Friday, December 16, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2262.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap

After sinking below its new pivot in the wee hours of Thursday morning, ES broke back above at 9:45 AM and was still there by mid-morning.  That triggered my conditional call and we indeed closed higher with the Dow advancing another 60 points.  So that worked.  Now we move on to op-ex Friday, always a tricky day.  There may or may not be something in the charts for us tonight.

The technicals

The VIX:  Well the VIX did not advance any further as I had speculated last night, instead retracing half of Wednesday's gains for a three percent loss on Thursday.  That sort of puts the kabosh on the recent uptrend.  The current configuration looks a lot like an evening star.  Now I'm thinking the VIX will go lower on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:56 AM EST with ES up 0.07%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2260.67 to 2262.83. That leaves ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463
December   3      2       4           1       0.667     -34

     And the winner is...

On Thursday we got a bullish piercing pattern out of ES and an inverted hammer/bullish harami sort of thing out of the Dow.  The VIX broke a three day winning streak and the trans broke a four day losing streak.  All of this is at least slightly bullish.  My only concern is how short-term overbought the market remains.  But December triple witching is historically quite bullish so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday higher.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.