Friday, April 24, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2103.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing buy here.
Recap

The hits just keep coming, or more like it the uncertainty just keeps rolling along.  On Thursday the Dow was down adn it was up, finally ending up all of 20 points on a long-legged spinning top.  That's three reversal signs in a row and yet we're still only 23 points away from Monday's close after hundreds of points of gyrations.  Is this the reversal warning that finally takes hold?  Let's see if the charts agree, though I'm beginning to have my doubts as we finish off a weird week.

The technicals

The Dow:  After all the shouting was down on Thursday the Dow was almost unchanged.  And the indicators continue to weave around almost exactly halfway between overbought and oversold.  There's simply no technical guidance here, at least none that I can find, so we'll just take another pass.

The VIX:  Last night, in what was probably my best call all week I wrote "with support nearby, [any downside is] probably limited.".  And so the VIX fell 1.81% to 12.48 after rejecting a probe down to its lower BB to finish right around its week-long support.  The VIX is getting pretty low right here and that has me thinking that a move higher has to be coming soon, just for mean-reversion's sake if nothing else.


Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 1:27 AM EDT with ES down 0.09%.  Last night at this hour ES was looking lethargic but it somehow managed to muster the mojo required to hit its upper BB on Thursday.  That's generally the Third Rail of futures so with OBV having peaked I'm going to cautiously claim ES goes lower on Friday.  And ES is sagging a bit in the overnight too, though it also was last night and that ended proving nothing.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2094.75 to 2103.00.  That leaves ES just a bit  above the new pivot so this indicate remains bullish but just barely.

Dollar index:  At least the dollar made a definitive mode on Thursday, down a big 0;70% to break its recent trio of dojis and stopping only at week-long support.  But that still leaves us nowhere.  Indicators are oversold but not extremely so.  It all depends if this support hold so we defer once again.

Euro:  And pretty much the same story in euro-land with a move up to recent resistance around 1.0830.  At least here the indicators are overbought enough and resistance is strong enough that I'd hazard a guess that the euro goes lower on Friday.

Transportation:  And finally last night I wouldnt' commit to calling the trans lower on the basis of a hanging man and it's good I didn't because even after touching their upper BB on Wednesday, they moved higher still on Thursday up and other 0.477%.  But now we've got yet another spinning top here so there's no calling this chart.  My vague guess is that we're due for a move lower simply because we've now popped off the left edge of the rising RTC on overbought indicators.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      2      6       5           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

Sigh - once again we've got dojis here and there plus some charts up against resistance lines and all of that requires confirmation.  So regrettably I'm going to have to call Friday uncertain for the third consecutive night.  Maybe we'll get some decent swing trade action next week.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Along with everything else VZ confounded my expectations on Thursday with a big pop to punch right through its upper BB and YTD resistance too.  I'll admit I missed this bus but the question now becomes do we get any follow-though or is VZ going to reverse?  I'm afraid I need some confirmation here so we stay away again.

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2094.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing buy here.
Recap

After two entire days of trading, the Dow on Wednesday closed within all of three points of where it opened on Tuesday as this crazy choppiness just goes on and on.  Maybe Thursday will bring us a decisive move one way or the other.  Anything's better than this.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow retraced all of Tuesday's losses plus a bit more.  That sort of qualifies for a bullish engulfing pattern.  What's not in doubt is the stochastic which formed a clear bullish crossover.  There's not much else to go on here so I guess the takeaway from that is positive.

The VIX:  After looking like it was getting ready for a reversal on Tuesday the VIX just fell right back to support around 12.66 on Wednesday.  That sent all the indicators lower before ever hitting overbought and formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  We remain in a descending RTC so there might be some more downside here, but with support nearby, it's probably limited.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are only modestly  lower at 12:53 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  After a gravestone doji on Tuesday ES followed up with a hanging man on Wednesday that bumped up against resistance at 2100 but was unable to move beyond that.  And with indicators nearly overbought it's not clear that there's enough gas left in the ES tank for power on any further on Thursday.  It's certainly not showing much enthusiasm in the overnight so far.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2094.50 to 2094.75. But ES remains above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  After two dojis in a row I punted on the dollar last night.  Turns out it went down, all of 0.07% on Wednesday.  There's just no calling this sort of Brownian motion activity.  Thursday continues to remain a mystery.

Euro:  Similarly, the euro closed just about where it began on Wednesday making it two dojis in a row.  With no resolution.  But now we've got a bearish stochastic crossover and with overbought indicators it looks to me like the next move is likely lower.

Transportation:  Last night I noted a hanging man in the trans but added that "this definitely needs confirmation.".  And good thing too because it was disconfirmed in a big way on Wednesday with the trans up over half a percent to touch their upper BB.  With indicators now overbought, this is another reversal warning but sorry to sound like a broken record - this also requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      2      6       3           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

The charts remain mired between overbought and oversold with little in the way of good candlestick guidance to base a forecast on.  Accordingly I'm afraid I have no choice but to once again call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

After a tall hammer on Tuesday VZ took a nice little pop on Wednesday with a small spinning top.  That makes a move from the lower to the upper BB in just two days.  At this point if anything it looks lower for Thursday.  In any case I still can't get on board, swing trade-wise.

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2089.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing buy here.
Recap

Well it figures.  I guess it was too much to ask to get two right in a row.  I called Tuesday higher so of course it went lower.  April continues to confound but we persist anyhow.  At this point I'll be happy to make it to "sell in May".  Meanwhile, we take a look at Where Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow didn't go higher on Tuesday, instead it lost 85 points after a brief burst positive off the open.  Then it was all downhill from there.  That sent the indicators all scurrying back lower again and gave us a bearish RTC trigger too.  Now this chart looks bearish again.  Unless we're in one of those up/down/up cycles.  Who knows.

The VIX:  Reinforcing how odd this market is, we got another day where the market fell and the VIX went lower too, down 0.38%, very nearly as much as the Dow.  But it was on a weird green candle the confirmed support at 12.63.  With indicators still halfway between overbought and oversold, I've no clue where this one is going next.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up  0.08%.  On Tuesday ES gave us a tall gravestone doji - and a bullish stochastic crossover - and falling money flow but rising OBV.  In other words, the technicals are all over the map here.  But the small rise in the overnight was enough to trigger  bullish stochastic crossover so that's encouraging.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2089.00  to 2094.50. That move was enough to now place ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  At least I was smart enough to avoid calling the dollar last night and that's just as well since on Tuesday after a doji star it put in another doji - this one a tall spindly spinning top for a gain of all of 0.05%.  The stochastic is flat on the floor so there's no clue where this is going next.

Euro:  Adding to the uncertainty, the euro on Tuesday also put in a tall doji star ending virtually unchanged at 1.0742.  With indicators now rather overbought, it looks like the next move would be lower but with this market, who knows.

Transportation:  And as a final joke, on Tuesday the trans rose 0.25% on a day the Dow fell 0.47%.  But did it on a tall hanging man with indicators nearly overbought.  So that's a suggestion of lower to come though with all the weirdness going on lately, this definitely needs confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      2      6       3           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

Right now the market feels like it's searching for a direction.  The charts are as indeterminate as they are in the middle of the dog days of summer and I'm just not feeling the love tonight, baby.  So I'm just going to have to go ahead and call Wednesday uncertain.  Hey, nothing ventured, nothing lost.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to put in one spinning top after another, Tuesday's being quite long-legged and just touching the lower BB.  That may be fine for day trading but there are no good swing entry points in the stock right now that I can see.  If it doesn't change soon, we may go hunt4ing for a new stock that's better behaved.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2089.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing buy here.
Recap

As I was expecting, the markets rebounded nicely on Monday, recouping most of Friday's losses.  Can we keep it going on Tuesday?  Let's check the chart and find out.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow put in the mother of all bullish haramis to very nearly claw its way back into its most recent rising RTC,  That also stopped a decline in the indicators and sent them rising again.  What a difference a day makes - now all of a sudden this chart looks bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I'd give better than even odds this one goes lower on Monday".  Regrettably there were no takers and the VIX dropped 4.25%.  That now completes a classic bearish evening star so the VIX is looking lower again on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:29 AM EDT with ES up  0.24%.  On Monday ES gave us a bullish inside harami that cause the indicators to reverse course and move higher before ever reaching oversold.  And there's positive overnight pin action so there's a fair chance of more upside to come on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2080.58 to 2089.00. That still leaves ES above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "I'd say the dollar is due for a bounce, maybe Monday" and Monday it was with a 0.46% gap-up doji star that put the stochastic in position for a bullish crossover.  Unfortunately, the star requires confirmation, so no call here tonight.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote of the euro "there's a warning here of a move lower on Monday".  And that warning came to pass with a great big bearish engulfing candle that drove the euro right back down to 1.0744 and out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  the new overnight is lower still and that just gave us a bearish stochastic crossover so I'd say the euro goes lower again on Tuesday.

Transportation:  Whoa!  I wasn't expecting that.  On Monday the trans just shot up 1.69% blasting right back through their 200 day MA and stopping only at resistance at 8792 but also forming a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level.  That's generally a good sign of at least one further day of gains.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
 

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      2      5       3           0       0.286      5

     And the winner is...

Technically speaking the charts are looking fairly bullish tonight, enough so for me to call Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday VZ got swept up in the rest of the market hoopla and popped back above its 200 day MA.  I'm sorry though, I still can't get on board this narrow ping-pong match.  I need to see a trading extreme before calling it a buy (or a sell for that matter).  The stochastic reflects this indecision, having now spent an entire week halfway between overbought and oversold.  That ain't for me, Jack.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher.
  • ES pivot 2085.92.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ moving lower
Recap

In a model of understatement last Thursday night I wrote "the charts seem a bit negative tonight".  And on Friday we got hammered across the board for whatever excuse you like: options expirations, the Chinese, the Iranians, and of course the ever popular Greeks.  Despite a late afternoon rally attempt, some technical damage was done so let's take a look at that now as we begin a new week.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow provided scant warning on Thursday in the form of a small doji star of its massive plunge on Friday when it dove right out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup off a rising RTC.  It also gave us a fresh bearish stochastic crossover and sent the indicators right off overbought.  That leaves this chart looking full-on bearish.  The only saving grace here is something of a tail int he lower shadow.  That's the sort of thing we've seen before reversals in the last two big dumps we've gotten in the past month.

The VIX:  And on Friday the VIX took a big gap-up 10% jump to nearly hit its 200 day MA but ending with almost a tall gravestone doji..  It send the indicators off oversold but also qualifies as 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  We've seen this pattern before though and I'd give better than even odds this one goes lower on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:25 AM EDT with ES up a non-trivial 0.40%.  This is a significant bounce off Friday's close and while that drop gave us a bearish setup on a rising RTC exit, the overnight seems to suggest a move higher on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2098.17 to 2085.92. That dump plus the rising overnight now puts ES back above the new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar gained 0.10% on a green bullish piercing pattern.  Indicators have been falling for a while now and are nearly oversold so I'd say the dollar is due for a bounce, maybe Monday but if not then then more likely Tuesday.

Euro:  The euro spent last week in a tight rising RTC but on Friday finally failed to make a higher high, closing at 1.0800.  We're now back to overbought for the firs time in a month and the Sunday overnight while gapping higher is forming a red hanging man making me think there's a warning here of a move lower on Monday.

Transportation:  The trans of course fell on Friday too though only half as much as the Dow.  Still, they sliced right through their 200 day MA and sent the indicators off overbought and continued a bearish stochastic crossover.  There's nothing bullish on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      1      5       3           0       0.167   -204

     And the winner is...

While we have now exited a two-week long rising trend, I think that last Friday's action was somewhat overdone.  When the traders all wake up Monday morning and discover that the sun is still rising in the east and the earth has not stopped turning, they may very well step in to pick up some bargains.  That still leaves Tuesday in question but I think for now I'm going to call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Friday VZ fell back under its 200 day MA with a perfect red gap-down spinning top that also caused a bearish stochastic crossover and sent the other indicators lower too.  This is what I've been waiting for.  I think there's still more downside to come but we're now getting ready for the next swing trade entry, probably sometime this week.

Friday, April 17, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2098.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

It was a tough day Thursday to be calling the close as the Dow finished all of seven points lower after some peculiar gyrations, perhaps linked to op-ex.  And speaking of, it's my policy to always call op-ex Fridays as uncertain, plus I'm just disgusted with always being wrong lately so we're just going to skip the charts tonight and cut straight to the chase.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises just a tad from 2097.50 to 2098.17. That leaves ES sitting right on the new pivot so this indicator is neutral.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
 

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      1      5       2           0       0.167   -204

     And the winner is...

On op-ex Friday?  Who knows.  I simply declare Friday uncertain.  For what it's worth, the charts seem a bit negative tonight but that's not been working out so well this week.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ was unable to hold onto Wednesday's gains as it ended with a long-legged doji.  This sort of action is great for day traders but not so much for swing trading so we continue to stay away.  I need to see some extreme readings one way or the other before I'll commit.

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher....
  • ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Firday bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Oh great.  Sometimes I get on these wrong-streaks and this is one of them.  I called Wednesday lower so of course it went higher.  Perhaps I did not give enough credence to the futures and the VIX.  Well we won't make that mistake again, at least not soon.  So let's see what lessons we an apply here for Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow completely ignored a bearish harami and overbought indicators to gain another 76 points.  That keeps the rising RTC intact and to heck with the indicators which are now all broken at overbought.  The next key point is the upper BB at 18,215 and I expect to touch that on Thursday.

The VIX:  At least I was right last night when I wrote "I'd not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday."  That dark cloud cover yielded a 6% drop on Wednesday.  With two black crows cawing away now we see the lower BB and support both at 12.37 next up and I expect to hit them on Thursday - could be a bottoming day.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: 10 AM EDT with ES up  0.10%  ES had a nice day on Wednesday climbing back to resistance around 2100.  Indicators are all way overbought but broken at these levels.  There's new resistance at 2107 and then the upper BB at 2111 but after being so overbought for a week now, does ES have to mojo to reach that?  The overnight pin action seems to suggest it might.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2086.50 to 2097.50. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Well I was right about this one too last night when I wrote "I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday".  And down we went, off another 0.42%.  That's two black crows,  a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  And that all spells lower again in my book.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continued its bounce Monday off its lower BB with another gain Wednesday.  It was a hanging man but the new overnight seems to be dis-confirming that and with indicators still only just barely off oversold, there seems to be plenty of room to run as the Parityville Express suddenly moves into reverse.

Transportation: Whoa - the trans have been positively psychopathic the past few days.  On Tuesday we got a giant hammer and on Wednesday we got an equally large inverted hammer.  After a two day swing between 8586 and 8784, we finished nearly unchanged.  What we did get was a bearish RTC trigger, overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover.  Hey, I can't be wrong forever and technically this spells lower to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
arch       7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      4       2           0       0.200   -197

     And the winner is...

I've been finding this choppy action lately tough to deal with but I guess we'll take another stab at it.  With a more or less general uptrend in place and in the absence of any  topping candles or negativity from the futures, I guess I'll just go ahead and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

With its stochastic having suddenly threaded out halfway between overbought and oversold, VZ is no longer oscillating nicely the way it had been all the way back to last December.  This is definitely not my ideal swing trade setup, though that doesn't mean VZ couldn't continue to go higher from here.