Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2268.25.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Whoa - looks like I picked a bad day to be wrong.  Last night I said the tide was running out but rather than falling on Tuesday the Dow racked up another 115 points to come within shouting distance of the fabled 20K handle.  I don't know what keeps powering the overbought market higher but5 Tuesday made it six in a row now as the Dow continues to crawl up its upper BB.  RSI hit 100 on Tuesday, as overbought  it gets.Of course I always feel better if I call the market lower and it goes higher instead than the other way around.  Still, I hate being wrong so we will endeavor to do better for Wednesday.

The technicals

The VIX:  As I expected the VIX did rise on Tuesday, if only by 0.63% but confoundingly the rest of the market did no move lower.  IN fact, the candle was a tall inverted hammer suggesting the next move is lower.  That would mean the market rally isnt' over yet.  Amazing ...

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:19 AM EST with ES down just 0.02% but NQ up 0.08%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2259.50 to 2268.25.  ES is now once again back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish.


January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304

August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120

September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314

November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463

December   3      2       4           0       0.600     -34
     And the winner is...

On Tuesdayt my whole thesis from last night for a lower close collapsed in a heap.  Now we're coming to a Fed day and it is my fixed policy to automatically call such days as "uncertain" since they're inevitably news-driven.  So even though practically everyone is expecting a rate hike I'm still going to call Wednesday uncertain.  The conventional wisdom is that Mr. Market will throw a fit if the Fed hikes but these are hardly conventional times.  We'll see.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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