Friday, December 16, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2262.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

After sinking below its new pivot in the wee hours of Thursday morning, ES broke back above at 9:45 AM and was still there by mid-morning.  That triggered my conditional call and we indeed closed higher with the Dow advancing another 60 points.  So that worked.  Now we move on to op-ex Friday, always a tricky day.  There may or may not be something in the charts for us tonight.

The technicals

The VIX:  Well the VIX did not advance any further as I had speculated last night, instead retracing half of Wednesday's gains for a three percent loss on Thursday.  That sort of puts the kabosh on the recent uptrend.  The current configuration looks a lot like an evening star.  Now I'm thinking the VIX will go lower on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:56 AM EST with ES up 0.07%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2260.67 to 2262.83. That leaves ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463
December   3      2       4           1       0.667     -34

     And the winner is...

On Thursday we got a bullish piercing pattern out of ES and an inverted hammer/bullish harami sort of thing out of the Dow.  The VIX broke a three day winning streak and the trans broke a four day losing streak.  All of this is at least slightly bullish.  My only concern is how short-term overbought the market remains.  But December triple witching is historically quite bullish so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday higher.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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