Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain..
• ES pivot 1405.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Ouch.  That's what I get for trying to second-guess the market.  Instead of a gain, we got the biggest drop in the Dow since July 20th, cratering 115 points as worsening unemployment numbers trumped housing news and anything out of Europe.  Doh!  Chalk this one up to the What Was I Thinking department.  Oh well, let's just move on and see if I can do any better for Friday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Today's big dump took the Dow outside the left edge of the descending RTC, which is fairly unusual and can sometimes signal that a trend reversal is on the way.  It also brought the indicators very near to oversold and put the stochastic into a perfect position from which to start forming a bullish crossover, probably in a day or two.

The VIX:  I blew this one too.  Yesterday's spinning top was canceled in resolute fashion today as the VIX piled on 5.63% to clearly establish a new rising RTC. Indicators are now near, but not quite to overbought levels, so at least a bit of upside might remain here on Friday.

Market index futures: Like last night, tonight all three futures are up a bit at 1:24 AM EDT with ES higher by 0.07%.  It looks like I ignored the RTC at my own peril last night.  After yesterday's candle gave us a bearish trigger, today was the bearish payoff with a tall red candle for ES that took it right back to the consolidation area from two weeks ago.  But in so doing, it also pulled the indicators a lot closer to oversold, though we're probably still a day or two away from that.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1410.25 to 1405.33.  After breaking under the old level just before the open today, we remain below the new umber, but by only half the distance.  Once again, I'd keep an eye on the pivot.  Had I been up at 8:30 this morning, that would have canceled my bullish call for Wednesday.

Dollar index: Today the dollar gave up another 0.17% on a morning star doji that just touched its 200 day MA.  With indicators now well into oversold territory and a stochastic lower than it's been since last April, I'd say we have a chance of moving higher on Friday.

Euro: Meanwhile, the euro continued to rise, although the gains have been narrowing for three days now. And in fact the newly forming overnight candle is now down by 0.06%.  And importantly, the stochastic is forming a bearish crossover, implying the likelihood of a lower euro Friday.

Transportation: At least I got this part right when I said "I'm betting on more downside to come here on Thursday".  as the trans delivered a 1.03% drop on a long red candle that stopped dead on the 200 day MA.  But even this drop was just the bearish trigger and with indicators only now coming off overbought, I'd say we're likely to see lower here again on Friday.  It has been the pattern this year that once the trans touch the third rail of the 200 MA, they go lower the next day.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                          average  points

April   7      9      2                    .438
May    10      7      3           2        .632  
June    8      6      6           1        .600     632
July   11      2      6           1        .857     917
August  7      5      4           1        .615     -67
     And the winner is...

I think today's declines kind of cleared the air a bit.  The indicators are now right around the levels from which the last five short term bottoms occurred, and there are a few technical signs of a reversal out there too.  For example, the NH/NL index hit 43 today.  The last time this happened was August 2nd - and the next day was up big.

Mostly because of this, and even though the candlesticks don't show it yet, I am going to guess that Friday will be a turnaround day, putting in some sort of hammer or doji, to be followed by some actual gains in the early part of next week.  Because of this, I can only call Friday uncertain.  I will add that if ES manages to break above its pivot before noon, that greatly increases the odds of a positive close.  I am still holding my SDS, but if we don't continue lower on Friday, I will be getting out.


ES Fantasy Trader

Last night I was toying with the idea of taking a speculative long out on ES.  Tonight I'm very glad I didn't.
Portfolio stats: the account now remains at $168,500 after 58 trades (44 wins, 14 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we're standing aside again, mainly because I think we're too close to a bottom to make the risk/reward worthwhile, but I'm not yet seeing the reversal and I don't want to catch this particular falling knife.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.
 

Thursday just maybe higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher, very low confidence..
• ES pivot 1410.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

What an odd day.  It began decidedly negative as befits all the bearish indicators on the charts.  But the traders must have enjoyed their lunches because at 1 PM we started moving back up and while the Dow did finish down 31, the SPX managed to eke out the barest of gains while the Nasdaq ended a decent 0.21% in the green. Now it's time to head back to the charts to see just what the heck's going on here.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: I did call the Dow lower today but I'll admit this isn't the way I figured.  What was looking quite bearish last night now has a distinctly different cast to it.  Today's action left us with a hammer that closed right in the middle of last week's consolidation range.  It also curiously flattened out the indicators.  Looking at the hourly bars, we have a bullish RTC breakout that occurred at 2 PM.  The conventional wisdom says there's still lower to go here, but I'm not so sure now.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "we could see more upside to the VIX on Wednesday" but while the VIX did end up 0.6%, it was on an anemic small gap-up spinning top.  Not the sort of thing that inspires confidence in further upside.  In fact, the indicators are now very close to being overbought.  At this point, I'd say it's not out of the question that the VIX could actually move lower on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are up at 1: 07AM EDT with ES higher by 0.28%.  After putting in a tall doji today, the fourth reversal candle in a row, the developing candle seems to be confirming the end of a downtrend that was just getting rolling.  This is not the overnight behavior of a market that wants to continue lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1415.08 to 1410.25.  We broke above the old number at 9 PM and this now puts us even higher above the new value, so that's a positive sign.

Dollar index: We got another disconnect in the dollar today.  With the Dow dropping 0.23%, the dollar also fell, by 0.52%, blowing right through the lower BB and reaching very close to the 200 day MA on the $USDUPX.  This leaves us just oversold but without a bullish stochastic crossover just yet.  So it's premature to say that the dollar might rally on Thursday.

Euro: Oddly enough, the dollar's drop wasn't exactly mirrored in the euro, which did post a gain but now seems to be reaching a top, being highly overbought on its indicator and having hit and broken through its upper BB today.  On this basis alone, I'm not sure how much more upside the euro has left here, not exactly encouraging for our market.

Transportation: I called the trans lower last night and they obliged with a respectable 0.49% drop.  This took us out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup and also completed a bearish RTC crossover.  I'm betting on more downside to come here on Thursday.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                          average  points

April   7      9      2                    .438
May    10      7      3           2        .632  
June    8      6      6           1        .600     632
July   11      2      6           1        .857     917
August  7      4      4           1        .667      48


     And the winner is...

The ebb and flow of the market has changed.  From the middle of June to the end of July, we were making very nice symmetrical waves up and down.  That pattern broke down at the start of August.  Our last advance after a multi-day decline was on August 3rd.  That followed a hammer, just as we have now.  It happened when the indicators were still all overbought, just as they are now.  And it caught a lot of people, me included, by surprise.  And right now a lot of people are calling for more downside.  But something just doesn't feel right about the current decline.  I'll note too that there's going to be some news coming out on Greece on Thursday and while I think that Greece in general is a lost cause, it seems that lately the smallest shred of positive news or rumor around Greece is met with a positive reaction from the market.

So tonight I'm going to go out on a limb - no, way out on a limb - no, make that waaaaaaaaay out on a limb and gingerly call Thursday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

As I watched last night's trade progress late this morning I became concerned that ES didn't seem to be really trending down.  Not willing to stand in the way of the uncertainty of the FOMC minutes, I decided to pull the trigger over lunch for a 3.75 point profit.  I left a bit on the table but was glad I did after seeing ES reverse later in the day and finish higher.  And it sure beats watching a winner turn into a loser.

Portfolio stats: the account now rises to $168,500 after 58 trades (44 wins, 14 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we're just going to stand aside.  I know I'm calling the market higher tomorrow but that's a high risk call - too risky for my tastes to put big money down on ES.  Reminder: you can follow these trades live on Twitter @nightowltrader.

BOT    10    ES    false    SEP12 Futures     1407.00    USD    GLOBEX    12:28:58

SLD    10    ES    false    SEP12 Futures     1410.75    USD    GLOBEX    AUG 21 19:35:29

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower, medium confidence..
• ES pivot 1415.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader going short at 1410.75.

Column of the Day

What Ayn Rand Taught Paul Ryan , by Michael Kinsley on Bloomberg.com today.  A very funny Ayn Rand send-up.  The Night Owl gives it four hoots.

Recap

Last night I thought we'd be in for another doji day today but that was not to be as instead we got a red candle that confirmed yesterday's dragonfly doji and took us right back down to the 13,200 area that has served as resistance last week but is now support.  At least this wasn't more of this sideways noodling around.  No we have something to work with, so let's get to it.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Well unlike last time around the Dow did not keep us waiting for over a week to decide which way to go.  Today it clearly chose lower, shedding 68 points to kill a developing trading range.  More importantly, this decline sent the indicators off top-dead-center and down the slope from overbought, as well as completing the bearish stochastic crossover I mentioned last night.  Right now this chart is definitely looking toppy.

The VIX:  I guess I was wrong about the VIX too.  Instead of going lower, it gained a significant 7.13% today to bring us just above our recent resistance.  With this tall green candle, indicators just coming off oversold and rising futures, it now looks like we could see more upside to the VIX on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are down at 1:20 AM EDT with ES lower by 0.28%.  Today's ES candle was a big spinning top with an extended upper shadow, making three dojis in a row.  Now the overnight seems to be confirming that.  Last night I made a big mention of the 1415.50 level as being the make or break for ES.  We gave that up early this afternoon and it's been downhill ever since.  This now give us the bearish RTC trigger, one of the best technicals I've got.  This chart is looking nothing but lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot bumps up from 1414.08 to 1415.08.  With ES running under since mid-afternoon, this only leaves us a bit more under the new level, a bearish sign.

Dollar index: Here's an interesting divergence.  While the Dow dropped half a percent today, the dollar also fell and impressive fashion, dumping 0.70% on a gap-down red candle that blew right through recent support and took it clear to its lower BB.  This is the sort of action that would lead me to expect some sort of gap-filling or DCB on Wednesday.

Euro: And today the euro put in a tall green candle for its biggest gains since August 3rd.  And as the dollar moved to it slower BB, the euro moved to its upper BB.That leaves it quite overbought and suggests the possibility of moving lower on Wednesday.

Transportation: The trans, seemingly not having gotten the message yet, rose 0.07% today but did it on a wide-ranging doji, the second in a row.  With indicators that are now way overbought, a flattening out of the recent uptrend and a stochastic gearing up for a bearish crossover, my bet's for the short side on Wednesday.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                          average  points

April   7      9      2                    .438
May    10      7      3           2        .632  
June    8      6      6           1        .600     632
July   11      2      6           1        .857     917
August  6      4      4           1        .636      17
     And the winner is...

I am concerned that the market dropped today at the same time as the dollar.  Usually, they move in opposition.  This failure to move higher in the face of a lower currency raises some red flags.  We're also startig to see some more clearly defined bearish signs in the charts.  Tonight I am definitely not feeling the love and took out some SDS as a hedge at 14.15 earlier today.  Today's drop did not feel like sideways trending and I think we now have the clarity I was looking for last night.  Therefore I'm calling Wednesday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $166,625 after 57 trades (43 wins, 14 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we're going short at 1410.75 on an unusual early evening entry.  I believe we're now seeing an edge that is tradeable.  Reminder: you can follow these trades live on Twitter @nightowltrader.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.
 

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1414.08.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Well last night I wrote "Monday is going to be another one of these doji days like we saw last week" and sure enough the Dow delivered a nice dragonfly doji, ending the day down just 3.5 points.  While the bears made a valiant effort early on to knock 'em down, the bulls battled back - but were unable to move past the resistance that marks the highs for the year.  So is this a top or are we back to last week's sideways motion?  Let's check out the charts.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The dragonfly doji is certainly a reversal indicator, though not the greatest, particularly in the current environment when we've seen so many reversal warnings come to naught.  After crying wolf so often, this market will have to show me the downturn before I believe it.  And with a bullish stochastic crossover just completed, I don't see any real indications of a big drop on the way here.

The VIX:  Like the Dow, the VIX gave us a doji, this one a spinning top that gained 4.24%.  Coming inside yesterday's red candle, this is pure indecision.  I though we were going lower today, but that option still isn't off the table for Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are up just a bit at 1:12 AM EDT with ES higher by 0.05%.  Here's another daily chart with a doji on it.  Of interest here though is that while the overnight is slightly positive so far, the new candle has taken us right to the very edge of the rising RTC.  Moving below 1415.50 on Tuesday will cause a bearish setup while moving above this number will keep us inside the RTC.  Along the same lines, the stochastic is trying to form a bearish crossover.  A move lower in ES will complete it, while a move higher will cancel (or at least delay) it.  Tomorrow will tell this tale.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot ticks down from 1414.25 to 1414.08.  With such a small change and continued sideways action in the overnight, we remain in bullish mode here but need to continue watching for signs of a break below the pivot.

Dollar index: The dollar remains mired in a range on the $USDUPX between 56.83 and 57.20.  Down 0.2% today, it's sort of just bouncing around those two levels like a ping pong ball in a paint mixer.  We did get a bearish engulfing pattern and a bearish stochastic crossover, for what they're worth.  So more dollar declines are possible, but far from certain.

Euro: Meanwhile, the euro seems to be forming an ascending triangle.It looks nearly complete which means that an upside breakout could happen Tuesday.  After nice gains earlier on Monday, it continues to rise in the overnight.  This would be good for stocks.

Transportation: And to cap it all off, one last doji in the trans - a spinning top that lost just 0.08% on Monday.  But we do have a stochastic that looks like it's just about to execute a bearish crossover and a very elevated RSI at 96.39.  So it looks like the downside is favored here, but whether that will happen on Tuesday is impossible to say.

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.  Here's the updated cumulative list for this year:

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl SPX  Accuracy

  1  1/3        46         21        +     1258   1/1

  2  1/9        56         37        +     1278   2/2

  3  1/17       41         33        +     1289   3/3

  4  1/23       46         32        +     1315   4/4

  5  1/30       48         31        +     1316   5/5

  6  2/6        56         30        +     1345   6/6

  7  2/13       48         31        +     1343   7/7

  8  2/21       44         32        +     1361   8/8

  9  2/27       48         24        +     1366   9/9

 10  3/5        43         26        +     1370  10/10

 11  3/12       46         32        +     1371  11/11

 12  3/19       46         29        +     1404  11/12

 13  3/26       39         29        +     1397  11/13

 14  4/2        42         21        +     1408  11/14

 15  4/9        25         46        -     1398  12/15

 16  4/16       26         48        -     1370  13/16
 17  4/23       30         48        -     1379  14/17

 18  4/30       44         32        +     1403  14/18

 19  5/7        23         50        -     1350  15/19

 20  5/14       32         44        -     1353  16/20

 21  5/21       30         52        -     1295  16/21

 22  5/29       35         42        -     1318  16/22

 23  6/4        32         48        -     1278  16/23

 24  6/11       28         40        -     1326  16/24

 25  6/18       39         26        -     1343  16/25

 26  6/25       38         46        -     1335  16/26

 27  7/2        41         40        -     1362  16/27

 28  7/9        42         38        -     1355  16/28

 29  7/16       44         32        -     1357  16/29

 30  7/23       33         42        -     1363  16/30

 31  7/30       43         22        +     1386 

 32  8/6        52         28        +     1391  

 33  8/13       43         21        +     1406 

 34  8/20       46         31        +     1418

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that my bearish call on 7/23 was wrong, the S&P now being higher than then. I'm using the column "Accuracy" to track my calls.  So now I'm 16 for 30.  After an impressive start this year, my monthly calls have now been wrong for 11 weeks running.   For the record, I voted bullish again this week based on my reading of the SPX monthly and weekly charts.

This week both bullish and bearish sentiment increased, as some people got off the fence.  But the big change was that bearish sentiment increased 10 full points, but we remain bullish on the whole.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                          average  points

April   7      9      2                    .438
May    10      7      3           2        .632  
June    8      6      6           1        .600     632
July   11      2      6           1        .857     917
August  6      3      4           1        .700      85


     And the winner is...

After one big pop last week, the market seems to have gone right back into its waiting game.  All the factors that were in play then are in play again.  We've still got the same resistance we had last night and the same lack of immediate downside warnings.  We're seeing dojis all over the place but they're not counting for much, not tonight at least.  However, we are on the edge of a few important RTC's, so I think Tuesday should provide some more clarity here.  There are certainly some bearish indicators out there, but not enough for me to commit to the down side just yet.

So in the absence of a definitive indication one way or the other, I'm once again going to guess that we're in for another doji day and therefore that makes Tuesday uncertain.  The wild card of course is the FOMC minutes.  There's never any telling how the market is going to react to that but my personal wild guess is that they're not going to have a big effect this time.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $166,625 after 57 trades (43 wins, 14 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.   Since like last night I don't really see an edge either way tonight, we're just going to stand aside again.  Patience is still a virtue.

CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.
 

Monday uncertain - small positive bias

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain - small positive bias.
• ES pivot 1414.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

As I was thinking, Friday did in fact move higher after Thursday's breakout, with the Dow adding another 25 points and keeping us above that narrow sideways motion that plagued us for over a week.  The question now is how much gas is left in the tank to continue higher on Monday.  Let's run the charts up the flagpole and see who salutes.


The technicals (daily)

The Dow: While a 25 point move might not seem like much, it was important in two ways: first because the Dow did not slip back into its trading range capped for so long at 13,200, and second because it leaves us precisely at the highs of the year, a resistance line that's already been tested and rejected four times in a row.  Is the fifth time the charm?  If we compare the technical environment of those tests to the current one, we see that we're in better shape now than back then, particularly with respect to OBV as I mentioned last week.  Money flow is also a lot lower now than then.  We also have that funny bullish crossover on the stochastic from a high level, now completed.


That said, the weekly chart shows some weakness in its indicators.  They're all quite overbought now and RSI and momentum have actually already turned down.  The weekly candle is also a hanging man, though that hasn't been particularly reliable.  All in all, we're entering a critical juncture for the Dow.  Unfortunately, with everyone waiting on Jackson Hole, it's not clear that we're going to get the answers we're looking for before then.


The VIX:  It wasn't completely clear, but last Thursday night I claimed that "the VIX might go lower Friday.".  And that's what it did, dropping another 5.88% to close at 13.45, even lower than the 13.7 we saw earlier last week and again a level not matched since June 2007. With the bullish RTC breakout canceled, the lower BB falling away, and a bearish stochastic crossover in the futures, there's no reason I can see why we can't move still lower in the VIX, even from these levels.


Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are essentially flat at 1:38 AM EDT with ES lower by 0.04%., YM exactly unchanged, and NQ up 0.02%.  Friday's ES candle was a stubby hanging man that doesn't count for much.  The important thing is that we remain in a rising RTC and have a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  With no real follow-through in the overnight so far, I suppose ES could go either way, but I'm not expecting a major fall on Monday.


ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises again from 1410.08 to 1414.00 even. With ES flat in the overnight so far, this leaves us barely above the new level.  In fact ES just tested it, touching the pivot at 1:10 AM and bouncing off.  Assuming that holds, this is a bullish sign, but when you're this close, you have to watch the pivot closely for signs of a breakdown.


Dollar index: On Friday, the dollar surprisingly gained 0.30% on a bullish harami.  But this chart remains disjointed and I can't make much sense of it technically, so we move right along to...


Euro: the euro, which also gave us a bullish harami on Friday, but seems more inclined to move higher on Monday, and is indeed already up 0.09% in the overnight.

Transportation: Where the Dow gained 0.19% on Friday, the trans gained 0.52% on a solid green marubozu giving us a three white soldiers pattern, generally a pretty good bullish sign.  And although we're now overbought, the stochastic here has yet to even begin flattening out for a bearish crossover.  More gains possible here.



Accuracy (daily calls):

Month right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                          average  points

April   7      9      2                    .438
May    10      7      3           2        .632  
June    8      6      6           1        .600     632
July   11      2      6           1        .857     917
August  5      3      4           1        .667      85
     And the winner is...

This is a tough one.  I'm not really seeing a lot of bearish indications on any of the charts.  However, we are now right up against some significant resistance in the form of the 2012 highs: 13,276 for the Dow and 1420 for the SPX.  The previous attempts to break these levels were rejected.  We're in better shape, technically to mount an assault now than back then.  However, the market seems to be in a holding pattern waiting on more nuggets of wisdom from the Fed.  There's also some signs that the TLT may be bottoming, which would be bad for stocks.

My guess is that Monday is going to be another one of these doji days like we saw last week, possibly with a slight positive bias, so I'm going to have to make the official call as uncertain.

My general feeling is that there is in fact not enough gas in the tank right now to successfully break through this resistance on Monday and that the market is going to have to back off before taking another shot at it - but that's getting ahead of ourselves.


ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $166,625 after 57 trades (43 wins, 14 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.   Since I don't really see an edge either way tonight, we're just going to stand aside again.  Patience is a virtue.


CUA (Commonly Used Acronyms)

BB - Bollinger Bands
DCB - Dead Cat Bounce
MA - Moving Average
RTC - Regression Trend Channel
YTD - Year To Date

Disclaimer: (My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction.  All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style.  Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks.  Act accordingly.