Monday, October 3, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2154,83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Foo.  After getting whipsawed the last half of last week, we managed to end the month in the red, being the second losing month this year for my predictions - and that's the first time that's happened to me in six years.  And all largely thanks to some stupid bank in Germany.  Ach du lieber!

 But these are the sorts of things you just can't foresee in the technicals so there's no point in getting too exercised about it.  At the end of the day all you can do is play the hand you're dealt.  This one came up eights and aces.  Sometimes that happens.  In this game you're always either a hero or a zero.  So let's see if we can come back from the dead on Monday as we begin a new week, a new quarter, and the downright spooky month of October

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:41 AM EDT with ES up just one tick. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2150.92 to 2154,83.  That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59

     And the winner is...

Tonight the gutures are barely holding their ground and seem to be losing steam as I write.  Also, while the first day of most months is positive, that's not the case for October.  In fact it's rather bearish.  I'd like to call the market lower but I'm tired of getting jerked around by the recent up/down/up action and with all the indicators stuck halfway between oversold and overbought, there's just not much to go on.  Add in the fact that Mondays are always the hardest day to call and I'm going to wimp out and simply call Monday uncertain.  I also want to see if there's any further developments in the latest European banking crisis du jour.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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