Thursday, February 9, 2017

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2287.75  Holding above is bullish..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

So on Tuesday the Dow was up all of 38 and on Wednesday it gave it all back leaving us right back where we were at the end of Monday..  Is it any wonder I keep having to call the market as uncertain very day lately?  We continue on to Thursday to see if there's any clarity coing any time soon.

The technicals

The VIX:  Last night I admitted defeat in trying to predict where the VIX might go on Wednesday.  Turns out it rose all of 0.21%though it did it on a bullish engulfing candle.  But there's still no consensus here as the VIX is now rather overbought and its stochastic is well into the region from which bearish crossover come (though that process hasn't begun yet).  Just another reflection of the ongoing uncertainty in the market I guess.  So once again, I'm taking a pass on this particular chart for Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:22 AM EST with ES up 0.03%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2289.17 to 2287.75.  That's enough to place ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips right back to bullish, continuing its recent back and forth.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January   10      2       7           1       0.846    595

February   2      0       4           0       1.000    279

     And the winner is...

With a small move in the Dow on Wednesday and an even smaller move in the SPX, and little guidance from the trans, the futures or any of the other usual suspects, I'm afraid tonight's call is once again simply Thursday uncertain.  It feels more like the dog days of summer than the middle of winter on Wall St.  And I think we're in for at least one more day of this.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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