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- Friday higher.
- ES pivot 2262.83. Holding above is bullish.
- Next week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
After sinking below its new pivot in the wee hours of Thursday morning, ES broke back above at 9:45 AM and was still there by mid-morning. That triggered my conditional call and we indeed closed higher with the Dow advancing another 60 points. So that worked. Now we move on to op-ex Friday, always a tricky day. There may or may not be something in the charts for us tonight.
The technicals
The VIX: Well the VIX did not advance any further as I had speculated last night, instead retracing half of Wednesday's gains for a three percent loss on Thursday. That sort of puts the kabosh on the recent uptrend. The current configuration looks a lot like an evening star. Now I'm thinking the VIX will go lower on Friday.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:56 AM EST with ES up 0.07%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2260.67 to 2262.83. That leaves ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.
Accuracy:
average points January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304
August 1 3 8 0 0.250 120
September 4 5 6 0 0.444 -59
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
November 4 4 5 3 0.636 463
December 3 2 4 1 0.667 -34
And the winner is...
On Thursday we got a bullish piercing pattern out of ES and an inverted hammer/bullish harami sort of thing out of the Dow. The VIX broke a three day winning streak and the trans broke a four day losing streak. All of this is at least slightly bullish. My only concern is how short-term overbought the market remains. But December triple witching is historically quite bullish so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday higher.
That's all she wrote. See you again Sunday night.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.
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