Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain
  • ES pivot 2094.92.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade. 
Recap

Original Poster Switzerland Suiza Valais Old House Traditional Alps NatureLast night's conditional call worked nicely once again.  ES spent about two hours noodling about its pivot before heading south around 2:30 AM.  It then made a brief attempt to break above around 10:05 AM but that was a complete flop and hey presto, we closed lower.  QED.  The conditional call doesn't always work but it works often enough to be useful.  Tonight, the Night Owl is once again swamped by Real Life (TM) obligations so it's another Night Owl Lite night.  Hey, I don't get paid for this so you get what you get.

The technicals


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:47 AM EST with ES up 0.08%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2101.50 to 2094.92.  That now puts ES above its new pivot so this indicator is bullish.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756


     And the winner is...

Tonight we have a VIX that shot out of a descending RTC and looks like it's bottomed.  OTOH, the futures seem to be hanging in the in the overnight so far ad the first day of June is historically positive.  But both the Dow and SPX are hard up against resistance, extremely overbought, and about to form bearish stochastic crossovers.  Which all leaves quite the mixed picture indeed.  And that's enough for me to stay away from this one and call Wednesday uncertain.  Not the way I like to start the month but that's the best I can do at the moment.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday depends on ES pivot
  • ES pivot 2101.50.  No guidance..
  • Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade. 
Recap

Original Poster Switzerland Suiza Valais Old House Traditional Alps NatureLast Thursday night, if I can remember that far back, I called Friday higher if ES could remain above its new pivot.  Well it made a brief unsuccessful attempt to break under around 3 AM, but then that was it as it just drifted higher from there.  And we did indeed end the day higher.  Tonight we begin a holiday-shortened week and close out the month of May.  Since the data is three days old at this juncture, I'm going to do another Night Owl Lite as there's not much point in dissecting the low-volume charts way back from last Friday.

The technicals


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:32 AM EST with ES up 0.19%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2095.00 to 2101.50.  That leaves ES sitting exactly on top of its new pivot so this is one of those rare nights where we have no pivot guidance.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           3       0.800     756


     And the winner is...

With nothing but old charts to work from, traders still straggling in from their long weekend, and a short week ahead it's a difficult night to call.  But with ES sitting right on top of its new pivot, it's a good time once again to make another conditional call just like last Thursday night.  If ES breaks above its pivot and remains there by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks to the downside and stays there, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Friday, May 27, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday depends on ES pivot
  • ES pivot 2088.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade. 
Image result for memorial day
Memorial Day 2016
Recap

Last night we called the Dow lower for Thursday and that's what we got on a lower than average volume day good for s scant 23 point loss in the Dow.  Ah, I can already hear the helicopters warming up for their flights out the the Hamptons for the Memorial Day weekend.  In honor of this, we're skipping the detailed charts tonight and making it a Night Owl Lite nite as we round out the last week of May.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:53 AM EST with ES up just one tick. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again  from 2084.42 to 2088.00.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           2       0.786     756


     And the winner is...

On Thursday we got a number of reversal signs on the charts.  ES in particular is hard up against strong resistance and not too far from its daily pivot.  Becasue we haven't seen the actual turn yet, I'm going to try a conditional call: if ES manages to remain above its pivot by mid-morning Friday, we'll close higher.  If on the other hand it falls through by then. we close lower.

In any case I'm not expecting a lot of drama either way since a lot of  people are probably already thnking more about putting hot dogs on the grill than putting trades on the market.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Monday night and Happy Memorial Day!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.