Monday, February 13, 2017

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher.
  • ES pivot 2310.50  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

It seems that a lot of the time this year so far the market has been driven more by news than the technicals.  That's why it was gratifying to see my call for a higher close work out last Friday as the market pushed even higher into record territory  The 20K Dow level is starting to look like decent support.  We now enter February op-ex week as well as the final week of the Night Owl.  After this week, we'll be history.  But until then, let's see what's on the table for Monday.

The technicals

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I wrote of the VIX that "it looks to me like there's still at least a bit of room to run lower again" and I'd say that Friday's 0.28% loss just about fits that bill.  This time though we're left with a nice doji star.  With the VIX now oversold and very close to multi-year lows, I'm now going to reverse course and claim that a move higher is looking to be in the cards pretty soon - sometime this week.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:26 AM EST with ES up 0.15%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2299.92 to 2310.50.  Even with that, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January   10      2       7           1       0.846    595
February   3      0       5           0       1.000    376

IBM, daily
     And the winner is...

All the indicators are now overbought but we posted some solid gains last Friday on the heels of Thursday's range breakout.  Also the trans continue to outperform, copper continues to rise and market bellwether IBM looks rather bullish.  Is that a cup & handle I detect there?  Add in futures that are running higher again in the overnight jut as they were last Thursday night and I'm going to have to call Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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