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- Friday higher, high confidence. Bull-bear ratio is 9:1.
- ES pivot 1243.00. Remaining above is bullish.
- Next week bias up..
- Monthly outlook: bias up on technicals.
- ES Fantasy Trader went long at 1255.00.
Hoo boy, when I'm wrong I'm really wrong. My call for a lower close today was effectively torpedoed by the Prime Minister of Greece who announced that there isn't going to be a referendum on whether or not Greeks want to retire 10 years before they begin working after all.
I don't know, maybe tomorrow he'll announce that China has bought the entire country and is having it towed to the South China Sea. That would make as much sense as anything else I'm hearing these days. In any case, it was good enough to power the Dow up 208 points on sketchy technicals. Let's see if I can do any better tonight for Friday.
The Dow: Last night I didn't like this chart, tonight I do. We now have two strong solid green candles, today's close at 12,044 taking us back up over not only the 12K resistance line but also the 200 day MA at 11,974.too. The indicators are all rising and the stochastic is about to execute a bullish crossover. No resistance til 12,230 so +1 bulls.
The VIX: For the fifth time in six sessions the VIX moved in gap fashion, today dropping nearly 7%. While we have now completely retraced the big gap up from Monday, the stochastic is just executing a bearish crossover, suggesting the VIX ca go lower Friday. Not much in the way of good support here either, so I'm saying +1 bulls.
VIX futures: The futures dropped on a big inverted hammer but have the same bearish crossover stochastic thing going as the VIX itself. And this gap is only about half filled. With the other indicators also declining, I'd give this one +1 bulls too.
Market index futures: Little guidance here tonight. YM is exactly flat, NQ is up 0.06% and ES is down by the same amount at 1:50 AM EDT. At 1255.25, ES is getting close to its 200 day MA at 1261.84. Rather than the pivot, I think this will be the number to watch on Friday. If ES can cross this line successfully, that will be bullish indeed. The stochastic just finished a bullish crossover and that's good enough for me, so +1 bulls.
ES daily pivot: Now 1243.00. While is is basically unchanged in the overnight, the pivot moved up. But even at that we're still 12 points above it and showing no signs of any attraction, so I'll give this one +1 bulls.
Dollar index: The dollar moved lower on an inverted hammer today. Its indicators have all peaked and are headed lower, suggesting the buck will follow suit Friday, but it is close to its 200 day MA again. While that provided no obstacle on the way up two days ago, it might provide some support Friday. But it still has a bit more room to get there, so that's +1 bulls.
Oil: Moved higher today on a hanging man and mixed indicators. Being at the top of its recent trading range suggests it will go lower Friday which would be bad for stocks so +1 bears.
Copper: At least I got this one right. Copper did indeed move higher today. And the indicators are still looking good and no nearby resistance, so +1 bulls.
Morningstar Market Fair Value Index: Today the index bounced right back up from 0.87 to 0.89, so +1 bulls.
History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac says Friday is bullish, so +1 bulls.
And the winner is...
The bulls, by a bull-bear ratio of 9:1. This sort of lopsided result is usually pretty accurate - unless of course the FT reports that George Papandreau found a fly in his moussaka or something, which will set off a global financial panic. There's simply no chart for that. Assuming these Europeans can keep quiet for a day, we might see some more upside Friday.
ES Fantasy Trader
Today we covered our short for a loss of 8.25 points. Portfolio stats: the account is now $172,500 after 33 trades (24 wins, 9 losses) since inception on 8/18 with $100K.
BOT 10 ES false DEC11 Futures 1227.00 USD GLOBEX NOV 2 01:13:12SLD 10 ES false DEC11 Futures 1235.25 USD GLOBEX NOV 2 11:45:14
Tonight we go long at 1255.00.