Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2013.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap

Last night I decided to discount a bunch of 200 day MA crossings and call Tuesday higher anyway.  That proved to be a good move as the Dow retraced all of Monday's losses and then some with a nice 1.57% pop.  Having threaded yet another needle, let's move on to the final days of June to see what might be in store next.

But first, I've been meanign to point out the DF/DM indicator, something I first mentioend early this year.  I'd tell you exactly when, but Google's "Search" feature, like their spell-check isn't working.  Recall that there's an indicator (thanks to The Stock Traders Almanac)) which counts up the numebr of times we get a down Friday followed by a down Monday.  If that totals more than 10 by the end of the year, it's a bearish sign for the next year.  Last year ended with a DF/DM of 11.  That was part of my pessimistic outlook for 2016.  So far that's proven to be the case (though I admit the danger of declaring victory early).  Following last week's Friday-Monday, this year the DF/DM count currently stands at 5 with the year about half over.  That puts us on track for a bad 2017.  Just sayin'.

The technicals

The DowOn Tuesday the Dow advanced 269 points on a tall green marubozu that rocketed right back up through the same 200 day MA it sank under a day earlier.  The stochastic is still falling but is now positioned to start a new cullish crossover and RSI has already bottomed out at oversold, so this chart looks mostly bullish right now.

The VIX:  Last night of the VIX I wrote that "I'd have to guess there's more downside ahead here.".  Good guess too as the VIX shed an impressive  21.38% in Tuesday as itre-entered Earth orbit falling back below 20, very near its 200 day MA and only a little higher than where it was just before the Big Brexit Brou-haha.  And with indicators still not oversold despite a big three day tumble, I'd say the selling's not done yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:59 AM EDT with ES up 0.23%. As quickly as ES sliced down through its 200 day MA on Monday, it sliced right back up on Tuesday with a big green marubozu as a bullish engulfing pattern that retraced all of Monday's losses plus a bit of last Friday's.  We also recovered thelower BB and the new overngiht is showing some positive pin action  and a fresh bullish stochastic crossover.  So there seems to be enough gas in this tank for more gains on Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1996.33 to 2013.50.   ES remains well above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

US Dollar ($USDUPX), daily
Dollar index: Last night I did mention that what goes up must come down, didn't I?  And that's what the dollar did on Tuesday off 0.38%with a gap-down green candlethat fell right back through its 200 day MA and back to its upper BB.  That completes a bearish evening star and with indicators near overbought plus a sotchastic close to curving around for a bearish crossover, more downside is not out of the question here.  Lookee here.

Euro:  The euro continued its slow recovery from Friday's mega-dump, back to 1.10795 with an inverted hammer that tested its 200 day MA before falling back.  The new overnight is higher again and mounting another attack on the MA so I'm looking for higher here on Wednesday.

Transportation:  The trans quickly changed gears on Tuesday moving an impressive 2.24% higher for a bullish harami.  With indicators now oversold and the stochastic starting to curve around for a bullish crossover, there seems to be enough gas in theis tank for further gains on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       7      5       6           1       0.615    1108


     And the winner is...

Wow - what a difference a day makes.  The charts that all looked so dismal last night are now looking fairly cheery, so I'm going to claim that we close Wednesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.