.  Now let's look at the charts to see if we've got any pin action for Tuesday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Last night I commented that the Dow seemed to be running out of gas.  Today the tank ran dry and we lost 0.46% as resistance around the 13,050 level proved too tough to crack.  And for collateral damage, we fell out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup, dropped the 13K psychological support level and crashed right through the 200 day MA at 12,996 for the second time in six days.  That's three strikes, yer out.  And the indicators are still all overbought, though they now appear to have topped (which in itself is bearish).  This chart's not looking good.

The VIX:  Last night I called for "higher again on Monday" so now I'm two for two as we gained 4.85% here today.  Today's tall green marubozu suggests nothing but higher still and there's no resistance til the 200 day MA at 17.55.  Also, the indicators are rising but not yet overbought so I'm going to go for the hat trick and call for higher again on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are down at 1: 04 AM EST with ES lower by 0.23%.  Like the Dow, ES was unable to break a three day resistance line, here at 1420.  The bulls appear to be exhausted form the effort and we're finally seeing the pullback I've been expecting for a couple of days now.  The overnight declines are just enough to bring us to the edge of the rising RTC for a bearish setup but I'll note that this one has a fairly low Pearson's coefficient of just 0.889, so we might already have exited the trend.  With declining indicators it sure looks like we're headed lower on Tuesday here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1414.58 to 1411.83.  With ES wandering lower in the overnight we remain a good eight points under the new pivot so that's a bearish sign.

Dollar index: On Monday the dollar gapped down 0.36% and landed on its lower BB with a bullish morning star.  With oversold indicators I now believe that we have a chance for a dollar rebound on Tuesday but this sort of move requires confirmation.

Euro: In some impressive divergence, the euro on Monday posted a big gain closing at 1.3059 while our major averages all moved lower.The E is taking a breather in the overnight with the new candle forming as a spinning top suggesting we could see a move lower on Tuesday.  That would mesh with my ideas for the dollar.

Transportation: And I got this one right too last night when I said "I'm looking for lower trans again on Monday" as the trans posted their biggest loss since November 14th falling 1.13%.  And like the Dow, this was enough to drop us out of a rising RTC for a bearish setup and right through the 200 day MA.  The bearish stochastic crossover is confirmed, the indicators remain overbought but have peaked, so all i all this chart's looking lower again..

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.  Here's the updated cumulative list for this year (it's getting pretty long):

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl SPX  Accuracy

  1  1/3        46         21        +     1258   1/1

  2  1/9        56         37        +     1278   2/2

  3  1/17       41         33        +     1289   3/3

  4  1/23       46         32        +     1315   4/4

  5  1/30       48         31        +     1316   5/5

  6  2/6        56         30        +     1345   6/6

  7  2/13       48         31        +     1343   7/7

  8  2/21       44         32        +     1361   8/8

  9  2/27       48         24        +     1366   9/9

 10  3/5        43         26        +     1370  10/10

 11  3/12       46         32        +     1371  11/11

 12  3/19       46         29        +     1404  11/12

 13  3/26       39         29        +     1397  11/13

 14  4/2        42         21        +     1408  11/14

 15  4/9        25         46        -     1398  12/15

 16  4/16       26         48        -     1370  13/16
 17  4/23       30         48        -     1379  14/17

 18  4/30       44         32        +     1403  14/18

 19  5/7        23         50        -     1350  15/19

 20  5/14       32         44        -     1353  16/20

 21  5/21       30         52        -     1295  16/21

 22  5/29       35         42        -     1318  16/22

 23  6/4        32         48        -     1278  16/23

 24  6/11       28         40        -     1326  16/24

 25  6/18       39         26        -     1343  16/25

 26  6/25       38         46        -     1335  16/26

 27  7/2        41         40        -     1362  16/27

 28  7/9        42         38        -     1355  16/28

 29  7/16       44         32        -     1357  16/29

 30  7/23       33         42        -     1363  16/30

 31  7/30       43         22        +     1386  17/31

 32  8/6        52         28        +     1391  18/32

 33  8/13       43         21        +     1406  19/33

 34  8/20       46         31        +     1418  20/34

 35  8/27       39         29        +     1411  21/35

 36  9/4        31         38        +     1407  22/36

 37  9/10       54         29        +     1438  23/37

 38  9/17       63         22        +     1466  23/38

 39  9/24       52         30        +     1460  23/39

 40  10/1       39         39        -     1441  24/40

 41  10/8       52         34        +     1461  24/41

 42  10/15      41         32        -     1429  25/42

 43  10/22      38         41        -     1433  26/43

 44  10/29      36         43        -     1412  27/44

 45  11/5       44         33        -     1414  27/45

 46  11/12      38         46        -     1380 

 47  11/19      52         34        +     1360

 48  11/26      48         26        +     1409

 49  12/3       57         21        N     1416 

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that my bearish call on 11/5 was just barely wrong, the S&P now being two points higher than then. I'm using the column "Accuracy" to track my calls.  So now with just three weeks to go in 2012, I'm 27 for 45 or 60%.

The interesting thing this week is that we set a YTD record for bullish sentiment: 57%, while bearish sentiment tied the record low at 21%.  Perhaps people are getting caught up in the Santa Claus ho-ho-ho seasonality.  I sure can't understand it.  Personally I voted Neutral, for the first time ever, mainly because 30 days from now will be the first day in 2013 and to my mind, whether we';re up or down depends entirely on whether or not we see a fiscal cliff resolution by then.  And right now that's pretty much up in the air.  With no way to predict that, I can't really vote either plus or minus.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      5      5           0        .583     135
December   1      0      0           0       1.000      60

     And the winner is...

Last night I was seeing a few storm clouds on the horizon.  Tonight they appear to be gathering as most of the charts ar elooking bearish.  And I'll note that the wonderful Rob Hanna is suggesting an edge to the downside now.  So I'd say we could get some further declines tomorrow and I'm calling Tuesday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains, for the time being, at $198,000 after 72 trades (57 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we remain short at 1396.00.  This trade is running a bit longer than most but I believe that patience will eventually prevail.

Monday lower if pivot broken

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower if ES pivot broken, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1414.58.  Breaking below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader remaining short at 1396.00.

Recap

I just barely missed my call for a lower close last Friday with both the Dow and SPX eking out the tiniest of gains and the Nasdaq actually finishing lower.  Call the major averages flat on the day.  Now with December underway, it's time once again to ponder whether Santa Claus will make an appearance for his annual rally, or if Bad Santa will stagger in, fall down and pass out.  On Dow, on VIXen!

The technicals (daily)

The Dow:On Friday the Dow put in a perfect doji star whose lower shadow touched the 200 day MA and whose upper shadow failed to exceed the high of the day before.  With indicators remaining oversold for five days running, this doji  is the clearest indication of a possible reversal we've seen yet.  However, it requires confirmation, so I'm not calling this chart lower just yet.

The VIX:  And another divergence for the VIX which gained 5.38% on a day when the majors were flat.  So I was right when I wrote 'I'm going to stick to my guns and call for a higher VIX on Friday.".  And with no reversal signs to be found on this chart, I'm going to guess we go higher again on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are up at 1:14 AM EST with ES higher by 0.12%.  ES has been stopped for two days now by resistance around 1420 and the same thing is happening in the overnight so far.  The indicators meanwhile are maxed out at overbought and have lost their predictive power.  That leaves just the chart which right now is stuck between the 1420 barrier and whatever unseen force is preventing it from falling.  I have to say though that I don't see any real negatives in this candlestick pattern.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot bumps up from 1412.92 to 1414.58.  Although ES is fading a bit, it remains above the new pivot and in fact just bounced off a close encounter with it.  So that's actually a bullish sign.  But this number absolutely bears watching on Monday.

Dollar index: On Friday the dollar dropped 0.06% but did it on a fat spinning top in dark cloud cover position.   However, having just come off its lower BB and remaining quite oversold, I believe the dollar has more upside potential than downside risk here.

Euro: Meanwhile, the euro's been on fire and playing tag with its upper BB for the third day in a row, having now crossed the 1.3000 resistance level.  And it's continuing higher in the overnight, up 0.24% so far, though drifting lower since 11 PM.  Even so, there's really no indication of a move lower here for Monday.

Transportation: As the VIX provided some negative divergence Friday, the trans followed suit, dropping 0.51% to close just above their 200 day MA at 5112.  Here we have indicators that have peaked at overbought and a bearish stochastic crossover.  I'm looking for lower trans again on Monday.  If that happens, it would be bad for stocks because the last four times the daily trans have crossed under the 200 DMA, they've then continued lower.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632  
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 
October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      6      6           0        .538       131

     And the winner is...

I'll note that Monday is the first trading day of a month and we're now entering a period of favorable seasonality for the market.  However, I am somewhat concerned by the action of the VIX and the trans, and the repeated failure of ES to make any headway past 1420.

But until the fiscal cliff gets solved the market is totally at the whim of every politician with an opinion who decides to go on TV and begin braying loudly to advance his/her own agenda.

Still, all other things being equal, I'm going to go waaay out on a limb tonight and call Monday lower if we break below the ES pivot at 1414.58 by mid-morning.  If not, I think we might see some small gains on the day.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains, for the time being, at $198,000 after 72 trades (57 wins, 15 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we remain short at 1396.00.  The heat's still on, but I've got plenty of A/C to keep cool.