Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2079.25.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ very near a swing trade buy.
Recap

Ah, Turnaround Tuesday to the rescue as the Dow finally snapped an ugly six session losing streak in style with a nice 190 point pop.  Thank the Fed, the Chinese, whoever, doesn't matter.  The bottom line is that the technicals worked.  Now we move on to Wednesday but we'll cut to the chase right here - this Wednesday is a Fed day and it is my policy to always call Fed days uncertain.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's 190 point pop on Tuesday was enough to bounce it right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup and finally give us a long-awaited bullish stochastic crossover.  And with indicators still oversold, this chart looks bullish.

The VIX:  On Tuesday the VIX nicely completed its bearish evening star with a big 13.85% plunge, completely giving up the 200 day MA on a tall red candle.  Indicators remain overbought and the stochastic is within inches of a bearish crossover so this chart looks lower to me Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:10 AM EDT with ES down 0.12%.  On Tuesday ES did very well, retracing all of Monday's losses plus half of last Friday's.  That was also enough to solidly complete a bullish stochastic crossover   So I have to think this chart remains bullish, though the sag in the overnight suggests we could be in for a pause on Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2067.25 to 2079.25. Despite overnight weakness so far ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Tuesday the dollar continued its stair step decline by actually rising 0.27% but remaining in a two-week downtrend.  That may be about to end though because the indicators are now oversold and the stochastic has finally begun to curve around for a bullish crossover all while indicators are still oversold.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "chances are good the euro goes lower on Tuesday".  And so they were with the euro falling back to 1.1049 on an almost-dark cloud cover red marubozu.  That was enough to curve around the stochastic which is now real close to a bearish crossover.  The overnight is trying to rally but the daily trend seems more to suggest continued lower.

Transportation:  The trans had a huge day Tuesday, erasing thee days of losses in one swell foop, sending the indicators off oversold and forming a new bullish stochastic crossover.  We're actually near resistance now but there's still some room to run and in any case there's no bearish signs on this chart right now.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       9      1       5           2       0.917   1156


     And the winner is...

As a matter of policy, I am calling Wednesday uncertain.  Although someone on CNBC made the interesting point that on Fed days lacking a press conference (as this one is), the market is down 90% of the time.  And so far anyway, the futures action seem to be supporting that but it's really all just going to come down to whatever Auntie Janet has to say.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I was thinking VZ was near a swing buy and on Tuesday it did post a small six cent gain but on an odd red hammer.  Still, we remain quite oversold and right on the edge of the descending RTC, and two hammers are better than one so basically nothing's changed.  We're near a buy but I can't quite bless it just yet.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2067.25.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ very near a swing trade buy.
Recap

Last night I wouldn't commit to continued lower because I thought the selling was about over.    I was wrong.  It was looking good for some sort of doji early on but then the selling just kicked back in as the Dow posted yet another triple digit loss.  It seems that China is now the new Greece.  Serves 'em right for sending us all that deadly drywall, toxic toothpaste, and poison pet food.

Is this sell-off ever going to end?  Let's check the charts to see.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow just picked up right back where it left off on Friday with more selling, this time very nearly down to its lower BB.  It was enough to drive RSI down to 1.97.  The last time we were lower than this was November 15th .. 2012.  And that very day set off a year and a half long rally.  This is simply ridiculously oversold.  Also the stochastic hit its lowest level of the year on Monday and is curving around nicely for a bullish crossover.

The VIX:  On Monday the VIX took a monster gap-up 13.54% pop to vault right over its 200 day MA but did it with a perfect doji thus giving us a classic evening star in the making.  Indicators are also now extremely overbought (RSI=92.87) so I'm laying better than even odds that the VIX goes lower Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:48 AM EDT with ES up 0.44%.  ES just kept falling on Monday and that drove the indicators extremely oversold (RSI=8).  The overnight rally so far is bending the stochastic around very close to a bullish crossover.  Right now this chart is looking bullish and ready to reverse.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2083.75 to 2067.25.  And that, plus an overnight rally, was finally enough to put ES back above its pivot so this indicator now turns bullish for the first time in a while.

Dollar index:  The dollar continued its week-long slide on Monday with a gap-down 0.76% loss on a lop-sided spinning top.  Indicators are now oversold but the stochastic hasn't begun its curve around for a bullish crossover.  So there's a reversal warning here but one that requires confirmation.

Euro:  And similarly the euro on Monday continued its week-long rally closing this time at 1.1083.  Indicators are now overbought and the euro is giving up some of Monday's gains in the overnight.  That's causing the stochastic to bend around for a bearish crossover so I'd say chances are good the euro goes lower on Tuesday.

Transportation:  The trans also went lower on Monday but formed a nice doji star below Friday's action thus setting up a bullish morning star.  Indicators are now oversold and the stochastic is primed for a bullish crossover so a reversal looks like a good possibility here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       8      1       4           2       0.909    966


     And the winner is...

We're now seeing a number of decent reversal sign on the charts, finally.  And we've got some extremely oversold conditions with the Dow in particular at multi-year RSI lows.  Also, the SPX Hi-Lo indicator hit 8.47 on Monday, its lowest level of the year and below levels from which rallies usually start.  Finally, the futures are up non-trivially in the overnight.  All in all, I think there are enough factors in alignment to warrant calling Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ hit YTD support on Monday with a red spinning top as it remains in a steep descending RTC.  Indicators are now rather oversold and the stochastic is curving around nicely for a bullish crossover.  This one looks real close to a buy now.  All we need now is some confirmation on Tuesday.  Right now I'm fairly confident this one is going higher on Tuesday.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2083.75.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Huh - I'll admit I was nervous last week when I called Friday lower because I've seen it fairly often lately that the market will take a completely unexpected reversal from where you'd think it will be going  But that wasn't the case this time and the Dow dropped another 163 points on Friday.  That was an interesting move as we shall examine entering the final week of July.

The technicals

The Dow:  Breaking the 200 day MA as the Dow did last Thursday is never a good sign, and Friday was the proof with another triple digit loss.  That makes it four significant ones down in a row on a real steep (Pearson's=0.983) descending RTC.  We are in fact now within striking distance of the lower BB at 17,429 and while RSI is now quite oversold the stochastic has yet to curve around for a bullish crossover so I'm not calling the Dow higher yet.

The VIX:  Last Thursday I wrote that "this one looks higher again Friday.".  And that looked about right with another 8.7% gain, though on an inverted hammer.  But indicators are only half way to overbought so it's still too early to call this chart lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 1:53 AM EDT with ES up just 0.04%.  Last week's losses just accelerated on Friday with ES right back down to 2077.50.  But that was finally enough to send the indicators quite oversold though money flow and OBV are now in a consistent week-long downtrend and the stochastic has yet to being curving around for a bullish crossover.  Now it is true that ES is forming a small star in the overnight so far, but it's still early so I still can't call ES higher on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2101.25 to 2083.75. That still leaves ES substantially below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar looked too confusing for me last Thursday.  And after Friday's candle I'm still confused.  A scant 0.12% gain on a tall red, almost marubozu candle.  And despite a gain the indicators continued lower.  So now I'm going to guess there's more downside in store on Monday.

Euro:  The euro looked similarly opaque last Thursday and it's just as well since it put in a perfect doji star on Friday, ending right where it began.  The new Sunday overnight is guiding lower though and nearing the right edge of the rising RTC .  And with indicators near overbought I'd say the next move is more likely lower than higher.

Transportation:  Last Thursday I wrote "there's nothing bullish about this chart".  And I'd say a 0.67% loss on Friday was definitely not bullish.  Indicators continue falling and no reversal sign in sight so I can't call the trans higher yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       8      1       4           2       0.909    966

     And the winner is...

We wrung a lot of froth out of the market last week and that drove the SPX Hi-Lo indicator very low, near levels from which reversals come.  The same is true of the charts - we're close to but not quite at reversal points.  In fact it's looking to me like Monday might be a doji day with a hammer or perhaps a star.  At this point I'm hesitant to call it lower again just because it looks like the selling could be about exhausted so I will content myself with calling Monday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

It's good I stayed away from VZ last Friday because it got caught up in the general market malaise right back down to its lower BB on a red marubozu.  We're now nearing a turning point but not quite there  so no buy just yet.

Friday, July 24, 2015

Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2101.25.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Bah - I blew it.  The Dow did not go up Thursday, it went down.  Serves me right for getting fixated on the futures instead of paying attention to the charts which as I even mentioned, were looking pretty bearish.  And there weren't even any Greeks to blame it on.  What ever happened to them?  They got some loan so they could pay an earlier loan and then seemingly fell right over the event horizon.  Oh well - good riddance.  Ahem, anyway, moving right along, let's see if we can't come up with a more balanced approach to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "I can't call the Dow higher from here.".  Too bad I didn't factor that into my call because the Dow did go lower, with another triple digit loss Thursday.  And ominously, on Thursday the Dow went negative for the year again and also broke down through its 200 day MA again.  RSI has gone oversold but the stochastic is nowhere near a bullish crossover.  So with three black crows flapping about, this chart just looks ugly.

The VIX:  Despite a bearish engulfing pattern last night I didnt' want to call the VIX lower and that was good because it rose 4.29% Thursday on a bullish piercing pattern.  The indicators are all rising and now just of oversold so this one looks higher again Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 12: AM EDT with ES down just 0.04% but NQ up the same amount.  On Thursday ES had its worst day since July 8th.  So much for last night's doji star.  We now have a new descending RTC going and the indicators are all falling off overbought and there's no sign of a rally in the overnight so there is just nothing bullish about this chart.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2107.42 to 2101.25. And that wasn't enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator is now back to bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "I have to think there's more downside coming despite Wednesday's gains."  And that was true too as the dollar gapped down for a half-percent loss on a green inverted hammer.  That's a reversal candle but not supported by the indicators which are all in retreat and only halfway from overbought down to oversold.  So I can't really call this one for Friday.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote "it's possible the euro could move higher on Thursday.". And that possibility came true with a jump past resistance to close at 1.1006.  So we now have a new rising RTC established along with rising indicators nowhere near overbought.  That all looks bullish except for a non-trivial sell-off in the new overnight so I'm staying away from this one for Friday.

Transportation:  Holy moly!  After just three small down days in the past two weeks the trans got slamma-jamma'ed on Thursday, tanking over 2% on a tall tall red marubozu.  That peaked all the indicators and sent them on their way lower back towards oversold so there's nothing bullish about this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       7      1       4           2       0.900    803


     And the winner is...

I dunno - things are looking pretty ugly tonight.  And since there are no technical reversal signs on any chart I can see I guess I'll just have to call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Well at least I was right to stay away from VZ last night.  Despite a hammer and a lower BB touch it managed to go lower on Thursday anyway, this time with a spinning top and yes, another lower BB touch.  So with indicators still not yet oversold that leaves us right where  we were last night - still no buy.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 2107.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

The markets moved lower Wednesday as I expected.  Now we're left to figure out when the selling will end for the next move higher.  And only the charts can tell us that so let's take a gander.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow lost 0.38% on a stubby red hammer.  That left the indicators just barely off overbought and the stochastic moving lower.  This really isn't a reversal sign so I can't call the Dow higher from here.

The VIX:  What the heck - this is like the third time in a week the VIX has moved in positive correlation with the market.  I don't think I've ever seen that.  Wednesday gave us a 0.82% loss on a bearish engulfing pattern.  But the indicators remain quite oversold and the stochastic has completed a bullish crossover.  So with teh candles and chars in opposition, there's no call here tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:15 AM EDT with ES up  0.19%.  On Wednesday ES put n a classic gap-down doji star.  And despite indicators falling off overbought, the overnight is gapping back up again in a bullish morning star pattern.  That makes this chart now look bullish for Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2115.42 to 2107.42.  But this time that was enough to bring ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now changes back to bullish.

Dollar index:  Sigh - once again he dollar fooled me on Wednesday by rising 0.31% instead of falling as I thought.  The resulting candle is indeterminate and the indicators continue moving lower off overbought.  It's also a bearish trigger on the recent rising RTC exit so I have to think there's more downside coming despite Wednesday's gains.

Euro:  And the euro on Wednesday was pretty much the mirror image of the dollar - down to 1.0912 on a stubby red spinning top but with rising indicators just off oversold.  The new overnight though is gapping higher non-trivially so it's possible the euro could move higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  The trans continued its up/down pattern on Wednesday with a 0.30% loss on a red hanging man at the top of Tuesday's candle.  Indicators are now moving lower so if anything this suggests continued lower on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       7      0       4           2       1.000    922


     And the winner is...

It's not completely clear and the charts are a bit ambivalent tonight but the one chart that does look unequivocally bullish is the futures (now forming a morning star) and I always hate going against the futures without a good reason.  So I guess that just leaves a call of Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

It's good I didn't commit to the tempting gap-down doji star in Tuesday's chart because VZ just sank another 1.11% on Wednesday, this time with a hammer that just tickled the lower BB.  That's also a reversal indicator but with indicators still only recently off overbought it's still not the ideal buy setup so once again I wait for confirmation before getting in.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday lower.
  • ES pivot 2115.42.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

This has been an "ah-choo" market for a while now.  It looks like it wants to sneeze but it just keeps going "ah...ah...ah" but never "choo".  Well we finally got the "choo" on Tuesday with the Dow dumping 181 points.  It was definitely looking toppy last night, but it had been looking toppy for a while now and it just refused to break.  Now that we've finally got it, let's see how that changes the picture for Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  After warning of impending doom for four straight days now we finally go the break on Tuesday with a 1% dump in the Dow.  Monday was the bearish RTC trigger and Tuesday was the payoff.  But even after all that the indicators are still oversold, and with a nicely completed bearish stochastic crossover I say there's still more selling in store on Wednesday.

The VIX:  Meanwhile the VIX continues to confound.  On Monday it was higher on a day the market was higher - on Tuesday it went lower on a day the market was lower.  Most bizarre.  Just looking at the candles though we now have a tall inverted hammer following an even taller doji star, but with indicators that remain highly oversold.  Go figure.  RTC-wise, it's a bullish trigger but everything's all bollixed up so no call here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are significantly lower  at 1:14 AM EDT with ES down  0.39%.  Last night I wrote that ES "definitely looking toppy to me here." as it fell out of a rising RTC for a bearish setup.  And the fall from the top came Tuesday with a big red hanging man and a bearish RTC trigger.   And with the new overnight gapping down even further this one is looking just plain ugly for Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily finally falls (for the first time in a while) from 2121.56 to 2115.42. That leaves ES well below its new pivot so this indicator turns decidedly bearish.

Dollar index:  After watching the dollar throw off topping warnings for days now I was reluctant to call it lower for Tuesday.  Too bad too because it fell 0.75% for its biggest daily loss in a month.  That's a clear exit of the rising RTC for a bearish setup and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover.  So this one now looks lower again on Wednesday.

Euro:  Last night, in the face of a long-running downtrend I wrote that "this would be as good a time as any for the euro to stage a rally."  And hey presto, it did, right back up to 1.0950 on Tuesday erasing two days of losses in one swell foop with a giant green marubozu and its biggest gain in a month.  That leaves us with a fresh bullish stochastic crossover and indicators that are still oversold so this one just looks higher again on Wednesday.

Transportation:  And finally more confusion as the trans gained 0.74% on a day the Dow was down for some nice bullish divergence.  There's no real trend here aside from up/down/up and mostly higher highs and higher lows.  Going by that and with overbought indicators, you'd guess the next move would be lower.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       6      0       4           2       1.000    854


     And the winner is...

On Tuesday we got the confirmat5ion of all the topping signals the market's been showing for several days now.  So with the charts all looking pretty bad, I'm going to go ahead and call Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I've been down on VZ for days now and on Tuesday I was finally vindicated as it dove a dramatic 2.35% on some negative news with a perfect gap-down doji star.  But that still leaves the indicators overbought, though they've now started lower.  So this is a reversal warning but I need confirmation before jumping in.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2121.58.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Though the charts were looking generally bearish last night I opted not to make that call, going with a conditional call instead.  Good thing too as ES made one brief failed attempt to break below its pivot at 10:05 AM and that was it.  Despite a late afternoon sell-off, the Dow still managed a 14 point gain.  So let's see where that all leaves us for Tuesday now.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow actually tried to break above Friday's highs but in the end failed.  So while we did get a green candle, it was a spinning top clinging to the lower end of Friday's candle.  This failure to break resistance along with a reversal warning and highly overbought indicators continues to make me think this chart looks lower.

The VIX:  I figured we were due for a move higher but wasn't sure it would be Monday.  Well it was, but with a 2.51% advance as a small doji star  it wasn't very convincing.  Still, indicators remain highly oversold and the stochastic is lying flat on the floor.  And with Monday giving us a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit I still have to think there's more upside to come.  Oh, and it was one of those unusual days when both the VIX and the market closed higher, indicative of some ongoing internal uncertainty.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed  at 12:58 AM EDT with ES up 0.02 % but YM down 0.03%.  On Monday ES pushed past resistance at 2118 only to stop again at resistance at 2122.  But its rising RTC is so steep this move led it right out of the channel for a bearish setup.  Indicators remain at extreme overbought and the overnight is guiding lower.  It's definitely looking toppy to me here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2117.17 to 2121.58. That still leaves ES above its new pivot but tonight it's just barely.  So this indicator remains ever so slightly bullish - for now.

Dollar index:  I wasn't ready to call the dollar lower last night and good thing too because ti rose another 0.18% on Monday.  That only made it more overbought and left it just shy of its upper BB.  Bottom line, we're in the same spot as last night - looks toppy but I can't call it lower just yet.

Euro:  The euro gapped down with a small doji star on Monday to close at 1.0837 as it continues to dribble down it slower BB and remain in a steep descending RTC.  Support at 1.0871 is now long gone but Monday's close is another support line so with indicators now very oversold this would be as good a time as any for the euro to stage a rally.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "this inverted hammer looks bearish to me."  And sure enough the trans dropped 0.36% on Monday with a second inverted hammer.  Indicators remain overbought, and the bearish stochastic crossover is holding so I don't think the selling is over yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       6      0       4           1       1.000    854


     And the winner is...

Looks like deja vu all over again here.  All the factors that were in play last night are still there only more so.  The market still looks overbought and toppy but I still can't yet definitively call it lower.  And once again, ES is sitting just above its pivot so I guess I'll just make another conditional call: if ES an stay above its pivot by mid-morning Tuesday we'll close higher.  If it breaks under, then we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Wow, VZ sure fooled me on Monday with a nice 1% gain.  But this one took it to its upper BB and left the indicators even more overbought.  I know it sounds like tape-fighting but I still can't get on board this bus.