Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2145.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

As I suspected, the market did indeed continue lower on Monday.  This incremented the Down Friday/Down Monday counter to nine on the year so far.  With just three months left to go in 2016, this does not bode well for next year.  

Tonight of course, all eyes will be turned to the Presidential Debates (I write this section earlier in the evening) but the Night Owl has no need to watch reruns of the Liars' Club so we'll leave the breathless news commentary of the aftermath to those who get paid for that sort of nonsense.  Instead, we will examine the charts to see what the technicals may tell us about Tuesday's market direction in our never-ending quest for truth, justice, and making the big bucks.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are significantly higher at 1:20 AM EDT with ES up a strong 0.60%, evidently getting a shot in the arm from the spectacle of two equally unqualified people telling each other how unqualified they are to be President.I'll admit I didn't watch it - did they both announce they're quitting the race or something?  That's all I can figure.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2161.17 to 2145.33.  But that, plus an evening run up in the futures now puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756 June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393 July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304 August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  3      2       6           0       0.600     280

     And the winner is...

On Monday all the charts confirmed the bearish indications we were looking at last night and the VIX jumped 18% with a bullish stochastic crossover that also exited a descending RTC for a bullish setup.  Meanwhile though, oil which looked ready to break under its 200 day MA instead bounced off it on Monday retracing most of Friday's losses and the market correlation with oil does seem to be hanging in there.

It helps too that the futures took off shortly after the Liars' Club came on TV at 9 PM and then just kept right on moving higher.  Why Mr. Market should prefer one particular set of lies over another is quite beyond me, but you can't argue with the tape and I don't intend to.  So barring some overnight calamity later on, I'll just call Tuesday higher and leave it at that.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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