Special Weekend Edition

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday slightly lower, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1316.00.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader remains short.

Recap

Well for once it wasn't Europe that tanked our markets.  On Friday the enemy was us, in the form of some truly ugly jobs numbers that were bad enough to send the markets down big time.  The Dow's awful 2.22% loss was enough to drive it negative for the year so far and handed me my worst day of the year too - and that's despite being (partially) hedged.  Anyway, today's action caused some dramatic changes on the charts that are well worth aq look-see. In fact, these charts are so unusual, I just couldn't wait til Sunday night to trot them out, so here's an early preview of the Night Owl.  Be sure to check back again Sunday night for our usual late-nite market forecast.

And speaking of the weird, here's a very strange story from Friday about how the obsolete Greek drachma has somehow mysteriously reappeared on Bloomberg terminals, here.  According to Bloomberg, it's an "internal test".  I guess just in case it might happen to be needed again at some point.  In the future.  Hypothetically, of course.  Nudge nudge, wink wink, know what I mean?  Can you say "Grexit"?

The technicals

Dow daily

The Dow: All hail the Mighty Megaphone which spoke loud and clear on Friday!  I first mentioned this unusual pattern on Wednesday night when I said "this is quite a bearish pattern.".  And take a look at how it turned out.  Bearish indeed!  I find this pattern fascinating.  It reminds me of the infamous 1940 Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse, where oscillations induced by external forces became self-reinforcing and amplified until eventually the entire system collapsed.  This is just what we witnessed happening in the Dow for the past six sessions until it fell down in a heap on Friday.

Unfortunately, the collapse of the megaphone isn't necessarily an all-clear, because it also blasted right through the dreaded 200 day MA, and that's never a good thing.  The only positive signs are that we never tested support at 12K, we hit the lower BB, and the indicators reached oversold levels.  But those are pretty weak reversal signs.

VIX daily

The VIX:  The VIX chart is interesting because it shows a divergence form the Dow.  While the Dow was nothing but a long red candle, the VIX on Friday gave us a classic hanging man.  And not just that but it also nudged above its upper BB.  And as I always say, the VIX rarely spends more than a day or two above its upper BB before retreating.  Notice also from this chart how well the RTC method works.  On Wednesday, the VIX popped out of its descending RTC - bullish setup.  On Thursday it traded entirely outside - bullish trigger.  And on Friday, pop goes the weasel - payoff.

Market index futures: The futures are of course closed over the weekend, so check back Sunday night for this critical section.

ES daily pivot: ES ended the week with a pivot at 1308.50.  Check back Sunday night for my usual pivot analysis.

$USDUPX daily

Dollar index: So many interesting charts today!  Check out this one of the dollar, in the form of the $USDUPX.  The dollar, as you can plainly see has been on an almost non-stop ride higher since the first of May.  But look what happened on Friday.  On a day where stocks got pounded, the dollar moved lower.  And in fact it gave us a good dark cloud cover, one of the strongest bearish patterns there is.  It also closed outside the long rising RTC - a bearish setup.  The dollar now appears poised to move lower (finally).  And despite the recent decoupling of the dollar/stock correlation I've noted a few times here already, I think this one is going to hold.  This chart looks to me like the dollar has more downside coming, and that should be good for stocks.

I note also a corresponding bullish pattern to the euro, which after dipping into the 1.22's on Friday, finally caught a bounce rallying hard to 1.2413.

Transportation: The major charts were ugly enough on Friday, but they looked positively like Miss America compared to the trans which dropped an impressive 3.21% on a long solid red candle.  And the indicators still aren't close to being oversold.  This chart is just ugh and uglier.  If you believe the trans are a market predictor, we're in for some more bad times this coming week.

TLT, daily

To the moon, Alice!

TLT: On the other hand, today we have a special guest appearance by the TLT, the iShares 20+ year bond ETF.  Bonds and stocks generally move in inverse directions.  When people want stocks, they don't want bonds.  And when they want bonds, they don't want stocks.  And boy do they want bonds right now.  Just look at the price of the TLT since the beginning of May.  Pow, zoom, to the moon, Alice!  This rocket ship has gone exponential.  And not just exponential - we're talking gap-up exponential on increasing moves and increasing volume.

And what always happens when a chart goes exponential?  That's right, class, it comes right back down.  If you're looking for a sign of an end to the current market downtrend, I can't find a better one than this.  Maybe not Monday, but Real Soon Now.


Hi-Lo: The $RHSPX, the SPX Hi-Lo Ratio index, hit 8.57 on Friday, a level not seen since last November.  Recall that last November was as ugly as the May we just ended.  And it was followed by a big move up in December.  When the Hi-Lo gets this overextended, it's usually a good reversal indicator.  (It's not quite as good when it hits high levels, as it can remain pegged at 100 for a while before an uptrend ends).

History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac, Monday is historically fairly bullish.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting average
April   7      9      2                       .438
May    10      7      3           2           .632
June    1      0      0           0          1.000

     And the winner is...

There's no call until Sunday night when I can see what the futures are doing.  From what I can see at this point on Saturday evening though, I'd say Emperor Nerobama and his PPT had better pull a whole bunch of rabbits out of their hats between now and Monday morning to put an end to this ongoing destruction of wealth.  And there do seem to be signals in the charts that this is exactly what the markets are expecting.  Failing that though, look out below.

Be sure to check back Sunday night for the exciting conclusion to Market Mania 2012!

ES Fantasy Trader

On Friday we took a nice 14.75 point profit on Thursday night's short.  I'll admit the exit was a bit premature, but I wasn't really expecting such a vicious downturn.  In any case, no one ever lost money by leaving money on the table.

Portfolio stats: the account now rises to $134,000 after 40 trades (31 wins, 9 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1.

Reminder - you can follow the entries and exits for these trades live on Twitter @NightOwlTrader.

BOT    10    ES    false    JUN12 Futures     1288.00    USD    GLOBEX    09:27:23
SLD    10    ES    false    JUN12 Futures     1302.75    USD    GLOBEX    00:54:34
 

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Friday likely lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower, medium confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1308.50. Holding under is bearish..
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias down.
• ES Fantasy Trader goes short at 1302.75.

Recap

It was close for a while as the Dow spent much of the day climbing back from early losses, but a sharp sell-off in the closing 20 minutes saved my call for a lower close.  With a disappointing May now in the books, let's see how June might start off.

The technicals

The Dow: Today's dip and recovery gave us a tall spinning top that ended perched right on the lower arm of the megaphone I wrote about last night.  Add in today's high volume and that is a bearish sign.  Also, the bearish stochastic crossover is complete and the indicators continue to move down from overbought.  And the 200 day MA remains in striking distance at 12,251.

The VIX:  Like the Dow, the VIX gave us a spinning top today but actually declined 0.33%.  Still, that's a confirmation of the RTC exit and constitutes a bullish trigger.  Absent any overbought indicators, there's no reason the VIX can't run higher on Friday.  And the VIX actually tested its 200 day MA at 25.19 intraday before retreating to close at 24.06.

Market index futures: Tonight, once again all three futures are trading lower with ES down 0.48% at 1:12 AM EDT.  The daily ES chart mirrors the Dow, with a doji, a bearish RTC trigger, and falling indicators all guiding the way lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot falls from 1316.92 to 1308.50.  Just like last night, we were below the old number and with ES continuing down, we're under the new number, again a negative sign.

Dollar index: The dollar continued its seemingly unstoppable march higher today in an RTC that has now gone the entire month of May.  And today's close at 57.64 just cracked the 200 week MA at 57.63.  Meanwhile the euro continued its descant, closing at 1.2364.  Unless there is some real positive news from Europe soon, we are definitely headed for 1.20.

Transportation: Today the trans gave us a 0.9% gain.  They've been switching direction every day for the last five sessions.  But the important point here is that despite today's gain, the trade was entirely outside the rising RTC, so that's a bearish trigger.


History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac, Friday is historically very bullish.

Performance:

Here are my performance stats for the first five months of 2012.  The first two columns are for my trading account.  The next, "ESFT", is the ES Fantasy Trader.  Following that I've now added the results for my IRA.  The last is the Dow, my reference benchmark that I try to match or beat.

 Date    Trading, Month  Tr. YTD  ESFT YTD   IRA YTD   Dow YTD

1/31/12       7.41%        7.41%   -0.50%     6.18%     3.41%

2/29/12       3.67%       11.35%    7.88%     9.02%     6.02%

3/31/12       1.76%       13.31%   29.88%    10.05%     8.16%
4/30/12       2.35%       15.97%   41.75%    10.90%     8.17%

5/31/12      -1.92%       14.23%   26.63%     4.91%     1.45%

While it is disappointing to have my first losing month of the year, at least the damage was limited and I'm still outperforming the Dow.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting average
April   7      9      2                       .438
May    10      7      3           2           .632

     And the winner is...

With crummy PMI numbers from the Chicoms and charts that if anything look even worse than last night, I'm afraid I have to be bearish once again and call for a lower close Friday.  The only thing that might save the day is that it's the first of a new month and that's historically quite bullish.  But it remains to be seen if history can trump the one-two combo of the technicals and the Europeans.

ES Fantasy Trader

Despite some misgivings last night, today's short trade worked out well enough and we covered for a 6.25 point profit.

Portfolio stats: the account now rises to $126,625 after 39 trades (30 wins, 9 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1. Tonight we're going short once again, at 1302.75.

Reminder - you can follow the entries and exits for these trades live on Twitter @NightOwlTrader.

BOT    10    ES    false    JUN12 Futures     1304.25    USD    GLOBEX  11:37:00

SLD    10    ES    false    JUN12 Futures     1310.50    USD    GLOBEX  02:16:49    

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Thursday lower unless pivot passed

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower if pivot not passed, else higher.
  
• ES pivot 1316.92. Holding under is bearish..
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias down.
• ES Fantasy Trader goes short at 1310.50.

Recap

I had this sneaking suspicion that yesterday's rally was fake, and that suspicion was confirmed today in the form of a nasty 161 point dive in the Dow in a broad-based decline where losers outnumbered winners five to one.  Since Europe seems to be running the show now it may seem like just an academic exercise to run the charts, but we might as well - you never know what you might find...

The technicals

Dow daily

The Dow: There's something strange going on here.  For six days now the Dow has been making higher highs and lower lows.  This is a quite unusual pattern that goes by several names such as the inverted symmetrical triangle, broadening triangle, or the name I like - megaphone top, because, well it looks like a megaphone.  Check it out.  This one is striking in its symmetry and indicates not just growing indecision but growing instability in the market.  I'm calling this a top because it follows the  bottom put in on the 18th and the following big up day.  In any event, this is quite a bearish pattern.  And the candlesticks remind me of a three outside down pattern which is also bearish.  And to add to the gloom, the indicators all topped yesterday and the stochastic is a hair away from making a bearish crossover.

The only bright spot here is that the Dow has some good support at 12,370, just 50 points below today's close.  If we break that, then the 200 day MA at 12,246 is back in play, then the 12K round support level.  Overall, I'm really not liking this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Last night I mentioned the possibility of a higher VIX by the end of the week and it delivered in a big way today with a whopping 14.8% pop right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  And that also caused a bullish stochastic crossover and caused all the other indicators to hook up from oversold levels.  This all suggests even more upside to come.  With no resistance until 25 (and then the 200 day MA at 25.22), the VIX certainly still has some room to run.

Market index futures: So with all the gloomy charts, why are all three futures in the green at 1:54 AM EDT?  ES is leading the way, up a non-trivial 0.23% in a move that began, oddly enough on the stroke of midnight.  There's certainly no cause for joy in the daily ES chart.  A big red candle that stopped right on the edge of the rising RTC , indicators that have now clearly topped at overbought, and a stochastic that made a bearish crossover today.  In fact, this action is causing the new candle to look like a hammer.  With no immediately obvious news from you-know-where, all that comes to mind is "dead cat bounce".

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot takes a big step down from 1328.42 to 1316.92.  ES was below before, and now it's still below, just not quite as much.  But it's still a negative sign.

Dollar index: The dollar is like a broken record here, advancing yet again for the sixth straight day, this time up 0.61% to remain solidly in its rising RTC on a solid green candle.  I had to move out to the weekly chart to find any resistance - it's at 58 in the first week of January this year.  Of bigger interest is that today the USDUPX closed exactly on its 200 week MA: 57.61.  Thursday is make or break day for the dollar.  Pushing higher again will break above the MA and provide even more steam to go still higher.

How likely is that?  Well just look at the poor euro.  I've been saying here for several days now that the euro is trudging downstairs to pay a visit to 1.20.  It dropped again today to 1.2369 at the close, before recovering slightly in the overnight.  At the current rate of descent, the euro should hit 1.20 somewhere around 6/11 to 6/18.  This isn't good for stocks either.

Transportation: Adding to the feeling of impending doom, today the trans got clobbered.  Where the Dow lost 1.28%, the trans were down 2.12%.  Worse, this took them out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  And the indicators here have all peaked at overbought levels.  And the stochastic just formed a bearish crossover today.  That's four strikes - you're really out.  This isn't pretty at all.


History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac, Thursday is historically just slightly bearish.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional
April   7      9      2
May    10      7      3           1
     And the winner is...

Absolutely everything is just screaming "lower" right now - except the futures which continue to rise as I write this.  Modulo that, the call for Thursday would be easy - down.  But it is never wise to ignore the overnight movement of ES.  I always assume someone knows something I don't (generally an easy assumption to make).  And right now, ES is in a clear uptrend that will intersect the pivot at 3:25 AM.  It could be a DCB, or it could be another fake-out.  No way to tell right now.  So here's my call: if ES hits the pivot Thursday morning and bounces off, we'll close lower.  If it breaks through decisively (by which I mean goes above and stays there), we'll close higher.

2:15 AM Update:  Here's the break (finally)  in that ES uptrend.  This really increases the odds of a lower close Thursday.

ES Fantasy Trader

Today's short trade worked out nicely and we took a 12 point profit just before lunch - yum!

Portfolio stats: the account now rises to $123,500 after 38 trades (29 wins, 9 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1. Tonight we're going short again, with some misgivings, at 1310.50.

Reminder - you can follow the entries and exits for these trades live on Twitter @NightOwlTrader.

BOT    10    ES    false    JUN12 Futures     1315.00    USD    GLOBEX    11:35:23   

SLD    10    ES    false    JUN12 Futures     1327.00    USD    GLOBEX    00:50:14   


CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower, low confidence
  
• ES pivot 1328.42.  Holding under is bearish..
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias down.
• ES Fantasy Trader goes short at 1327.00.

Recap

Today, traders refreshed from a three-day weekend that gave them an opportunity to mull over some ostensibly good news out of Greece, drove the Dow up 126 points.  But this leaves us with a whole silverware drawer-ful of forks in the road, as Europe continues to perk along and the charts deliver mixed messages.  I'm going to see if I can't figure something out here...

The technicals

The Dow: Remember what I said last night?  "We're going to need a close above 12,610, or 155 points from here, to avoid a bearish trigger.".  Well today's high was 12,611.61.  Unfortunately, the close was 12,581.  Close, but as they say, no cigar.  Today's close at 12,580 did break us out of that four day consolidation, but whether this move has legs remains to be seen.

The VIX:  The VIX dropped another 3.35% Tuesday to remain within its descending RTC.  However, the indicators are now showing oversold.  This isn't an immediate reversal indicator, but it does point to an increased likelihood of a higher VIX by the end of the week.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are down with ES leading the way lower by 0.51% at 1:08 AM EDT.  Tuesday's gains took us actually off the left edge of the rising RTC.  This type of action is often followed by a move lower, and so far it seems like that's what's happening.  ES is also overbought now and although we're still in a rising RTC, a one day move lower is not out of the question.  We saw something similar last Thursday (higher) and Friday (lower).

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot jumps from 1318.92 to 1328.42.  This move, combined with a declining ES in the overnight means we're now below the pivot, though not by much.  Nevertheless, it's a bearish sign.

Dollar index: And remember what I said about this last night?  "it seems that we might be starting to see some decoupling between stocks and the dollar"  Usually, a higher dollar means lower stocks.  But once again, today we saw the dollar gain 0.07% while all the major averages were up too.  At the same time, today's close left us right on the edge of the month-long rising RTC and the pace of the advance has definitely slowed over the past three days.

Still too soon to call this a top, particularly while the euro continues its march down to 1.20, but I'm guessing we might see at least a small retreat in the dollar on Wednesday.  Now if the dollar is becoming positively correlated with stocks, does this mean that a lower dollar will mean lower stocks?  Ya got me, but I will be watching this one closely.

Transportation: The trans turned in an impressive performance today rising 1.16% and breaking decisively above their resistance at 5110.  However, this move also just brought them into overbought territory.  The last few times this has happened, the break has come fairly quickly - none of this spending weeks at a time overbought before moving lower.  Last night I called for lower trans this week (though I didn't say it would be Tuesday).  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.


History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac, Wednesday is historically quite bullish.

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.  Here's the updated cumulative list for this year:

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl SPX  Accuracy

  1  1/3        46         21        +     1258   1/1

  2  1/9        56         37        +     1278   2/2

  3  1/17       41         33        +     1289   3/3

  4  1/23       46         32        +     1315   4/4

  5  1/30       48         31        +     1316   5/5

  6  2/6        56         30        +     1345   6/6

  7  2/13       48         31        +     1343   7/7

  8  2/21       44         32        +     1361   8/8

  9  2/27       48         24        +     1366   9/9

 10  3/5        43         26        +     1370  10/10

 11  3/12       46         32        +     1371  11/11

 12  3/19       46         29        +     1404  11/12

 13  3/26       39         29        +     1397  11/13

 14  4/2        42         21        +     1408  11/14

 15  4/9        25         46        -     1398  12/15

 16  4/16       26         48        -     1370  13/16
 17  4/23       30         48        -     1379  14/17

 18  4/30       44         32        +     1403  14/18

 19  5/7        23         50        -     1350

 20  5/14       32         44        -     1353

 21  5/21       30         52        -     1295

 22  5/29       35         42        -     1318

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that my bullish call on 4/30 was wrong, the S&P now being lower than then.  I'm using the column "Accuracy" to track my calls.  So now I'm 14 for 18.  And of course that means that since I voted with the majority back then, the poll as a whole was also wrong that week.  So with one third of the year gone the poll's accuracy drops to 78% YTD. Still pretty good.

This week I voted bearish again, keeping me in step with the majority although bearish sentiment declined 10 points since a week ago.  Interestingly, bullish sentiment advanced only half that much, indicating more people now sitting on the sidelines.  This results in the smallest bearish spread of the year - just 7 points.  Still, I'm seeing lower to come on the monthly SPX chart.  Even with recent gains, it si just forming a bearish crossover.and its indicators have now peaked at overbought.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional
April   7      9      2
May     9      7      3           1
     And the winner is...

I think Tuesday's big move up was largely the result of European news over the long weekend.  In the absence of any further positive developments today, I don't see the catalyst that will drive us higher on Wednesday.  In fact, there's a bit of bad news tonight concerning the ECB and Spanish banks.  With many charts now in overbought territory, I don't think it will take much to send us lower, so I'm going to go out on the limb and call for a lower close Wednesday.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account now remains at $117,500 after 37 trades (28 wins, 9 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1. Tonight we're going short at 1327.00.

Reminder - you can follow the entries and exits for these trades live on Twitter @NightOwlTrader.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher, medium confidence
  
• ES pivot 1323.25.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias down.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

It was a strange end to a strange week with the Dow tumbling 75 points on a pre-holiday weekend Friday over more worries about Greece - or was it Spain.  With renewed fears about Europe in what is becoming an annual tradition, are some halfway decent US economic indicators enough to move this market higher?  The charts may hold the answer so let's take a peek to see what's up - and down

The technicals

The Dow: After a big gain last Monday, the Dow spent the rest of the week in a state of confused (and confusing) consolidation.  Friday's failure to build on Thursday's gains and move above the 12,500 level is somewhat concerning.  It also cut short the trip the indicators had started to make up from oversold levels.  And more bad news - Friday traded outside the new rising RTC, a bearish setup.  We're going to need a close above 12,610, or 155 points from here, to avoid a bearish trigger.  It's certainly doable, but I don't think it's likely.

The VIX:  The VIX  closed up a percent on Friday and respected its support at 22, though on a red candle.  I'm more concerned about the indicators that appear to be bottoming before even reaching oversold levels.  The stochastic in particular looks to be gearing up for a bullish crossover, either Monday or Tuesday, and a rising VIX is bad for stocks.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are up significantly, with ES trading higher by 0.82% at 1:14 AM EDT, likely on - don't laugh - news of Greek political polls.  Um, okey dokey - whatever.  The good news is that this keeps us inside the rising RTC from 5/21 with a decent-looking green candle.  The bad news is that the idicators just entered overbought territory.  That doesn't mean an immediate drop, but bears watching.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1318.92 to 1323.25.  After bouncing off the old pivot at 8 PM Monday evening (a good sign), ES got on an uptrend that continues as I write and is good enough to keep us above the new pivot - another good sign.

Dollar index: Meanwhile, the dollar continued its march higher on Friday climbing right back into its month-long rising RTC with a 0.04% gain in the form of a doji.  But we've seen four such reversal warnings in the current trend and none of them have played out.  But the dollar has been overbought for 15 straight sessions now.  I searched back though all the daily data eSignal provides for $USDUPX and was unable to find any streak longer than this, back to 2007.

But none of this amounts to a hill of beans because the dollar's not coming down until the euro stops going down.  And I don't think that's going to happen until it hits 1.20, its June 2010 support.  I'm sure we're going to see that level within two months.  In the meantime, the euro's daily lower BB is at 1.2392 and we're at 1.2537 right now, so there's even short-term room to run lower.  Bad for stocks?  Probably, although it seems that we might be starting to see some decoupling between stocks and the dollar.  This will bear close watching.

Transportation: The trans appear to have run into some strong resistance at 5110, established as support back on 5/14-16.  And although they remain in a rising RTC, the indicators are getting tired after coming off oversold on 5/21.  Add in Friday's 0.56% decline and I'm not feeling the love from this chart.  I'd say some lower trans are in the offing this coming week.


History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac, Tuesday is historically slightly bullish.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional
April   7      9      2
May     8      7      3           1
     And the winner is...

I'm starting to see some warning lights flashing on the charts, but they're mostly for later this week.  I think the positive action in the overnight futures plus the lack on an immediate confirmed downtrend, plus some recent positive news on stimulus for the Chinese economy will be enough to merit a higher close Tuesday.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account now falls to at $117,500 after 37 trades (28 wins, 9 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1.  Tonight we are, regrettably, standing aside.  I wish I had gone long earlier this evening and I'm afraid I've missed most of this particular bus.  Oh well - there'll always be another bus along soon.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel

Memorial Day

Happy Memorial Day

 

Today is Memorial Day, the day we honor all the brave men and women, past and present, who have selflessly given of themselves in service to their country.  To all these gallent heroes who help defend our freedom, we take a day off from our charts and numbers, we thank you and we salute you.

 "The price of freedom is eternal vigilance."

President Thomas Jefferson