Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 1917.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a speculative swing trade buy.

Recap

It's good I discounted the general bullish tone of the charts last night because of a warning from the futures as the Dow sank another 79 on Thursday.  Tonight I'm in the same spot as two days ago.  I spent all day  dealing with my dog who had surgery yesterday.  It all went well and now she's back home and resting comfortably.  But I never had any time to put together the usual post.  This time though I did manage to do some analysis so tonight you get Night Owl Lite - no gab, just the bottom line.

The technicals

...skipped...

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      3       7           1       0.667   1102

     And the winner is...

It's looking to me like we're now at a reversal point and that seems to be supported by the futures so I'm going to go way out on a limb and call Friday higher.  That's all she barely managed to write.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ is now a buy for the adventurous.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1926.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

My apologies to all my readers for having missed last night's post. I had a family emergency involving one of my dogs, which required an all day trip to a large veterinary specialist hospital in another city. By the time I got back home there was no time left to study the market and I figured it was better to just skip it entirely then try to wing it and possibly be wrong. As it turned out Tuesday's action was pretty much general continuation. So now that we're back on track let's move ahead and figure out where Thursday is going.





The technicals

The Dow:  Monday night I mentioned some doubts as to whether the rally we had could be sustained into Tuesday. Turns out it couldn't as we got another day of losses. Those were followed on Wednesday with more losses with the Dow down 0.31% on a short stubby hammer. Indicators are still a fair ways away from oversold but the stochastic is finally starting to curve around for a bullish crossover. So now we have at least a minor indication of a reversal but we remain in a tight descending RTC. Bottom line, it's still too soon to call the Dow higher on that basis.

The VIX:  Well this was one unusual thing I did miss on Tuesday. The VIX put in a huge inverted hammer that looked like an excellent reversal sign. And indeed on Wednesday the VIX moved lower by 1.38% to finish with a perfect doji star. Indicators are wandering around between overbought and oversold but the stochastic looks like it is now moving into position for a bearish crossover. Another unusual point is that the VIX fell on a day when the market was also lower.  Overall the VIX remains in a descending RTC so I'd say there's a good chance that we move lower again on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower once again at 12:09 AM EDT with ES down 0.34%. After a week in a steep descending RTC , on Wednesday ES put in a decent reversal candle in the form of a long-legged spinning top. Indicators have now fallen very nearly to oversold and the stochastic is definitely curving around in preparation for a bullish crossover.Unfortunately, ES is showing no interest in the wee hours of going any place other than down again as it remains in a steep descending RTC.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1938.25 to 1926.92.  But even that isn't enough to put ES back above its new pivot as it just continues falling away from it.  So this indicator continues bearish tonight.

Dollar index:  Monday night I mentioned that the dollar looked bullish. And on Tuesday it did indeed gap up on a stubby spinning top. That was followed on Wednesday with a 0.25% decline on a red candle that formed a perfect bearish engulfing pattern. It also sent indicators slightly lower just before they reached overbought. The stochastic is not yet in position for a bearish crossover but it looks like that could happen very soon. Overall this chart looks negative for Thursday.

Euro:  Monday night I mentioned the euro fall through its 200-day MA as a bearish sign. And indeed on Tuesday it continued to move lower closing at 1.1147. Then on Wednesday it staged a comeback with a bullish engulfing pattern to recoup all of Tuesday's losses and then some, closing right back up to 1.1222. But in the overnight it seems to be giving some of that back again. However we now have indicators rising off of oversold and a just-completed bullish stochastic crossover. So the majority seems to vote that the euro goes higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  After a bearish trigger on Monday the trans took a bad fall on Tuesday. That was followed by a smaller 0.44% decline on Wednesday on a small red hammer. The indicators are now all falling towards oversold and the stochastic is beginning to curve around for a bullish crossover. So we do have a fair reversal warning in place and there's a chance the trans could finally move higher on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      3       6           1       0.667   1102

     And the winner is...

Tonight we have a decidedly mixed picture with most of the charts looking ready to move higher but the futures guiding lower and oil looking ready to take another leg lower.  And with the overall bias clearly now running to the downside, it's just too risky to call Thursday higher without all the stars lined up.  So I just have to shrug and call Thursday uncertain.  Sometimes that's just how it is.

Single Stock Trader

I've been unable to get behind Verizon for some time now. It's just been one thing after another with this stock and we haven't really had any good swing buy opportunities. After a possible doji star reversal warning on Tuesday, it was disconfirmed entirely on Wednesday with another leg down. But things may be about to change because on Wednesday Verizon finally hit its lower BB and indicators have now gone oversold. More importantly the stochastic looks like it's finally about to execute a bullish crossover. However we remain in a descending RTC so we're not quite at my preferred buy point yet. But Thursday we'll be watching very carefully.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1956.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well Mr. Market really fooled me on Monday. I sure wasn't expecting a 126 point gain in the Dow. Of course I can't complain since I'm always net long anyway but things don't always work out exactly the way we planned so we just forget about it and move on to Tuesday. Let me add that there's a chance I may not be able to publish Tuesday night since I have an all day event that may not leave me enough time to put together the usual post

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow started off strong and then kept right on rising until about 11 AM when Honest Hillary, who couldn't keep her fingers off her keyboard, started twitting about how she was shocked, shocked to find that that drug prices are high That set off a decline but the Dow nevertheless managed to finish up 0.77% on the day. And that left the indicators all moving higher even though they never hit oversold. Except for the stochastic which continues to fall and is still showing no sign of a bullish crossover. Monday's action also traded outside the rising RTC which now makes it an official bearish trigger. So it remains to be seen if Monday's rally can be sustained into Tuesday

The VIX:  And on Monday the VIX put in a tall red candle confirming Friday's gap-up spinning top.  With indicators still oversold but not going anywhere, this just looks continued lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EDT with ES down 0.23%.  On Monday ES put in a small bullish piercing pattern but one which still traded outside its rising RTC and that is a bearish trigger.  The new overnight is forming another dark cloud cover, all of which leaves this chart too tough to call, though it looks more bearish than not.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1958.25 to 1956.83. And that's enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar took a huge 1.09% gap-up pop to blast right back up through its 200 day MA.  That completes a bullish stochastic crossover as the indicators all move higher just off oversold.  So this chart is now technically bullish.

Euro:  And on Monday the euro confirmed Friday's dark cloud cover with a tall gap-down red candle to close back to 1.1206, and busting down through its own 200 day MA.  Indicators continue falling off overbought so there's nothing bullish here other than a weak rally attempt as I write this.

Transportation:  After a big dump Friday, on Monday the trans retraced a quarter of that but with an unconvincing inverted hammer.  With indicators still falling just off oversold, it doesn't look particularly bullish to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      3       6           0       0.625   1102

     And the winner is...

With ES so close to its pivot and with a few conflicting directions among the charts, I'm going to do a conditional call tonight - if ES manages to remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks below and stays there, we close lower

Single Stock Trader

Verizon was one of the weaker members of the Dow on Monday but nonetheless managed to put in a small gain that was important because it respected support at 44.56. It was also enough to cause the indicators to begin moving higher before ever reaching oversold although the stochastic has still yet to begin turning around for a bullish crossover. So while this move was encouraging it's still not my preferred swing trade buy entry.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 1958.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The selling resumed on Friday with typical triple witching madness on huge volume even for an options expiration day that sent just about everything lower leaving the charts with awash in a sea of red with some candles that changed things in interesting ways. So let's move on to the last full week of September and see if we can start making some calls again now that we have the Fed and op-ex out of the way.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's tall inverted hammer by dumping 290 points on a tall red candle. That was enough to drop it right out of its most recent rising RTC for a bearish setup. The indicators all continued falling from overbought and the stochastic has now completed a clear bearish crossover. So there's nothing at all bullish looking about this chart for Monday.

The VIX:  Somewhat surprisingly perhaps on Friday given all the market chaos the VIX did rise but only 5.39%. And it did that on a small gap-up red spinning top. The indicators remain oversold but not dramatically so and we do now seem to have a completed bullish stochastic crossover. However that's in conflict with the reversal warning from the candles so overall I can't call this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.41%. On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's tall inverted hammer with its worst loss in nearly two weeks. That sent the indicators while moving lower off overbought. But they're still a long way from oversold. It was also enough of a move to send us out of a rising RTC for a bearish setup. And the new overnight seems to be continuing that trend with some further losses so there's nothing really bullish about this chart tonight .

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1987.00 to 1958.25.  ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  After a nasty fall on Thursday the dollar gapped down early Friday but then spent rest of the day climbing back up to retrace half of Thursday's losses on a classic bullish piercing pattern. The stochastic remains threaded out at oversold levels but the indicators now look to have bottomed at oversold and are rising again. So this chart looks higher on Monday.

Euro:  And similarly on Friday the euro put in a dark cloud cover on a wide-ranging lopsided spinning top that finished by retracing half of Thursday's gains for a close at 1.1368. The new Sunday overnight seems to be confirming the bearish candle with a big gap down as indicators continue to fall off of overbought. So it looks fairly certain that the euro will close lower on Monday.

Transportation:  Friday's chart of the trans looks just about exactly like the Dow so everything I wrote about the Dow applies here too. There's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       6           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

Historically September is just a terrible month and this coming week is the worst week in September with the Dow being down 19 of the last 24 years according to The Stock Trader's Almanac. And right now it doesn't look like this year is going to be any different . Tonight all the charts look bearish so it looks like I'm just going to have to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Once again last Friday Verizon joined the rest of the lemmings diving off the cliff. It dropped 1.46% on a tall red candle that broke support around 44.68. But even with that the indicators are still not yet oversold and the stochastic is a long way from even beginning a bullish crossover. o even after three straight days of losses this dog is still not a swing trade buy.