Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Friday lower, high confidence
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- Next week bias uncertain, oversold rally is overdue..
- Monthly outlook: bias down, on politics.
- ES Fantasy Trader stuck long..
The Night Owl wishes all my readers a happy Thanksgiving. And despite all the terrible things happening today in our markets, our country and around the world, we still have a lot to be thankful for in America.
Tonight is going to be an abbreviated holiday edition of the Night Owl Trader mostly because everyone is no doubt either watching TV and digesting turkey, or out battling the Black Friday mobs. For me, I'm just going to take it easy tomorrow.
Although the market will be open for half a day, there will be little to learn from the action regardless of which way it goes. All the big players are taking the day off and I firmly believe we should emulate them.
Tuesday night we were right at a support level but I called Wednesday lower anyway and that's unfortunately what came about with the Dow diving another 236 points. My screens were literally awash in red. It was real ugly.
The Dow: Closed for Thanksgiving. That's one way to get a day where the Dow doesn't go down - we can be thankful for that. Will this one day timeout give the bulls a chance to regroup and drive the market up in Friday's short session as is historically the case? Let's check the futures for some clues.
Market index futures: Well stocks were closed but the futures soldiered on today, putting in a small doji in the abbreviated Thanksgiving session. Any hope that might signal a reversal though was dashed when trading resumed this evening and ES promptly resumed its march lower. This time, apparently Germany was the culprit. Um, how many countries are there in Europe? I don't think we're going to see an end to this until they're all had a whack at the stock market.
Anyway, all signs now point to continued lower on Friday. ES, now at 1153.50 at 1:15 AM EDT has no support til 1122. The indicators are all lying broken on the floor. RSI has now hit zero for the second day in a row after 10 straight down days. And there are still no reversal signs in the candles. We remain firmly entranced in the descending RTC. I'm saying we're going lower tomorrow but I'm not even going to bother with it. I need a break.