Friday stock market forrecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2152.33.  Neither bullish nor bearish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Last night I made a conditional call for the Dow.  Recall that the idea is that if ES is above or below its daily pivot by mid-morning of the day in question, then we'll close in that direction.  ES fell below its pivot at 5:35 AM and was still there by mid-morning Thursday.  And the Dow did indeed close lower, albeit by only13 points.  But that still counts and the condition was met so we'll take it.  We now move on to Friday as the first week of the spooky month of October wobbles its way to a conclusion.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:28 AM EDT with ES down 0.19%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2150.75 to 2152.33.  ES is once again sitting essentially on top of its new pivot so like last night, we have to guidance from this indicator.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October    0      1       2           1       0.500     -85

     And the winner is...

Lately Mr. Market has only one thing on his mind - jobs.  And there are some big numbers coming out on Friday.  It's as good an excuse as any to call the close as uncertain.  But when you look at the trendless state of the charts you don't really need much of an excuse.  The last time the Dow was either oversold or overbought was on September 23rd.  Since then it's been meandering without direction somewhere in between.

I do notice two things though - one, the futures are running lower tonight in a way they haven't been at this time the past few days, and two,  the Dow is at the top of its recent range with a tall hanging man.  It's probably silly of me to even try but I'm going to call Friday lower.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.