Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain....
  • ES pivot 2104.25.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

So let's see - Sunday night I said the market would go higher on Monday, so it went lower.  Then Monday night I said ti would go lower on Tuesday - so it went higher!  Grrr. This is getting ridiculous  At least one thing I do know - Wednesday is a Fed day and it is my policy to always call these days as uncertain, so that's what I'm going to do.  Accordingly, we'll skip the detailed chart run-down tonight as there's no point to it.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2108.25  to 2104.25. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      2      8       6           0       0.200   -194

     And the winner is...

The general expectation seems to be that the Fed isn't going to say anything on Wednesday we haven't already heard and I completely agree with that.  A June rate hike in particular looks completely off the table.  Still you never can tell, so I'm just calling Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ has bee climbing its upper BB for four days now.  It can keep doing that for all I care - that is not a buy signal.  Not in anybody's book that I know of.  So we just let this one slide for now.

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