Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday depends on ES pivot.
  • ES pivot 2260.42.  Waiting for a break either above or below..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap

Once again on Monday we got another one of these days with a fairly large range but little to show for it at the ed of the day as the Dow fell just 27 points.  No wonder I just have to keep making "uncertain" calls.  We're pretty much lost in the noise at this point.  About the only thing that could be said about Monday was that after three days of sideways motion, we're finally on the edge of a choppy descending RTC.  And we have touched the lower BB for six days in a row.  Does any of this finally spell trend reversal?  We go to the charts as aways to see what we can see for Tuesday.

The technicals

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "There is now nothing bullish about this chart.".  But on Monday the VIX did manage a 2% gain, though it did it on a fat red spinning top as a bearish harami.  That's quite in keeping with the disjointed nature of the market so far this year.  And with a freshly completed bearish stochastic crossover with two red candles in a row, I now change my opinion and state that the VIX looks lower from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:44 AM EST with ES down 0.07%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2266.17 to 2260.42.  As befits the ongoing uncertainty in the market, ES is as I write this sitting exactly on top of its new pivot so this indicator is neither bullish nor bearish at the moment.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       7           0       0.643    170


     And the winner is...

It's been interesting ever since the election and it occur to me that this is the first time in the six years I've been writing the Night Owl that we've been through a change in presidency here in the US.  I suppose it's not unreasonable to expect that this sort of uncertainty is the norm in these situations.  The market seems to change course every time the Donald gets the urge to start Twitting.

In any event, on Tuesday we got a few reversal candles on the charts but nothing terribly definitive.  However, since ES is sitting exactly on top of its new pivot, I'm going to take the opportunity to make a conditional call.  If ES breaks above its new pivot and remains there by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks below and stays below by mid-morning, we close lower.  Hey, it's all I got.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.