Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2161.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Last Thursday night I mentioned several factors that might cause the market to close lower on Friday and that seems to have done the trick as the Dow dropped  a full 131 points on Friday, its biggest loss in two weeks.  We now move ahead to another interesting week as we close out both the month and the quarter.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:39 AM EDT with ES down 0.15%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2164.58 to 2161.17.  That now leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  2      2       6           0       0.500     113

     And the winner is...

Last Friday saw a pretty conclusive bearish evening star pattern in the Dow, the SPX, and the trans, accompanied by an overbought stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover.  Add in to the mix a VIX that took a small bounce to end two days of steep losses and is nearing a bullish stochastic crossover.  We're also in the middle of the gloomiest time of year for the market.  I have to say that the overall impression here has to be bearish and the look of the price of oil and the Sunday overnight futures isn't helping matters any.  So I'm going to take a calculated gamble and call Monday lower.

And a quick note for those following the Down Friday/Down Monday indicator - it currently stands at 8.  A down close Monday will send it to 9.  A reading above 10 for the year is considered bearish for the following year.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.