Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1863.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Well the SPX barely squeaked out a gain on Wednesday but my calls are for the Dow and that did end down just a bit, so I was right.  But now we've got some more interesting patterns to mull over as the snow flies outside tonight, so let's get right to it.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Wednesday the Dow put in a tall hammer after two days of declines.  We remain in a descending RTC with a bearish stochastic crossover so this is just a suggestion of a reversal, but one which requires confirmation.

The VIX:  After breaking through its 200 day MA on Tuesday, the VIX motored on higher Wednesday, bounced off its upper BB - and then crashed right back through the MA to finish 0ff 2.23%.  This is the mother of all dark cloud covers so although RSI is oversold, the candle plus the MA breakdown suggest a lower VIX on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:38 AM EDT with ES up by a respectable 0.27%.  Wednesday gave us a nice-looking green hammer at the lower end of Tuesday's dump and the overnight seems to be confirming that, so this chart now looks bullish again.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1870.17  to 1863.50.  That move plus the overnight gains in ES combined to put it comfortably above the new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar broke support at 54.27 on Wednesday to finish 0.15% lower on a spinning top that nearly hit the lower BB.  So Thursday might go higher but the dollar has just been bouncing all over the place lately so I'm not committing to that in the absence of any better signals..

Euro: Foo - that pesky euro.  I thought it was going lower Wednesday but instead it put in a big bullish engulfing candle that just touched its upper BB.  Indicators are not quite overbought but the new overnight is continuing significantly higher, to levels not seen since October 2011 in fact.  So at this point one can't really call for a move lower on Thursday.

Transportation: Like the Dow, the trans put in a hammer on Wednesday but this was a nice fat green one with a main body as a bullish engulfing pattern that pretty much canceled Tuesday's bearish trigger.  So although the indicators remain quite overbought, the trans don't seem too interested in selling off here.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March      7       0      1           0       1.000    587

     And the winner is...

tonight we're seeing a bunch of reversal candles and futures showing non-trivial gains.  Add in a VIX that failed to capitalize on a 200 MA breakthrough and that sends me out on a limb to call Thursday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1870.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

My idea that the break after three doji days would be lower played out nicely as the Dow lost 67 points on Tuesday.  It was in fact an interesting move, as we shall see shortly upon exploring the charts tonight.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow confirmed last night's hanging man by dropping 67 points on Tuesday and thus giving a bearish RTC trigger.  We also got, not surprisingly, a bearish stochastic crossover to go with indicators now moving off overbought.  So this chart continues to look bearish.

The VIX:  On Tuesday the VIX took another crack at its 200 day MA at 14.69 and this time managed to close above it, just barely.  VVIX was up too, but on a red hanging man.  This pattern may or may not have any follow-through.  With the VIX bouncing around and no RTC going now, this one is too tough for me.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are a tad lower at 12:37 AM EDT with ES down by 0.05%.  Last night I wrote that "ES is more interested in moving lower next" after three days of noodling around indecisively.  Well that's what happened alright and it dropped ES out of its rising RTC on Tuesday for a bearish setup.  Indicators continue to move lower just off overbought so overall this chart now looks bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1873.92  to 1870.17.  We remain below the new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index: On Tuesday the dollar tried to  extend its momentum from the past two days but ultimately failed, ending down just 0.05% but on a tall red candle.  This dark cloud cover-like candle is de facto bearish but the indicators remain just off oversold moving higher, so this one isn't clear at all.

Euro:Meanwhile the euro put in a nice hanging man on Tuesday as it broke away from its upper BB and formed a bearish stochastic crossover.   With the overnight guiding decidedly lower, it looks bearish for the euro on Wednesday.

Transportation: The trans dropped, like the Dow on Tuesday confirming a red spinning top ... with another red spinning top.  But this one was also a bearish RTC trigger and with the indicators now clearly topped at overbought, this chart looks bearish.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March      6       0      1           0       1.000    576

     And the winner is...

Hmm - I'd like to say I see some bullish signs tonight, but I don't.  And the NYSE A/D line has been putting in lower highs and lower lows for six days now, a bearish sign.  And the SPX Hi-Lo index has not spiked lower, a move that usually precedes bottoms.  And the TLT appears to have bottomed on a bullish RTC trigger.  And Dr. Copper crashed through his 200 day MA on Tuesday continuing a three day waterfall lower.  So much as I don't like to say it, the signs all seem to be pointing toWednesday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1873.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Denial of the Day

I want to take this opportunity to tell the world that there is absolutely no truth whatsoever to the rumors going around that I am the inventor of Bitcoin.  I categorically deny having anything to do with it anymore.  And if any reporter from the AP wants to interview  me, I'm available any day you choose.    There's a real nice sushi joint just down the street.

Recap

The market's recent rise has been pretty much straight up - with a smattering of down days here and thee.  Was Monday one of them or is this the start of the Paul Farrellocalypse?  The nice thing about the charts is that they never get all hyped up over Internet ramblings.  So let's see what this voice of reason has to say about Tuesday now.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Monday the Dow lost 34 points on an interesting hanging man.  Alone, that's a reversal sign.  Trading entirely outside the latest rising RTC that's a bearish setup.  With a failure to bust 16,463 and overbought indicators, that's a big "hmmm".  With an inverted hammer touching the upper BB and then a hanging man, methinks Mr. M. is trying to tell us something here... and it's lower.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "the VIX looks ready to move higher Monday".  And it did - sorta, gaining a scant 0.64% in an advance that was stymied by its 200 day MA, a barrier that proved too tough to pierce.  So rebuffed like this, the VIX now looks less than energetic.  I doubt it will be able to punch through the MA on Tuesday, though a modest gain is also not out of the question.


Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are modestly lower at 12:51 AM EDT with ES down by 0.09%.  ES has been vacillating around the 1877 area for three days now, unable to either make any headway nor fall away.  While we remain in a rising RTC, the indicators have slowly started moving down off overbought, a bearish sign.  There's not really all that much to go on here, but if I had to guess, I'd cautiously suggest that ES is more interested in moving lower next.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1878.25  to 1873.92.  We're now back above the new pivot thanks only to that so this indicator turns bullish again, if only by default.

Dollar index: Friday's spinning top for the dollar resolved as a reversal with Monday gaining 0.05%.  With the indicators now oversold and the stochastic about to execute a bullish crossover, I vote for a higher dollar Tuesday..

Euro: The euro is looking tired after last Thursday's monster pop.  Unable for the second day in a row to capitalize on that it put in an anemic doji that didn't come close to Friday's high.  The new overnight started higher in a valiant effort to forge ahead but to no avail.

Transportation: The trans equivocated big time on Monday with a long-legged doji whose top failed to break Friday's high.  It also left us right outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  And with overbought indicators, this is a good warning of lower to come.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March      5       0      1           0       1.000    509

     And the winner is...

Things are looking a bit toppy to me tonight and the charts all seem to be low on mojo, particularly the futures.  There are now some bearish signs out there and while they're not especially compelling, they're just enough to make me go out on a limb and call Tuesday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1878.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

The trend continues to be our friend, even as I don't see much reason to call the ,market higher.  But the fact that it's been going higher seems to suffice.  We now turn out attention to the charts as we attempt to sniff out those pesky bears to see when and if they're going to come out of hibernation.  Will it be Monday?  Read on...

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Friday the Dow gained 31 points with a green spinning top that ended teetering right on the edge of its rising RTC, close to but not quite a bearish setup after nearly hitting its upper BB.  That also brought the stochastic close to but not quite a bearish crossover.  So we now have some warnings of a reversal, but they frustratingly enough all require confirmation.  Se we have to wait and see how Monday plays out on this one.

The VIX:  Meanwhile. the VIX put in a funny green candle that traded mostly below Thursday's for a net 0.70% loss.  We're now right at support and the stochastic is trying to set u a bullish crossover but jut like the Dow, this one is only a suggestion of a reversal.  Nevertheless if I had to guess I'd say the VIX looks ready to move higher Monday.  A pop in VVIX back above its 200 day MA supports this notion.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:41 AM EDT with ES down by 0.25%. On Friday ES put in a long-legged doji that just tapped the upper BB.  The overnight action seems to be confirming that doji and is forming a bearish stochastic crossover.  So although we do remain in a rising RTC, the outlook for Monday is bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1876.08  to 1878.25.  We moved below the old number Sunday evening and remain below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish for the first time in a while.

Dollar index: On Friday the dollar put in something of a DCB after Thursday big dump.  The resulting spinning top indicates indecision..

Euro: And after last Thursday's big jump for the euro, on Friday it made an inverted hammer above its upper BB.  Despite this, it is continuing higher in the Sunday evening trade, so there's not any really bearish signs here for Monday.

Transportation: On Friday the trans gave us something of an inverted hammer that remained inside the rising RTC and pushed indicators further overbought while bouncing off the upper BB.  This could be a reversal sign, but one which requires confirmation.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March      4       0      1           0       1.000    475

     And the winner is...

All last week I was calling for higher closes less on bullish signs and more on a lack of bearish signs.  Well it looks like tonight we're finally seeing some.  And Dr. Copper took a big dump on Friday.  So I'm going to go ahead and call Monday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.