Friday, May 22, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain....
  • ES pivot 2099.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still a swing trade buy.
Recap

Last night I wrote that "we've now had three days of next to no action at all.  And I'm not expecting much different for the rest of the week."  Well I was wrong.  We didn't get next to no action, we got no action at all.  On Thursday after an entire day of trading the Dow finished up all of 0.34 points.  That's zero, as in zip, zilch, nada, the square root of nothing.  With this sort of market it is literally not worth my time to be playing this game.  Much as I love the Street, I'm starting my Memorial Day weekend a day early and intend to spend Friday puttering in the garden planting flowers.  So there, nyah!

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot barely budges from 2124.67 to 2125.00. But ES remains above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        5      4       3           2       0.667    428


     And the winner is...

There's just no way to call this sort of silliness so I won't even try.  Happy Memorial Day and see you again next Monday night!

Single Stock Trader

I called VZ a speculative buy last night and that paid off on Thursday with a 21 cent gain.  Things still arent' overbought so it's logical to expect a bit more upside.

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday lower.
  • ES pivot 2124.67.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Friday bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ now a speculative swing trade buy.
Recap

Well it was looking good for my call for a lower close on Wednesday - until the Fed minutes came out at 2 PM.  Then Mr. Market went on a bizarre manic tear higher, only to come to his senses an hour later for a 27 point loss on the day.  Made for some nice day trading, but for swing trading well we're still sitting on the sidelines.  And as the Oppressors of the Working Class make up their picnic lists for their weekend in the Hamptons, we expect even less action for the remainder of the week.  Thank God I'm only watching the game and (not even) controlling it.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow gave us a second (lopsided) spinning top, this one red, that once again failed to produce a higher high.  That reinforced the bearish stochastic crossover and makes me think there's more downside to come.

The VIX:  After three dojis in a row, on Wednesday the VIX gave us, yes another doji, this one a perfect star.  At this point all that means is that the VIX can't decide which way to go.  With the indicators all depressed I'd guess there's more upside than downside to come but with this snoozer of a week, who knows.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:15 AM EDT with ES down 0.18%.  On Wednesday ES confirmed Tuesday's red spinning top with another spinning top that again touched the upper BB, this one a bit lower.  Indicators remains overbought and the bearish stochastic crossover is now complete so that all looks rather bearish.  The overnight is confirming that with a non-trivial move lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2126.58 to 2124.67.  ES remains well below the new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Hah - just when the dollar looked ready to form a classic evening star it instead moved higher again, this time with a perfect little star that sent the indicators even closer to overbought.  So with that big yawning gap hanging below us I have to think some retracement is due soon.

Euro:  Last night of the euro I wrote "Look for support to fail on Wednesday and another lower close.".  Well it did and we did, back down to 1.1120.  That leaves the euro in a steep descending RTC with falling indicators not yet oversold.  The only saving grace here is a hammer candle but that would require confirmation.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "I think the trans go lower on Wednesday."  Good thinking too because they dropped nearly 2% handily breaking six month support at 8569 all the way down to their lower BB.  That sent the indicators instantly to oversold but also formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  But given the magnitude of the decline and the BB touch, I'd not be surprised to get a DCB on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      3       3           2       0.727    455


     And the winner is...

Meh - things are looking pretty toppy tonight.  I'm just going to go ahead and call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Interestingly, on Wednesday VZ confirmed Tuesday's hammer for a 14 cent gain and
that trumped a bearish looking stochastic crossover.  It also gave us a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit.  The bad news is that this candle was a tall inverted hammer so that sort of leaves us right back where we were.  I'd call this one a speculative buy at this point but personally I'm still not in.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday lower.
  • ES pivot 2126.58.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Well this was probably the biggest snoozer of a record breaker in history.  The Dow hit new highs but ended up just 14.  What does it all mean for Wednesday?  Let's check it out.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow continued to play tag with its upper BB ending with a perfect spinning top.  Add in an RSI that's still overbought but now off its peak and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover and I'd say the Dow's next move is lower.

The VIX: Last night I was leery of relying too much on the VIX and indeed on Tuesday once again we saw a VIX rise on a day when the Dow was higher too.  Oddly enough we now have four red candles in a row for the VIX.  We're still just off YTD support and the indicators are still oversold so I still have to think the VIX goes higher from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:12 AM EDT with ES up  0.04%.  After touching new highs on Tuesday and punching through its upper BB, ES fell back to end with a red spinning top and a reversal warning.  Indicators are now quite overbought and we've got a new bearish stochastic crossover.  And with the overnight looking anemic I'd guess the Wednesday's looking lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2122.33 to 2126.58. But that gain was enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator goes back to bearish.

Dollar index:  Holy moly, after a decent gain on Monday the dollar just exploded on Tuesday with a giant skyrocket gap-up 1.16% pop for a descending RTC bullish trigger.  The recent downtrend is now dead.  And indicators are still not overbought so more upside is possible, assuming the dollar doesn't want to take a rest after such a big move.

Euro:  And last night I wrote that the euro "looks lower again Tuesday".  That was looking good as the euro took an even bigger dump than Monday to close at 1.1159m right on recent support.   And the selling's still not over according to the overnight as the indicators are still nowhere near oversold.  Look for support to fail on Wednesday and another lower close.

Transportation:  Here's some bearish divergence - on Tuesday the trans were unable to capitalize on Monday's 200 day MA breakout, falling right back through it for a big 0.75% loss that erased all of Monday's gains.  That looks quite bearish to me so I think the trans go lower on Wednesday./

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        5      3       3           2       0.727    428


     And the winner is...

It's feeling more like the dog days of August than the middle of May lately.  I don't know if all the Byg Wygs have already helicoptered off to the Hamptons for next week's holiday or what but we've now had three days of next to no action at all.  And I'm not expecting much different for the rest of the week.  Technically things are looking just bearish enough for me to call Wednesday lower but I'm not looking for any major moves.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I said I still wasn't in on VZ and it lost another nickel on Tuesday.  But this one was on a hammer with oversold RSI.  The stochastic though made a bearish crossover so I'm still not in.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2122.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.
Recap

I'll admit to being a bit surprised that the market still had enough gas in the tank to push higher on Monday with the Dow touching another record close.  I didn't think it had it in it.  So what does this all mean for Tuesday?  Let's take a look.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow powered past record resistance to close at 18,299.  Admittedly it only took 26 points to do that though.  And the candle was a stubby spinning top.  That makes two reversal candles in a row, both hugging the upper BB.  And indicators are now well overbought.  It's been rare lately for the Dow to spend more than two days above its upper BB so I have to think there's lower coming here soon.

The VIX:  I can forgive myself for being wrong on Monday because this was one of those weird days when the Dow was up and the VIX was also up, in this case 2.83%.  But it was on a weird red candle that nonetheless confirmed Friday's gravestone doji.  Eh??  In any event, this constitutes something of a morning star that with oversold indicators still makes me think the next move is higher.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:51 AM EDT with ES up 0.12%.  On Monday ES rejected Friday's spinning top with a big advance that this time ended on the upper BB which is rising away.  The overnight is moving higher still but that is also causing RSI to peak at overbought and making the stochastic curve around in preparation for a bearish crossover.  But in general, the candles look positive.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2118.33 to 2122.33.  We continue above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar on Monday just laughed at Friday's bearish engulfing pattern and posted a huge 1.17% pop that formed a bullish stochastic crossover and blasted it out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  That all looks positive to me.

Euro:  Similarly, the euro on Monday retreated all the way back to 1.1308 to form a bearish stochastic crossover and a bearish setup on a rising RTC exit, and so that looks lower again Tuesday.  The overnight seems to be supporting that idea so far.

Transportation:  The trans capitalized on Fridays gains with a nice 0.69% gain Monday that punched through their 200 day MA and completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  With a new rising RTC in place this chart looks continued bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      3       3           2       0.667    414


     And the winner is...

Tonight, everything is looking bullish except for the VIX.  I don't usually like to discount the VIX but it is acting squirrelly all of a sudden.  It very rarely rises along with the market so I'm going to discount it tonight, possibly at my peril.  But the overall chart consensus seems to warrant calling Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night VZ confirmed Friday's bearish engulfing candle with a red marubozu and a stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover.  That means once again this stock is not a swing buy.

Monday, May 18, 2015

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower.
  • ES pivot 2118.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

I didn't call last Friday just because it was op-ex but based on the big gain from Thursday, the puny 20 point advance in the Dow was about what you'd expect.  So nothing ventured, nothing lost.  So let's move on to the third full week of May and see if it's time to sell yet or not.  So far that hasn't been a winner.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last Friday the Dow advanced a bit more but the candle was decidedly bearish - a hanging man and dark cloud cover combined sitting right on the upper BB with overbought indicators cross the board just short of resistance.  That all spells lower in my book.

The VIX:  The VIX meanwhile broke its recent support to close at 12.38 on a gravestone doji with oversold indicators now on YTD support.  I'd have to guess that means higher next.  It did the last time we say this (see 4/24/15).

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:42 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  ES had a little symmetric spinning top on Friday that just touched its upper BB right at record highs.  That a decent reversal warning and the Sunday overnight seems to be supporting that so I'm not optimistic about Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2109.25 to 2118.33.  And that was enough to now put ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the only recently seemingly unstoppable dollar non-confirmed Thursday's fake-out doji with a tall bearish engulfing pattern for a 0.35% loss.  That leaves the indicators still oversold but it also doesn't look like the bottom is in yet.

Oh, and I should add for the benefit of everyone crying about the "strong dollar", I remember the days when a dollar was worth 360 yen and also more than four Swiss francs - and I'm not that old.  So don't tell me the dollar is so "strong".

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continued its upward course after bottoming last month to close at 1.1442 on Friday and stopping right on YTD resistance.  And that may have been a resistance too far as the overnight is now moving lower again and forming a bearish stochastic crossover to boot.  So the euro might just close lower on Monday.

Transportation:  And finally on Friday the trans confirmed Thursday's hammer with a nice nearly one percent advance.  This tall green marubozu also gave us a bullish stochastic crossover and sent all the indicators higher.  That all looks bullish to me for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      2       3           2       0.750    440

     And the winner is...

Aside from the trans, the charts tonight seem to be looking rather negative, so I'm just going to have to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I said that VZ was no longer a buy and that was true with an 18 cent drop on Friday on a bearish engulfing pattern.  So tonight it's still not a buy.

Friday, May 15, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2109.25.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Wow - I'm glad I called Thursday uncertain because I sure didn't see a 192 point pop in the Dow coming. With Friday being options expiration, it is my policy to not make any calls on these days given their generally squirrelly nature.  That means calling it uncertain out-of-hand so we can dispense with the individual chart run-downs.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2097.50  to 2109.25.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      2       2           2       0.750    440


     And the winner is...

According to policy, we're calling Friday uncertain, simple as that.  And that's all she wrote.  See you again next Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night VZ wasn't looking particularly impressive so I took a pass.  Just as well too since it did basically nothing on Thursday.  If anything with two gap-up spinning tops in a row it looks more ready to move lower next than anything else.  It looks like the buy was when it hit its 200 day MA, but not anymore.

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Friday bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

I called Wednesday higher (though I apparently forgot to hit "publish" late Tuesday night so it didn't go out until noon on Wednesday) but no matter, the Dow had a tiny range day and finished well inside the noise band with just an eight point loss.  So let's move on to the day before op-ex to figure out what if anything any of this means.

The technicals

The Dow:  After several large excursions both down and up the previous two days, the Dow did next to nothing on Wednesday in something that could be construed as a symmetrical triangle - or maybe not.  I don't know if it's op-ex week jitters or what but there are very few technical clues at least that I can see in this chart tonight.  So no call here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that the VIX "looks bearish to me."  And while it was in fact down, it was only 0.72% and on a green spinning top at that.  We also just barely squeaked out a bullish stochastic crossover so I guess this one looks higher for Thursday but it's far from crystal clear.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:10 AM EDT with ES up  0.04%.  ES had the day traders pulling their hair out Wednesday, going basically nowhere by the close.  With two opposing dojis now ( a hammer followed by an inverted hammer), where this goes next is anyone's guess.  The overnight isn't helping either, basically going nowhere at the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2091.75  to 2097.50.  That gain plus a lackluster ES in the overnight now places it below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night of the dollar I wrote that it "looks like lower again on Wednesday".  And that's what happened, down a big 1.02% to form a bearish stochastic crossover even as RSI is oversold.  With the lower BB yet to be hit, this sort of bearish momentum is not to be toyed with.  I'd not go long the dollar here.

Euro:  And so also last night I wrote of the euro that "this chart looks higher Wednesday."  And that's also just what happened as the euro popped right back to its resistance at 1.1365 for a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit.  Indicators continue to rise  but it's not clear the euro can clear this resistance.

Transportation:  And finally last night I wrote that  it "all adds up to continued lower" and that's just where the trans went on Wednesday, down a big 1.04% to close right on support and just short of the lower BB.  That move forced the indicators way down, now just off oversold.  So a reversal is looking likely based on S/R lines but not on the candles just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      2       1           2       0.750    440


     And the winner is...

The market has been pretty conflicted all week long swinging one way and then the other with little to show for it in the end and the technicals reflect that.  Against this backdrop there's little I can do so I will just have to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I noted a possible reversal in VZ and it did in fact rise on Wednesday, though only by an anemic 11 cents and with a spinning top at that.  That flattened out the indicators too so once again, I'm not on board.  I'm still waiting for my preferred setup.