Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its new pivot, else lower..
  • ES pivot 2163.83.  Breaking above is bullish, breaking below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
Recap

On Monday the Dow took a stab lower but then recovered nearly half of its losses by the end of the day for a 78 point drop that left it at the lower edge of its now seven day trading range.  What does this all mean?  Darned if I know.  We'll take a look at the charts anyway and see if there's anything there.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:22 AM EDT with ES up 0.07%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2164.25 to 2163.83.  That leaves ES right on its new pivot so this indicator is neither bullish nor bearish tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       3      5       5           2       0.500    -312


     And the winner is...

Last night I noted a bearish stick sandwich in ES and on Monday the market did indeed move lower but it was hardly a resounding confirmation.  We remain stuck in the same range we've been in for seven days now.  And with a Fed meeting coming up, I'm not expecting any major moves on Tuesday.  However, I'm tired of calling the market uncertain, so with ES sitting right on its new pivot, this seems like a good time to try another conditional call.  Let's just say that if ES breaks above its pivot and remains there by mid-morning Tuesday, well close higher.  But if it breaks lower, then the market closes lower  Let's see what that does.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.