Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2056.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.
Recap

After falling over the edge out the gate Monday morning, the Dow quickly recovered the entire loss, only to retrace most of it before finally ending just 47 points lower as Mr. Market displayed more common sense than he usually does in the face of "major crises".  So that's that.  Let's see, if it's even possible technically with the barrage of contradictory and confusing comments coming from Europe lately, where Tuesday might be headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  After trading above its 200 day MA on Thursday, the Dow plunged back below it on Monday, only to pop right back up again and finally settle just a few points below it with the mother of all hammers.  Though we now have two red days in a row they both traded outside the last descending RTC and that's a bullish trigger.  The indicators remain oversold and the stochastic has completed a bullish crossover.  So overall I'd have to say this chart now looks bullish.

The VIX:  After finding support right on its 200 day MA last Thursday the VIX continued higher on Monday.  But after hitting the rarefied air around 19 (where it petered out twice before in the last 5 days) it came right back down to end with a tall dark cloud cover that bounced off its upper BB.  Indicators remain overbought and we have a completed bearish stochastic crossover so this chart looks lower Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:54 AM EDT with ES up  0.31%.  ES opened Monday way down, in fact below its lower BB and right down to its 200 day MA.  But then it was up, up and away from there for a nearly 30 point gain.  Even at that, the indicators are still just barely oversold and the stochastic has just completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  So with the overnight confirming that, this one looks higher for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot plummets from 2070.00 to 2056.42. That now leaves ES way above its new pivot so this indicator is quite bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar took a 0.19% bounce on Monday, no doubt as all the Greeks sought refuge for their cash.  But that drove it to its upper BB and left the indicators just off overbought with a red hanging man.  This is a pretty good reversal sign so I'd not be surprised to see the buck go lower on Tuesday.

Euro:  I'm a bit surprised that the euro managed to actually post a gain on Monday given all the Greek drama going on.  In the overnight it's virtually unchanged but given all the uncertainty around Europe right now, I'm not touching this one with a ten foot Grecian urn.

Transportation:  The trans have been in a ragged descending trend since the middle of March, one that accelerated after giving up the 200 day MA in mid-May.  The trend is even more pronounced on the monthly chart where you can clearly see the peak in November 2014.  But on a monthly basis we are now oversold and that doesn't happen often.  The last time was September 2011 and month later the trans took off on a four month rally.  In daily terms we've ricocheted off the lower BB with oversold indicators and a stochastic lying on the floor but gearing up for a bullish crossover.  So with some clear support established at 8080, I'd have to guess the next move is higher.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       2      0       0           0       1.000    185


     And the winner is...

What a difference a day makes.  Tonight the charts are pretty much in agreement with some good bullish technical signs so I'll just go ahead and call Tuesday higher.  With the usual caveat about the Greeks of course.

Single Stock Trader

VZ ultimately lost only a few pennies Monday with a  tall doji star.  With rising indicators and a completed bullish stochastic crossover, this one might go higher Tuesday.  There seems to be more upside potential than downside risk at the moment, modulo the Greeks.

Monday, July 6, 2015

Those freakin' Greeks

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower....
  • ES pivot 2067.33.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Those freakin' Greeks!  As I write on Sunday evening it is apparent that Greece has evidently decided to sow the wind by voting "no" on their crazy referendum.  And just as surely they will reap the whirlwind.  The Grexit is in my view now inevitable.  I  am absolutely astounded at this naked display of unabashed hubris.  The Greeks are crowing about their "dignity" but seem to have forgotten that when you're bankrupt, the first thing you forfeit is your dignity.  Hey, I'll have to try that next year when my property taxes are due.  I'll just tell the town I can't pay but I have my dignity so they have a responsibility to share my pain.  Let's see how far that gets me.  Perhaps Angela Merkel can loan Mr. Tsipras a few euros so he can buy himself a tie.

Apparently the Greeks would rather go down with their ship and take the rest of the world with them.  And judging by the futures this evening, that's exactly what's going to happen on Monday.  So there's no point  to even bother doing individual charts tonight as Monday's close is already a forgone conclusion.  This Greek drama is getting rather tiresome.  Note to Greece: would you please just go away!

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips  from 2070.00 to 2067.33.  And that still leaves us well below the new pivot so this indicator is nwo bearish - very bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552 July       1      0       0           0       1.000    138

     And the winner is...

Monday lower, obviously.  But Monday evening should be interesting as there may be some buying opportunities developing later this week.

Single Stock Trader

VZ had a small gain last Thursday but it's virtually guaranteed to get swept up in Monday's slaughter so this isn't the time to be buying it.

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Thursday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday vacation day.
  • ES pivot 2067.67.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain  technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.
Recap

With the Greeks off the front page for a change, the technicals asserted themselves on Wednesday and up we went as expected.  I'm finally taking Thursday off so no calls tonight.  Here's wishing a happy Fourth of July to all.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       1      0       0           0       1.000    138

     And the winner is...

On vacation.  I'm not expecting much action of any consequence on Thursdayand it seems like a good excuse to get a jump on the long weekend.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night as we gear up for the next exciting episode of All My Drachmas.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2056.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

After a giant dive on Monday that I thought was vastly overdone the markets did indeed rebound on Tuesday in a typical DCB.  At this point, I'm on semi-vacation.  No charts, just the bottom line.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2060.33 to 2056.75.  That finally puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing a bunch of good reversal signs in the charts.  It doesn't hurt that the first of most months is historically bullish too.  So I'm just going to call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ did not participate in Tuesday's rally.  Look for it to hit its lower BB (46.49) before reversing.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher....
  • ES pivot 2060.33.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

I know I said I was going to take the rest of the week off after last night but this action was too good (or too bad) to let pass without comment.  The Night Owl has seen this before.  Some deadbeat promises to repay you by the end of the month, consolidating everything into one payment.  Then the end of the month comes along and instead of a check he wants more time.  Then he's got some excuse where he'll ask a friend and then pay you in five days.  Uh huh.  Time to face the facts, Jack.  The Greeks ain't never gonna pay you.  The Grexit is as good as done.  The other fact is that none of this will amount to a hill of beans.  Look, in the first week of August 2011, the VIX hit 48.  Forty eight!!  And that was because?  Because??  Right - I can't remember either.  And back then the Dow was at 11,000.  So four years from now no one will remember the Greeks and their 2015 fiscal melodrama.  Next crisis!

The technicals

The Dow:  For all the drama of Monday's 350 point swan dive in the Dow, it pales compared to the 875 point drubbing the Dow took in January 2014 for example.  Absurdly overdone, IMNSHO.  In one day the Dow broke support at 17,764, broke through its lower BB, and then kept right on going crashing through its 200 day MA, stopping only because the bell finally rang at 4 PM.  That was more than enough to send it oversold and drive the stochastic to a level from which reversals come.  This chart is looking ripe for a relief rally or at least a DCB.

The VIX:  Holy moly!  On Monday the VIX exploded like a SpaceX shuttle supply rocket, gapping up 34%, vaulting right over its 200 day MA and trading mostly entirely above its upper BB for its highest close since January 28th.  Some talking head on CNBC was sniffing that the VIX is still below 20 ignoring the magnitude of the one-day delta.  Anyway, give it time.  Whenever Mr. Market goes off his meds like this, the one-and-done rule of the VIX falling after hitting its upper BB is suspended.  Vicious moves like this seem to have lots of inertia behind them so it's still possible we could see another day or two of moves higher.  Then watch for the inevitable VIX collapse.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:15 AM EDT with ES up  0.23%.  On Monday ES had the biggest gap-down I think I've ever seen in 10 years, hitting 2047 to send the indicators all oversold.  The stochastic is now moving into position for a bullish crossover but not there yet.  But the overnight seems to be suggesting some sort of retracement for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot crashes  from 2094.25 to 2060.33.  And even after that ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar also had an outsized move lower Monday, down a big 0.73%, though not more than we've seen multiple times in the past 30 days.  But it was enough to peak the indicators at overbought and form a bearish stochastic crossover so this chart looks lower for Tuesday.

Euro:  Mr. Market seemed to cheer the effect of the impending departure of the Greeks from the euro as the currency just rose throughout the day while the rest of the market got pounded.  It completely retraced a big gap down the day before, and then some.  So after all the noise, the euro closed at 1.1265, exactly where it was four days ago.  But these big one-off moves tend to distort the charts so I'm not touching this one tonight.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans moved in lockstep with the Dow so everything I wrote there applies here too.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.667    529


     And the winner is...

Just as the futures pointed the way lower last night at this hour tonight they seem to be suggesting a bounce on Tuesday.  I note too that the SPX Hi-Lo indicator hit 9 on Monday, its lowest reading of the year by far.  These are the levels from which reversals spring.  The previous low, on March 10th was 32 and the next day began an 8 day rally.  As the markets open and traders discover that the earth is still spinning on its axis, we could attract  some bargain hunters so I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday higher.

Of course, that could change if the Greek finance minister suddenly announces he's going to play Angela Merkel and the ECB board of governors a round of Texas Hold 'Em for the Greek debt, then all bets are off.

Single Stock Trader

VZ went oversold on Monday but there's no telling what's going to happen next so we're just continuing to sit on the sidelines here.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower....
  • ES pivot 2094.25.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Well the Dow closed higher Friday thanks in large part to some outperformance by Nike.  I had called for the market to go lower and while the SPX and Nasdaq both did just that, my benchmark is the Dow so that counts as a miss.  Tonight though, we're looking at a holiday-shortened week and more bad news out of Greece.  It's now looking like those freakin' Greeks are prepared to go down with the ship and hope to take everyone else with them.  So we're making one call this week and then taking a vacation until after the Fourth of July by which time one would think some measure of sanity will have returned to the markets.  Meanwhile, Monday is a foregone conclusion so we're skipping the usual chart run-down and cutting straight to the chase..

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2099.58 to 2094.25 as ES take the biggest opening gap down I think I've ever seen.  ES is now a whopping 28 points below its new pivot so this indicator is bearish indeed.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      6       3           4       0.647    179


     And the winner is...

With the futures acting like the End of Days is upon us this evening, it's pretty clear that we're closing lower Monday.

Single Stock Trader

Just look for VZ to get hammered on Monday along with the rest of the market.  So what, the Greeks can't pay their bills so Americans are going to start making fewer phone calls?

Friday, June 26, 2015

Friday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2099.58.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Foo - I thought Mr. Market had had enough last night but apparently not as the Dow sank another 76 on Thursday as the buyers continued to sit on their hands.  Will Friday make them stand up and salute?  Let's see what the charts have to say about that.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow is now in full-on bearish mode with two black crows, a bearish RTC trigger and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  Last night I wrote that "there's nothing technically bullish about this chart" and tonight that goes double.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "this chart just looks higher again on Thursday.".  And indeed it was, up another 5.66% for a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit.  Add in a bullish stochastic crossover and these two white soldiers look ready to march higher still on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 1:48 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%  %.  ES on Thursday did pretty much the same thing as the Dow so my comments above for that go here too.  And the new overnight isn't doing much to dispel that either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2105.67 to 2099.58.  So ES remains below its new pivot and this indicator just continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "this one looks lower again on Thursday" and indeed it was, but just barely with a 0.03% squeaker.  But this little doji star moved the stochastic closer to a bearish crossover and so this chart still looks bearish to me.

Euro:  And on Thursday the euro had a similar doji star as it consolidates at the base of Tuesday's big dump.  But indicators have finally gone oversold and the stochastic is about to give us a bullish crossover so I'd guess this one goes higher on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I figured the trans had gone about as low as they were going to go, and I was wrong.  On Thursday they were stopped only by their lower BB at 8240.   The last time we closed this low was last October 8th!  And the indicators are still a ways from oversold so with two red marubozus on the record, there's still nothing bullish here.  Thanks, Greece.  Thanks for nothing.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      5       3           4       0.688    235


     And the winner is...

Thursday's action only provided bearish confirmation of Wednesday's charts.  If we didn't get a reversal Thursday I don't think we're going to get one Friday as the charts are looking generally ugly.  Now Russell rebalancing could conceivably throw a monkey wrench in the works and I'd love to see a move higher, but I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ was one of only a handful of Dow stocks that managed to rise on Thursday but it was on a red inverted hammer with a bearish stochastic crossover, trading outside its rising RTC again for a bearish trigger.  So VZ remains most definitely not a swing trade buy.