Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Wednesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2268.25. Holding above is bullish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Whoa - looks like I picked a bad day to be wrong. Last night I said the tide was running out but rather than falling on Tuesday the Dow racked up another 115 points to come within shouting distance of the fabled 20K handle. I don't know what keeps powering the overbought market higher but5 Tuesday made it six in a row now as the Dow continues to crawl up its upper BB. RSI hit 100 on Tuesday, as overbought it gets.Of course I always feel better if I call the market lower and it goes higher instead than the other way around. Still, I hate being wrong so we will endeavor to do better for Wednesday.
The technicals
The VIX: As I expected the VIX did rise on Tuesday, if only by 0.63% but confoundingly the rest of the market did no move lower. IN fact, the candle was a tall inverted hammer suggesting the next move is lower. That would mean the market rally isnt' over yet. Amazing ...
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:19 AM EST with ES down just 0.02% but NQ up 0.08%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2259.50 to 2268.25. ES is now once again back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish.
Accuracy:
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304
August 1 3 8 0 0.250 120
September 4 5 6 0 0.444 -59
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
November 4 4 5 3 0.636 463
December 3 2 4 0 0.600 -34
On Tuesdayt my whole thesis from last night for a lower close collapsed in a heap. Now we're coming to a Fed day and it is my fixed policy to automatically call such days as "uncertain" since they're inevitably news-driven. So even though practically everyone is expecting a rate hike I'm still going to call Wednesday uncertain. The conventional wisdom is that Mr. Market will throw a fit if the Fed hikes but these are hardly conventional times. We'll see.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.
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