Friday, February 10, 2017

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2299.92  Holding above is bullish..
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Well it looks like the logjam broke a bit earlier than I was expecting.  There was nothing at all uncertain about the Dow's 118 point pop back into new record territory on Thursday that saw all but a few of the Dow components in the green.  Maybe now we'll get some technicals we can sink our teeth into?  Let's take a peek at the charts for Friday's prediction.
VIX, daily

The technicals

The VIX:  The VIX fell out of its recent range on Thursday breaking support at 11.25 to end at 10.88.  Despite how low that sounds, there's still recent support at 10.60 so with a tall red (almost) marubozu, indicators just barely oversold and a stochastic not yet ready to turn bullish, it looks to me like there's still at least a bit of room to run lower again here.  Take a look at the chart.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:03 AM EST with ES down 0.10%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2287.75 to 2299.92.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January   10      2       7           1       0.846    595
February   2      0       5           0       1.000    279

     And the winner is...

The Dow is now rather overbought but its breakout on Thursday, accompanied as it was by outperformance in the trans and a drop in the VIX, plus some gains in the overnight futures of the sort we haven't seen in a while makes me willing to go out on a limb and call Friday higher.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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