Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2093.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well at least I redeemed myself by calling the very last day of the month lower as the Dow sank on shocking news that Apple's latest gee-gaw might have a manufacturing fault affecting its ability to buzz your wrist.  Or something.  How awful.  Sheesh.  I'm thinking of abandoning the Dow as a benchmark.  These sorts of shenanigans just give me a pain.  But at least April is finally over and that leads us straight to the merry month of Sell in May.  So is it on the first?  Let's check the charts and find out.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow ended April with a nasty tumble that took it off overbought in a big way to finish on month-long support.  I'd guess it'd be due for a DCB if nothing else on Friday.

The VIX:  And tellingly the VIX on Thursday gapped up with a tall green spinning top that just touched its 200 day MA but failed to break above.  Indicators are nearing overbought so this is a reversal sign worth watching.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EDT with ES up 0.18%.  ES had a bad day Thursday and is now nearly oversold.  The recent sell-off is clearly inverse exponential and frankly looks to be getting near the end to me.  The overnight seems to be hinting at a turnaround.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2100.67 to 2093.75. That still leaves ES under the new pivot but only just barely.  So it remains bearish for now but is worth keeping an eye on.

Dollar index:  The dollar which until recently seemed unstoppable now seems un-savable as it continued its losing streak, now eight in a row.  We're right on an important YTD support line now, the stochastic is flat on the floor and RSI just hit zero.  It doesn't get any more oversold than that so I'd have to hazard that the next move is higher.

Euro:  And similarly it is the euro which now looks unstoppable having completely reversed its express train ride to Parityville and now back to 1.1266 for a seven day winning streak that looks to be going exponential and traded mostly above its upper BB on Thursday.  This one looks ripe for a fall any day now.  The overnight seems headed that way, down a big 0.47% already.

Transportation:  200 day MA support meant nothing to the trans as they crashed right though it on Thursday to hit oversold levels and like hte Dow, month-long support.  The recent trend is inverse exponential and we all know how that always ends.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1

     And the winner is...

Tonight I see a bunch of charts going exponential or near strong S/R lines.  The futures are guiding higher and Friday is the first of a new month and that's historically bullish so I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ seems to have hit some headwinds here being unable to make any progress for two days now with two stars that suggest a move lower next.  Still not a swing buy.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower....
• ES pivot 2100.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well that was sure a non-event.  The Fed announcement at 2 PM Wednesday wasn't even the biggest mover of the day.  And when all was said and done the Dow ended down 75 points marking the fourth up/down daily alternation in a row.  I'll be really happy to see the end of April so let's just see what Thursday has in store.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow on Wednesday put in its seventh reversal warning in a row - with no reversal happening.  This is getting to be rather frustrating.  This time we got a second hanging man in a row.  We have overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover but none of that has been working all month.  Will the end of April be any different?

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX put in a textbook-classic long-legged doji star above Tuesday's decline.  So with the VIX only now just off oversold we at least have a warning of a move lower but not a good one.  At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this requires confirmation,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  ES put in its fourth day in a row of alternating gains and losses on Wednesday though each day featured lower highs and lower lows.  That's got the indicators finally off overbought though it also dropped ES out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  All in all this chart looks more negative than positive a the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2104.25 to 2100.67. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish from last night.

Dollar index:  The dollar is now in a downtrend apparent even to Stevie Wonder, falling all the way back on Wednesday to where it was on February 26th as it continues to cascade down its lower BB.  Indicators are now majorly oversold with RSI at 1.52, its lowest level since September 18, 2013.  But note that back then there was still another whole month of downside to come.  So is this the end of the current downtrend?  Can't say just yet.  This is one falling knife I'll take a pass on.

Euro:  Meanwhile, the euro had a great day, closing at 1.1118, punching right up through its upper BB for its best close since March 4th.  But the indicators are now massively overbought.  RSI just hit 100 - it doesn't go any higher than that.  That all makes the euro look ripe for some profit-taking on Thursday.  Just look at the chart - would you rather be buying here or selling here?  QED.

Transportation:  The trans got hit hard on Wednesday, down triple to loss of the Dow and saved only by their 200 day MA.  The indicators are now off overbought and the last time we were here the trans rebounded the next day.  But that's  a crap shoot at this point.  I can't call this one.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      2      8       7           0       0.200   -194

     And the winner is...

I'm so tired of being wrong essentially all month long I just want to call Thursday uncertain.  But the preponderance of technical evidence looks bearish so I guess I'll just close my eyes and call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ finally put an end to5 a six day winning streak proving that the longer it goes on the less likely you need to get on board.  And with a perfect doji star sitting on its upper BB we have a good sign of a move lower next.  I'd not buy here.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2104.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

So let's see - Sunday night I said the market would go higher on Monday, so it went lower.  Then Monday night I said ti would go lower on Tuesday - so it went higher!  Grrr. This is getting ridiculous  At least one thing I do know - Wednesday is a Fed day and it is my policy to always call these days as uncertain, so that's what I'm going to do.  Accordingly, we'll skip the detailed chart run-down tonight as there's no point to it.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2108.25  to 2104.25. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      2      8       6           0       0.200   -194

     And the winner is...

The general expectation seems to be that the Fed isn't going to say anything on Wednesday we haven't already heard and I completely agree with that.  A June rate hike in particular looks completely off the table.  Still you never can tell, so I'm just calling Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ has bee climbing its upper BB for four days now.  It can keep doing that for all I care - that is not a buy signal.  Not in anybody's book that I know of.  So we just let this one slide for now.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower....
• ES pivot 2108.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Aargh!  Sometimes you just can't win for losing.  I figured Monday would go higher and it indeed popped nicely out the gate - but then spent the rest of the day slowly sinking into the quicksand with the misery finally ending only because the bell rang at 4 PM.  Foo.  I wonder if the addition of Apple to the Dow has anything to do with this.  This is my worst month prediction-wise in well over a year now.  Oh well, that was then, this is next.  So we march on to Tuesday and I'll be happy to see the end of this month.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well just when it looked like we were developing a rising RTC, the Dow had a losing day.  It was only 42 points but that was enough to form a big bearish engulfing pattern and set up the stochastic for a bearish crossover.  So much for my ascending triangle - duh!  Right now, this chart just looks bearish.

The VIX:  At least I got this much right when last night I said "the VIX is due for a move higher from here".  On Monday, the VIX had its biggest real-body move in two weeks with a 6.75% pop.  That was good for a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit plus a bullish stochastic crossover.  So this chart now looks flat out bullish.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 12:12 AM EDT with ES down a scant 0.07%.  Last night I mentioned the upper BB for ES at 2120 as a target and that's just where it peaked on Monday before retreating to form a fat red spinning top and snapping its winning streak at four.  A bearish stochastic crossover is now complete, the candle is bearish engulfing, we've hit the upper BB, the indicators have begun to move lower though still overbought, and the overnight is gapping lower.  That all looks bearish to me for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls a tad from 2109.83 to 2108.25. After falling below the old pivot around noon on Monday we remain below the new one so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I deferred calling Monday higher because the incipient morning star required confirmation.  And this is why we do that - on Monday the dollar dropped another 0.16%.  But it did it on a hammer that just touched the lower BB and left the indicators oversold.  So now we're left with another reversal warning but one the again requires confirmation so again we're waiting for that.

Euro:  After a second spinning top in a row, this one tighter than last Friday's, all the factors that made me think the euro would go lower Monday remain in place only now more so.  Of course I was wrong about Monday, so maybe I'll be even more wrong Tuesday.  But the euro has ceased its advance in the overnight so maybe this is the reversal.

Transportation:  And just to show I do know something, last night I wrote "[a bunch of stuff] looks like a good sign for a move lower on Monday." and that's what the trans did, down 0.86% to fall out of their rising RTC for a bearish setup with a completed bearish stochastic crossover with indicators still overbought..  This all just looks continued lower on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      2      7       6           0       0.222   -122

     And the winner is...

The charts have gone from looking bullish to bearish in the space of one day so now I'm going to change gears and call Tuesday lower.  This month has been so dismal for me it's about time I get one right.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to play coy.  After a spinning top Friday it put in a tall inverted hammer on Monday.  This too is a reversal warning.  So when is VZ finally ever going to go lower?  I don't know, but I do know this still isn't the time to get on the bus, Gus.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2109.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing buy here.

Recap

We ended last week with yet another doji, this one a long-legged spinning top good for all of 21 points in the Dow.  I'm glad I called that "uncertain" as these small change days are barely worth getting out of bed for.  Now as the month finally grinds to a conclusion, let's see if we can't get something a bit more definitive going here as we check the charts for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well there is one thing you can say for the Dow.  It looks to me like we have an ascending triangle pattern going here and it's just about completely baked.  If so, that would be quite a bullish sign.  The indicators continue to wander aimlessly between oversold and overbought so there's clearly a bit of room to run here.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I figured a tall hammer that nearly touched the lower BB meant a move higher was on the way.  Well it was not to be as the VIX fell some more on Friday, down another 1.52%, but on a tall gravestone doji that respected Thursday's low.  Now that's an even better reversal sign so I still think the VIX is due for a move higher from here especially since we're now at six month lows.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are just slightly higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up  0.02%.  ES is now on  five day winning streak and has cleared all remaining resistance.  And it's still not overbought.  So with the upper BB now at 2121, there's still some room to run here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2103.00 to 2109.83.  ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I noted some dollar support and deferred committing on it pending confirmation.  Good thing too because on Friday the dollar sliced right through that support to gap down 0.36%.  That leaves us with 2/3 of a morning star with oversold indicators but it, one again requires confirmation so still no call here.

Euro:  And of course the euro fooled me on Friday by moving higher again, to 1.0875.  The resulting fast spinning top is a weak reversal indicator and RSI has started moving lower, though still overbought.  The Sunday overnight is also headed down so perhaps the euro may be headed lower on Monday.

Transportation:  The trans broke a four day winning streak Friday with a small doji star in bearish harami position that also caused a bearish stochastic crossover.    And with indicators now pretty overbought, this looks like a good sign for a move lower on Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      2      6       6           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

I may live to regret it because the charts are not all in agreement but I think there are just enough positive signs tonight for me to go out on a limb and call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ was unable to make any headway last Friday with a spinning top sitting right on its upper BB and indicators nearly overbought.  It's definitely not looking like a swing buy for Monday.