Friday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday - no call.
• ES pivot 2082.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

So after an entire day of trading the Dow finished Thursday up all of 5.74 points, after an equally slow Wednesday.  Plenty of intraday action but for swing trading, not so much.  And to top it all off, on Thursday that annoying thing called Real Life (TM) got in the way of the important stuff so I simply ran out of time and wasn't able to do my usual chart analyses.  Rather than winging it, I'm just going to call it another personal day.  So no charts tonight.  Hey, it happens sometimes.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2072.00 to 2082.25.  That puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August     6      1       0           2       0.889    509

     And the winner is...

Judging by the action recently, I don't think I'll be missing much on Friday.  We'll see what it brings but I may just take the day off.  Looks like the Dog Days of Summer are upon us.  So that's all she didn't even write.  See you again Sunday night!


Single Stock Trader

Looking toppy.  Definitely not a swing buy here.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2072.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday  bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well that was odd.  Apparently, after the obligatory mass dump right out the gate due to the latest Chinese cataclysm, just like on Tuesday, on Wednesday Mr. Market instead figured out he'd been had and then spent the rest of the day marching back to break-even.  The net result after all the strum und drang, was a loss for the Dow of all of 0.33 points.  Okey dokey.  So moving right along, let's turn our attention to Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Holy moly, on Wednesday the Dow put in the biggest dragonfly doji I've ever seen, one that broke well below the lower BB and also out the left side of the descending RTC.  Indicators remain just off oversold so candlestick-wise this has to be bullish.

The VIX: And on Wednesday the VIX gapped up at the open right above its 200 day MA.  It then motored higher only to give it all up in the end to finish with a 0.73% loss on a tall dark cloud cover and a bearish stochastic crossover  That looks continued bearish to me.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:54 AM EDT with ES up  0.20%.  Like the other charts, ES put in a dramatic dragonfly doji on Wednesday, puncturing both its lower BB and then its 200 day MA before bouncing back.  That left the indicators, not surprisingly somewhat confused.  But with a nice bump in the new overnight we're starting to see something of a morning star pattern so this chart is now looking bullish to me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2084.08 to 2072.00. That now leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish.

Dollar index:  Wow - on Wednesday the dollar took its biggest gap down since, uh well I don't know - I scrolled back a year and couldn't find anything near this big.  The resulting doji star sitting below the lower BB for a 1.07% loss is a good 2/3 of a bullish morning star.  And with indicators now oversold, I'd say the dollar goes higher on Thursday.

Euro:  Last night I hesitated calling the euro lower in the face of a star - and good thing too because the euro kept right on rallying Wednesday with a big gain to close at 1.1174, well above its upper BB.  That left the indicators highly overbought and the stochastic starting to curve around for a bearish crossover.  So far the overnight is confirming that with modest losses.  So with the BB hit I have to think the euro may be headed lower on Thursday.

Transportation:  And finally on Wednesday the trans put in a monster hammer.  It didn't quite hit the lower BB but it did form a clear bullish stochastic crossover.  With nothing else of note here, this chart now looks bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212 August     5      1       0           2       0.875    503

     And the winner is...

We got a number of extreme  reversal candles in the charts on Wednesday and the futures are guiding higher so I'm just going to call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Crazy stuff here.  After what looked like a slam-dunk bearish evening star on Tuesday, instead on Wednesday VZ went higher some more, on the mother of all bullish engulfing patterns.  I don't care.  The indicators are now overbought and this still isn't the entry pattern I'm looking for.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2084.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

You'd think "OMG, Chicom devaluation!  Auto-sell sell sell!"  But it's not that simple.  ES actually spent most of the wee hours Tuesday morning just noodling about its pivot.  Until about 7:15 it looked like there was a chance the damage had already been done with the decline right after the announcement Monday night.  But no, ES gave up the ghost at that point and the market closed lower.  That's what my  "conditional call" (TM) is all about.  When it works, it works well.

So let's wander on to Wednesday and see what Mr. Market will make of all this.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow gave up almost all of Monday's gains on a tall inside harami - admittedly not the best reversal candle.  But it was enough to short-circuit all the developing positive technicals from Monday and put the Dow right back into its descending RTC.  So this chart in one day turns right back to bearish.

The VIX:  You can basically forget all the technical forecasts I made last night as they were all torpedoed by the Chicoms.  Case in point, the VIX, which did not go down at all, vaulting up over 12% instead on a gap-up lopsided spinning top.  Interestingly, it did not surpass the peak hit all of two days ago when we had our last crisis du jour.  But it was enough to send the indicators almost overbought and amazingly even cause a bearish stochastic crossover.  So with this yawning gap now below us, I'd say the next move looks lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are significantly lower at 12:45 AM EDT with ES down 0.67%, apparently on more currency finegaling by the Chicoms.  On Tuesday ES also gave up most of Monday's gains on a wide dark cloud cover.  But with two essentially new-driven candles back-to-back, I'd take the current setup with a grain of salt.  I'm more interested in the overnight gains being posted here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2090.92 to 2084.08. But the sharp move lower in the overnight now leaves ES well below the new pivot so this indicator now looks quite bearish.

Dollar index:  And with the Chicom devaluation, of course the dollar rose, up 0.14% on a bullish piercing pattern.  But indicators are not yet oversold and the stochastic continues falling so this one requires confirmation before calling it higher on Wednesday.

Euro:  And as another consequence, it was one of those rare days when both the euro and dollar rose, the euro in this case touching its upper BB before retreating to close higher at 1.1035 on a long-legged spinning top.  But the new overnight isn't confirming it, moving higher still.  So despite now being overbought, I can't call the euro lower yet.

Transportation:  Interestingly, the trans relatively outperformed the Dow, down only half as much on Tuesday in a move that actually bent the stochastic around in anticipation of a bullish crossover.  It's a stubby spinning top though so at this point we need to wait a day and see where this chart sorts out.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August     4      1       0           2       0.857    503

     And the winner is...

There's really not much bullish about the charts tonight but the kicker is that it looks like deja vu all over again as the Chicoms once again tinker with their currency.  And the drop in the futures is even bigger tonight than last.  And since we all know how that one turned out I'm just going to go ahead and call Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

On a mostly down day, VZ was one of few winners on the Dow, putting in a gap-up bearish gravestone doji that hit its upper BB.  Now that's definitely not the buy setup I'm looking for, so we just continue waiting here.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES stays above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2090.92.  Breaking  above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Yup - I figured Monday was looking higher last night and the technicals did not disappoint with a nice 242 point pop for the Dow.  I'm the first to admit when I'm wrong so I might aw well take credit when I'm right.  But that was then and this is now.  And tomorrow is Tuesday.  So let's see what the charts predict after this interesting day.

The technicals

The Dow: On Monday the Dow had its best day since May with a jolly green 1.39%  marubozu that blew it right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup, sent the indicators starting higher off oversold, and formed a sharp bullish stochastic crossover.  Technically, this looks nothing but bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I noted that the VIX was getting ready to reverse and it sure did, down 8.66% on Monday on a big gap-down red marubozu that sent the indicators lower before ever hitting overbought and formed a good bearish stochastic crossover..  Now there's still strong year-long support around 11.95 but that still leaves some room to run lower before hitting that on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:05 AM EDT with ES down 0.40 %.  ES had its best day in a month on Monday, handily confirming Friday's hammer, sending the indicators higher off oversold, completing a nice bullish stochastic crossover and exiting the descending RTC for a big bullish setup.  That all looks strong except that we're real close to resistance at 2104.  So we need to see how ES deals with that level.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2072.75 to 2090.92. That leaves ES sitting right on top of the new pivot so this indicator is indecisive.

Dollar index:  After days of wishy-washy indecision last night I wrote that "I can finally make a call here for a move lower on Monday."  And that call paid off with a 0.43% decline in the dollar to trade entirely outside its recent rising RTC for a bearish trigger.  With indicators now falling off overbought and s solidly completed bearish stochastic crossover there seems to be lots of room to run lower still here.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "this one looks bullish for Monday", and indeed the euro rose again to close at 1.1024 in a move that sent the indicators overbought.  The stochastic is still rising though but the new overnight seems to be losing steam so we could be in for a pause here on Tuesday.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans did a bit better than the Dow with a bullish one white soldier good for a nearly 1.5% advance.  That drove the indicators right off oversold and sent the stochastic curving around to prepare for a bullish crossover.  So it looks like there's plenty of gas in this tank for further gains.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212 August     4      1       0           1       0.800    503


     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are generally bullish technically  following last Friday's bottoming action.  Whether the reversal can be sustained is another issue particularly given the non-trivial losses in the futures, apparently triggered by news of a currency devaluation by the Chicoms.  What pin action this will have on Tuesday is unclear.  But with ES currently sitting exactly on top of its pivot, that's a perfect opportunity for another conditional call: if ES breaks above its pivot and stays there by mid-morning Tuesday, we close higher.  But if it breaks lower and stays there by mid-morning, we close lower.  Simple as that.

Single Stock Trader

VZ got swept up in the general euphoria on Monday with its best day since March.  It wasn't looking that way on its own merits though, so I couldn't call it higher that way last night.  But everything I wrote about the Dow tonight holds true for VZ too.  Except that we're now nearly overbought and I'm afraid this might be a case of running too far too fast.  So Tuesday could be a pause here and therefore I'm not calling it a buy.  This is a pop we just missed.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher....
• ES pivot 2072.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last Thursday night I played it conservative and made a conditional call for Friday.  As it turns out, ES never even made a run at its pivot, closed well below and so the market closed lower.  This doesn't always work, but it works often enough to keep it in Ye Olde Bag of Trickes.  Oh and allow me to point out that I mentioned that Friday might be a hammer day and you will note that that is exactly what we got.  So with the back-patting out of the way let's move on to Monday and see what the charts have to say about it.

The technicals

The Dow:  So on Friday, the Dow did nothing but go DOWn (nyuk nyuk) until it touched its lower BB.  That propelled it back up on an afternoon rally to end with just a 46 point loss on the aforementioned hammer candle.  The stochastic is just starting to curve around for a bullish crossover and RSI has now hit zero - it doesn't get any lower.  RSI zero hits are quite rare and usually really good bottom markers.

The VIX:  And correspondingly on Friday the VIX gave us a tall inverted hammer that sent indicators nearly overbought and started the stochastic curving around for a bearish crossover.  So that's a reversal indicator here too.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EDT with ES up  0.24%.  On Friday, ES put in a nice classic hammer with a tail that touched its lower BB and also successfully saved support at the 200 day MA.  It also drove the indicators oversold, though the stochastic has yet to curve around for a bullish crossover.  But overall this looks quite bullish to me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2082.92 to 2072.75. And that move plus the overnight rise in ES is finally enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday that dollar gapped down to form a dramatic tall inverted hammer that just touched its upper BB before retreating for a 0.29% loss.  That sent it out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup, sent the indicators lower off overbought and completed a bearish stochastic crossover.  So I can finally make a call here for a move lower on Monday.

Euro:  Similarly, on Friday the euro broke out of its falling RTC for a bullish setup on a tall hammer that sent the indicators off oversold and completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  So overall this one looks bullish for Monday.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans took a big hit, down 1.39% in a move that sent the indicators quite oversold.  The stochastic is still in falling mode though so the reversal signs aren't quite as good here as the other charts.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August     3      1       0           1       0.800    261


     And the winner is...

Tonight I'm seeing a number of quite good reversal signs in the charts that are supported by the overnight futures.  The SPX Hi-Lo indicators has also hit 20, which is low enough for a market reversal.  Meanwhile, Dr. Copper is showing signs of stabilizing after a miserable July (and June).  So I'm just going to go ahead and call Monday higher.  We'll see.

Single Stock Trader

VZ disconfirmed Thursday's hammer on Friday, getting caught up in the general slump as it continued lower.  And with indicators amazingly still overbought, the end is not near.  So still no buy here.