Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2150.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Ouch.  That's all I can say about Thursday.  Ouch.  I called it higher and although the Dow did in fact start off in that direction, it then wavered before taking a giant (black?) swan dive right around lunch time to finish near sessions low off nearly 200 points.  But looking back on last night's charts I still don't really see how I could have done anything different.  Apparently the fate of some bank in Germany will cause people to buy 2% fewer sneakers or 16% fewer cell phones.  Maybe it's just me, but I don't get the sort of intermeshed shenanigans that lead to these sorts of results.  But with all that said I'll note that we closed at a level not seen since the day before yesterday.  And with that we move on to the end of the week, the month, and the quarter.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:28 AM EDT with ES down 0.27%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2157.50 to 2150.92.  That now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      4       6           0       0.500     106

     And the winner is...

Well this 200 point plunge sure did a number on the technicals Thursday.  Everything that looked bullish last night now looks bearish.  The indicators have all begun falling again before ever reaching overbought and the VIX looks ready to move higher again.  Something clearly has Mr. Market spooked and we're coming up on the last day of September, historically an awful day.  On top of that the futures are guiding lower as I write this.  I wish there was something positive I could find in the charts but I can't so I'll just have to call Friday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.