Thursday, April 24, 2014

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1873.75Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Well that's really odd, my entire post for Wednesday seems to have simply vanished into the ether without a trace.  When I hit "Publish" I kind of expect something to happen.  Oh well.  For the record, my call was for Wednesday as uncertain, which proved to be about right as the Dow lost just 13 points.  I also mentioned how the market was feeling toppy.  So let's see now if that's still the case or if we can motor higher on Thursday.  Assuming I can actually get this stuff out onto the web.  Thanks a lot Google - you big dorks.

The technicals

The Dow: OK, so this looks like an "ah-choo" market now.  You know how it is when you need to sneeze but maybe you don't and you just go "ah... ah... ah..." and everyone is waiting for the "choo"?  Well that's what this is.  We exited the rising RTC on Wednesday - unless you redraw it to account for Monday's gains, in which case we're now still inside.  Doh!  Meanwhile RSI keeps going higher, now up to 94.55.  And the stochastic has just crossover to bearish - if you can call a %K of 92.07 vs. a %D of 92.37 a crossover.  We are now literally teetering on the edge of a trend reversal but the break just doesn't seem to want to happen.

The VIX:  The VIX is no help resolving this mess either.  It did gain 0.61% on Wednesday but did it with a big gravestone doji.  We're near support and the indicators are all oversold but there is still no clear reversal here.

Market index futures: Tonight  all three futures are higher at 1:06 AM EDT with ES up 0.28%.  A perfect doji star for ES on Wednesday warns of a reversal, a notion supported by extremely overbought indicators and a stochastic that's ready to do a bearish crossover (but hasn't yet).  But the new overnight is not confirming the reversal and we do remain in a rising RTC so it is premature to calla  top right here, particularly with no resistance til 1884.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1871.17 to 1873.75.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator is still bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar continues its weird antics, this time by losing 0.07% for a third consecutive loss on three consecutive green candles.  I don't even know the candlestick name for this - three white soldiers marching backwards?  In any event, there's a now-completed bearish stochastic crossover and indicators having peaked at overbought so let's just say this chart now looks officially bearish.

Euro: And the euro, which earlier this week looked ready to break down, climbed right back into its tight range about 1.3816.  There is though a completed bullish stochastic crossover and indicators just barely off oversold, so it looks bullish for Thursday.

Transportation: And finally in an interesting bit of bullish divergence, the trans on Wednesday gained 0.10% to the Dow's 0.08% loss.  However, that came on a spinning top that left RSI at 100 - it doesn't get any more overbought than that.  We also have a stochastic that just barely squeaked out a bearish crossover.  But both OBV and money flow continue to rise.  So this chart is somewhat conflicted but I'd say we have a good warning of a move lower now.

Accuracy:


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      7       2      4           0       0.778    342



     And the winner is...

Tonight we're once again seeing some classical reversal signs but Mr. Market is having none of it.  It may be a case where positive economic news just keeps on propping up the market enough to stave off the pullback that seems overdue.  So having learned my lesson about fighting trends, I'm just going to go way out on a limb and call Thursday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $105,625 after two trades in 2014, staring with $100,000.  We are now 2 for 2 total, 2 for 2 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside because we had a big pop right at the close on Wednesday.  That was the time to open a trade, not late at night.  The timing was just off on this one.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1862.17Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Last night I said that the logical call was for Monday higher.  Well logic prevailed as it usually does and Putinoia was held at bay long enough for the Dow gain 41 points.  Now let's see where logic might lead us on Tuesday.  Bring on the charts! (clap clap!)

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I punted on this chart in the face of a red spinning top.  Turns out that reversal warning was canceled with a respectable 0.25% advance.  That managed to clear resistance at 16,439 and kept us inside a rising RTC.  Indicators are still not yet at overbought though the RSI has actually looked to have topped and the stochastic is curving over for a bearish stochastic crossover.So at this point this chart continues to look bullish though there's a flashing yellow caution light on now.

The VIX:  Wow - this is weird.  Last night I mentioned a rare side by side white lines pattern in the dollar index (see below).  And on Monday we got a nearly identical side by side black lines in the VIX.  So as the dollar was bullish, this is bearish, supported by indicators that are still not yet oversold.  With support still not til 13, I'd say the VIX is going to take a peek at that number on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight  the futures are mixed at 12:26 EDT, with YM down 0.02%, NQ up 0.07% and ES dead even.   ES is now on a strong five day winning streak that has finally just pushed the indicators to overbought.  We need to continue moving higher now to avoid a bearish RTC exit.  Also, the stochastic is flattening out in preparation for a bearish crossover in the next few days, but not quite yet.  So for now this chart continues bullish, though the tide seems to be turning.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1856.33 to 1862.17.  Once again we remain above the new pivot so once again this indicator is bullish.

Dollar index: Last night I mentioned an unusual pattern - the side by side white lines.  And sure enough, they paid off with a 0.16% gap-up gain for the dollar on Monday.  That pulls the dollar into overbought territory but the stochastic has yet to start positioning for a bearish crossover.  With 2/3 of that big down gap from two weeks ago yet to be filled I have to think there's more upside left here for Tuesday.

Euro: I thought the euro would move sideways for a bit but instead it broke to the downside on Monday to close at 1.3794 after briefly touching its lower BB.  That left the indicators quite oversold and suggests that a reversal is on the way - if not Tuesday then more likely Wednesday.

Transportation: Last night I wrote of the trans "I'd say we're headed up to take look-see [at 7713]". Well at 7691 for a high, I'd say we got within shouting distance.  That bumps out winning streak to five, and leaves resistance at 7700 and the upper BB at 7735.  Indicators are still not overbought yet so it looks like there's still enough gas in the tank to take a run at at least one of those numbers on Tuesday.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      7       2      3           0       0.778    342



     And the winner is...

We still don't have any clear bearish signs on the charts tonight though we are starting to have a few hints of reversals.  It's not clear to me how much upside is left.  At this point, it looks like Tuesday could be a doji day.  Accordingly, I'm just going to call it uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $105,625 after two trades in 2014, staring with $100,000.  We are now 2 for 2 total, 2 for 2 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside in view of the "uncertain" call.



Monday, April 21, 2014

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1856.33Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Hmm - last Wednesday night I said Thursday would close lower unless ES broke above its pivot.  Well, ES did just that early Thursday morning and the SPX did indeed close higher.  However, my forecast is for the Dow and that closed lower.  On the other hand, that was entirely attributable to a sudden collapse in IBM, so I think the basic premise was still correct.  I'm sort of conflicted as to whether to call this right or wrong.  I think (since I make the rules) we'll just call this one a push and move on to Monday where hopefully we can get back into a normal market rhythm, but without the blues.

The technicals

The Dow: Last Thursday the Dow gave us a small spinning top, at least hinting at a reversal after a nice three day run.  But we remain in a rising RTC and the indicators are not yet overbought, so this one requires confirmation.  Can't say for sure right now.

The VIX:  And the VIX continued its plunge on Thursday, down another 5.78% and unable to reclaim the 200 day MA.  There's support just above 13 and I think we're going to test that on Monday.  No real reversal signs here yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:34 AM EDT, with ES up by 0.11%.  ES continues to look bullish after a fourth green candle in a row on Thursday.  There's no resistance til 1865 and with indicators not yet overbought I see no reason why we can't hit that number on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises again from 1850.08  to 1856.33.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator sis now bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar just doesn't want to retrace last week's big gap up and put in an unusual pattern - side by side white lines.  That is bullish, and the rising indicators support that.

Euro: The euro has been finding support at 1.3812 for four days now after a failed breakout attempt on Thursday.  It looks like we're in for some sideways action here for a day or two.

Transportation: And finally the trans motored on higher Thursday to extend their streak to four.  Indicators continued climbing and with no resistance til 7713 (which is also the upper BB) I'd say we're headed up to take look-see there.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      6       2      3           0       0.750    301


     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts continue to look bullish and in the absence of any reversal signs the logical call is simply for Monday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $105,625 after two trades in 2014, staring with $100,000.  We are now 2 for 2 total, 2 for 2 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.



Thursday, April 17, 2014

Thursday lower unless ES pivot passed

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday lower if ES stays below pivot, else higher.
  • ES pivot 1850.08Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Well once again the technicals prevailed as my call for a higher Wednesday came to pass.  Putinoia was held at bay and whatever it was that Aunt Janet said didn't seem to bother Mr. Market much.  Now we come to an oddball day indeed - the end of a holiday-shortened week and also op-ex.  Hmm - can the charts point the way out of this conundrum?  Let's take a look.

The technicals

The Dow: After Wednesday's gains we now have a nominally bullish three white soldiers going.  But I will observe that each day's gains have been smaller than the day before.  This may be a function of the approaching holiday, waning buying interest, or both.  Nonetheless we now have a good rising RTC going, along with rising indicators so this chart remains bullish until proven otherwise.

The VIXLast night I wrote of the VIX "there's still more downside on the way for Wednesday".  And was there ever, with the VIX falling out of bed in a big 9.16% gap down that sliced right back through its 200 day MA.  With a completed bearish stochastic crossover, 200 MA cross, falling indicators that are still a ways from oversold and only halfway to the lower BB, I still don't think the VIX is done falling.


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:52 AM EDT, with ES down by 0.18%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises again from 1830.92  to 1850.08. This bump combined with ES's sag now leaves us below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.  ES gave us a three white soldiers pattern on Wednesday and remains in a new rising RTC.  However, it appears to be running out of gas after such a nice three day run and the indicators seem to have peaked before even hitting overbought.  It's looking like ES may be taking a breather on Thursday.

Dollar index: Last night I wrote "the dollar's going lower on Wednesday." and it did, just barely, down 0.01% but on a green candle.  With a completed bullish stochastic crossover and rising indicators, I'm now thinking the dollar could move higher on Thursday.

Euro: I didn't call the euro last night which is just as well since it put in an inverted hammer on Wednesday for a fractional gain.  But it seems to be getting into gear in the overnight, up 0;3% so far which is bending the stochastic around to nearly form a bullish crossover.  Money flow continues to rise and we now have a bullish RTC trigger so I'd say the euro's moving higher on Thursday.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "This chart is now looking solidly bullish".  Well I'd say a solid green marubozu for a 1.67% gain on Wednesday counts as pretty bullish in my book.  This move solidified the bullish stochastic crossover, sent the indicators rising off oversold, and gave us a bullish RTC trigger.  This chart remains bullish except for the fact that we closed right as resistance on Wednesday.  But there does seem to be some gas in the tank to motor higher from here Thursday.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      6       2      3           0       0.750    301


   
     And the winner is...

Tonight most of the technicals are bullish, with the lone exception of the futures.  And why might that be?  Well it's a funny week, with a holiday on Friday and op-ex on a Thursday.  Traders might not want to be long over a long weekend while in the grips of Putinoia, possible invasions from Mars, and all the other things that they're always worrying about.  So this looks like a good time to make a conditional call: if ES remains below its pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we close lower.  But if ES breaks above the pivot and stays there by mid-morning, we close higher.  Hey it's worth a shot.  Happy Easter egg hunting and see you again Sunday night.

ES Fantasy Trader


Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $105,625 after two trades in 2014, staring with $100,000.  We are now 2 for 2 total, 2 for 2 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1830.92Holding above is bullish.
  • Thursday bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Whee!  Who needs Disneyland when we've got the stock market, which took us on a wild roller coaster ride on Tuesday.  First it was up, then it was down, then it was up again - it's almost enough to make me start daytrading.  Blame it on Putinoia, on op-ex, on the holiday week, whatever.  The technicals came through and that's all that counts.  So with just two more days to go in this week, let's see what Wednesday has in store, chartwise.

The technicals

The Dow: Last night I wrote "suddenly this chart turns bullish".  I was mentally writing my excuses for being so badly wrong around lunch time Tuesday but then a fierce afternoon rally saved the day.  Whew!  This left us with a fat hanging man and a bullish, if somewhat sketchy RTC setup.  We're still only just coming off oversold on the indicators and a bounce off the lower BB so I have to think there's still more upside left here.

The VIXLast night I wrote (I need an acronym for this, like LNIW) "there's more downside to come here on Tuesday".  And the VIX obliged, dropping 3.10% on an inverted hammer that just barely gets us off overbought and completes a bearish stochastic crossover.  Note how once again, the VIX wasn't able to hang onto its upper BB.  A tip of the Hatlo hat - they'll do it every time.  With the bearish evening star confirmed, it looks like there's still more downside on the way for Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: 22 AM EDT, with ES up by a respectable 0.30%.  Monday's bullish piercing pattern in ES paid off nicely on Tuesday giving us two white soldiers marching higher.  And we're getting some decent pin action in the overnight with a move that pulls ES out of a wide descending RTC back to April 4th for a bullish setup.  The indicators all continue rising so this chart continues looking bullish tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot jumps from 1818.58  to 1830.92. The monster Tuesday afternoon rally has placed us well above the new pivot so this indicator remains quite bullish for Wednesday.

Dollar index: Last night I was looking for some sort of gap-filling for the dollar but mentioned that lower was possible at some point this week.  Well we rose 0.10% on Tuesday but did it with a red hanging man.  That leaves the chart (bearish) in conflict with the oversold indicators and bullish stochastic crossover.  I think I'm goring to go with the candlesticks and claim the dollar's going lower on Wednesday.

Euro: Last night I wrote about the euro, "there's more downside left here on Tuesday" and so there was, with the euro ending at 1.3808 with a red spinning top.  The indicators are now falling off overbought with the lone exception of money flow which is rising.  And we're up 0.07% in the overnight, just crossing above the pivot.  But that all leaves this chart too conflicted to call tonight.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "this chart now has a suggestion of a move higher".  And it was an excellent suggestion indeed as the trans rose 0.86% on Tuesday, completing a bullish stochastic crossover and exiting their descending RTC for a bullish setup.  This chart is now looking solidly bullish, you betcha.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      5       2      3           0       0.714    139


   
     And the winner is...

We went a bit out on a limb last night by calling Tuesday higher based primarily on reversal signs.  But tonight we've seen those signs confirmed so I feel a bit better calling Wednesday higher.  Of course with things possibly heating up in the Ukraine, this could change quickly.  Unfortunately, my bug in the Kremlin seems to be out of order at the moment, so we'll have to go with just the technicals.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $105,625 after two trades in 2014, staring with $100,000.  We are now 2 for 2 total, 2 for 2 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1817.00Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Hmm - interesting.  Last night I suspected we were nearing a reversal at some point this week but I didn't think it would come on Monday, hence I went with the patterns I saw which suggested lower.  Turns out we got our reversal after all, ostensibly on some economic news - whatever.  As I said last night, I'm always glad to be proven wrong on a bearish call since I'm always net long.  So the underlying thesis worked out but the timing was a bit off.  But then calling the bottom is probably the hardest thing to do - even more than calling tops.  So now we have to ask whether this reversal's got legs or if it's just another fakeout breakout like we got last Wednesday.  To the charts!

The technicals

The Dow: Just last night I talked about the pivot.  Had I been awake at 9:30 AM on Monday I would have seen the Dow jump above its daily pivot right out the gate.  And that was all it took as we finished with a nice 146 point pop that completely erased Friday losses.  The candle is sort of piercing line meets engulfing pattern but bouncing off the lower BB as it did, it sure looks bullish to me.  RSI looks to have bottomed and the 16K round number support was never even threatened.  So suddenly this chart turns bullish.

The VIXLast night I wrote "it looks like a lower VIX is coming soon" and it came sooner than I thought, down 5.4% on Monday on a big (and unusual) gravestone doji.  For my money, this completes the bearish evening star from Friday and with indicators still overbought, I now think there's more downside to come here on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:18  AM EDT, with ES up by 0.07%.  On Monday ES put in a class bullish piercing pattern and money flow turned higher for the first time since April 3rd.  The stochastic is still pretty jumbled but after two days closing and then opening under the lower BB, this chart now looks positive to me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot inches up from 1817.00 to 1818.58.  Thanks to its amazing late afternoon rally, ES is now well above the new pivot so this indicator is bullish.

Dollar index: On Monday the dollar had a big gap-up but small range day that was enough to generate a nice bullish stochastic crossover.  These big yawning gaps always want refilling though some I'm going to guess that some sort of gravitational attraction will pull the dollar back modestly on Tuesday.  Longer term though, we now have a completed bullish RTC trigger so I'm looking for higher later this week.

Euro: And on Monday the euro took a dump, falling out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover.  With indicators still overbought, I claim there's more downside left here on Tuesday.

Transportation: On Monday the trans posted a somewhat less impressive gain than the Dow with a little inside harami spinning top.  Having also bounced off their lower BB with oversold indicators, this chart now has a suggestion of a move higher.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      4       2      3           0       0.667     50


   
     And the winner is...

Both the SPX Hi-LO index and the NYSE A/D line rebounded nicely on Monday.  And we're seeing more concrete reversal signs of a move higher tonight than last night.  The VIX in particular is teetering on its upper BB and seems more likely to move lower than higher from here.  I think I missed Monday by not having enough conviction in my position so tonight I'm just going  say I believe that we see Tuesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $105,625 after two trades in 2014, staring with $100,000.  We are now 2 for 2 total, 2 for 2 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1817.00Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

The selling simply continued on Friday as no one wanted to stay long the weekend with a weak-looking technical picture.  Someone on CNBC also mentioned tax selling.  I was thinking tax-loss selling, but that's supposed to happen in December.  Then I realized he meant people simply selling stocks to raise cash to pay their taxes.  Do people really  do that?  I mean wait til the last second to sell?    There maybe something to that as I went back and checked the week before April 15th.  Going back three years, yup sure enough, the market goes lower.  Something to think about next year.  Now things get complicated as we enter a holiday-shortened week.

The technicals

The Dow: Friday's action took the Dow down to and actually below its lower BB.  Indicators are now quite oversold though not extremely so.  We broke support at 16,066 and all that remains now is the hard number at 16K even.  The 200 day MA at 15,752 is coming into view as the ultimate backstop but I don't think we'll get there this week.  Still, there's no immediate reversal sign on this chart so it continues to look bearish.

The VIXOn the other hand, there is a reversal sign on the VIX.  On Friday the VIX gained 7.27% but did it on a gap-up spinning top to form 2/3 of a classic bearish evening star.  Reinforcing this is the fact that the VIX crossed its upper BB and even closed above it.  Once again I state that the VIX rarely spends more than a day or two above its upper BB before retreating.  Indicators are now quite overbought so it looks like a lower VIX is coming soon, though maybe not perhaps as soon as Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:28 AM EDT, with ES down by 0.15%.  ES, like the Dow put in two nasty down days to end last week.  And there seems to be no end in sight.  OBV is decidedly negative and continues to fall, and money flow has been decreasing since April 3rd.  And what was an incipient bullish stochastic crossover was short-circuited so while the indicators are now oversold, there's no sign of a turn-around.  The only ray of hope here is that the developing candle is looking like a spinning top reversal but it's generally poor practice to read too much into a half-baked candle.  ES also has no support until the round-number 1800 level, and then 1797.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot tumbles again from 1839.42 to 1817.00. Even with this big drop we're still beneath the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.  I was asked today by a reader about my use of the pivot.  There's a good introduction to pivots here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pivot_point.  This is a concept I can thank Dr. Steenbarger for s well as many other insights into the market.  I'm afraid my use of the pivot is pretty simple, some might say simplistic, but it works for me.

I really have just two basic rules.  Price moving above the pivot from below is a bullish sign, and vice-versa.  And the second rule is that you should watch out during a trending pattern for the stock or whatever to get too far extended from the pivot as that can signal a reversal.  I guess it's just a fancy way of saying "reversion to mean" but the pivot gives you a nice anchor for where that mean should be considered to be.

I also have what I call a "conditional forecast" that uses the ES pivot.  Sometimes if ES is close to its pivot in the wee hours of the night, I'll take a guess that the market will close in the direction of the pivot crossing if it makes one before mid-morning the next day.  So if we're above the pivot and stay above, that's bullish.  But if we break down under the pivot, the market will close lower.  It doesn't always work, but it works often enough to be useful.

Dollar index: The dollar on Friday posted a 0.09% gain on a red candle.  But that was enough toe just exit the descending RTC for a bullish setup, while driving RSI down to very oversold and leaving the stochastic on the floor flat as a pancake.  With support holding it looks like we have a hint of a reversal, but on that requires confirmation on Monday.

Euro: And on Friday the euro put in a classic doji star right at the top of Thursday's green marubozu after four straight days of gains.  The overnight is seeming to confirm this doji, trading sharply lower and creating a bearish stochastic crossover, and making Monday look like a loser for the euro.

Transportation: On Friday the trans pretty much reflected the Dow so the same comments apply here too - oversold but no immediate reversal in sight.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      4       1      3           0       0.800    196


   
     And the winner is...

The SPX Hi-Lo indicator I use comes from stockcharts.com and they're showing a reading of zero tonight which I'm pretty sure is wrong.  I think it's more like 35 which is still pretty low but frustratingly not low enough to be a major reversal sign.  Also the NYSE A/D line continues to put in lower highs and lower lows - a bearish sign.  And the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index has now fallen to 1.01, its lowest level since January 27th (on the way down) - and that wasn't the bottom back then either.  There's only a tiny smattering of hope in the charts tonight making me think we might see a reversal later this week but I don't think it's going to be Monday, hence I'm regrettably calling Monday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong since I'm always net long.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $105,625 after two trades in 2014, staring with $100,000.  We are now 2 for 2 total, 2 for 2 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.