Friday, May 1, 2015

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2093.75.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Well at least I redeemed myself by calling the very last day of the month lower as the Dow sank on shocking news that Apple's latest gee-gaw might have a manufacturing fault affecting its ability to buzz your wrist.  Or something.  How awful.  Sheesh.  I'm thinking of abandoning the Dow as a benchmark.  These sorts of shenanigans just give me a pain.  But at least April is finally over and that leads us straight to the merry month of Sell in May.  So is it on the first?  Let's check the charts and find out.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow ended April with a nasty tumble that took it off overbought in a big way to finish on month-long support.  I'd guess it'd be due for a DCB if nothing else on Friday.

The VIX:  And tellingly the VIX on Thursday gapped up with a tall green spinning top that just touched its 200 day MA but failed to break above.  Indicators are nearing overbought so this is a reversal sign worth watching.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EDT with ES up 0.18%.  ES had a bad day Thursday and is now nearly oversold.  The recent sell-off is clearly inverse exponential and frankly looks to be getting near the end to me.  The overnight seems to be hinting at a turnaround.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2100.67 to 2093.75. That still leaves ES under the new pivot but only just barely.  So it remains bearish for now but is worth keeping an eye on.

Dollar index:  The dollar which until recently seemed unstoppable now seems un-savable as it continued its losing streak, now eight in a row.  We're right on an important YTD support line now, the stochastic is flat on the floor and RSI just hit zero.  It doesn't get any more oversold than that so I'd have to hazard that the next move is higher.

Euro:  And similarly it is the euro which now looks unstoppable having completely reversed its express train ride to Parityville and now back to 1.1266 for a seven day winning streak that looks to be going exponential and traded mostly above its upper BB on Thursday.  This one looks ripe for a fall any day now.  The overnight seems headed that way, down a big 0.47% already.

Transportation:  200 day MA support meant nothing to the trans as they crashed right though it on Thursday to hit oversold levels and like hte Dow, month-long support.  The recent trend is inverse exponential and we all know how that always ends.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1

     And the winner is...

Tonight I see a bunch of charts going exponential or near strong S/R lines.  The futures are guiding higher and Friday is the first of a new month and that's historically bullish so I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ seems to have hit some headwinds here being unable to make any progress for two days now with two stars that suggest a move lower next.  Still not a swing buy.

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