Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2289.17  Holding below is bearish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Well the Dow moved a bit more on Tuesday than Monday but a 38 point gain is still pretty paltry so it's just as well that I called it as uncertain.  In any case with another misshapen spinning top on the books it looks like there's still no clear direction for the market.  So we just move on ahead to Wednesday to see if we can figure out when this logjam will break.

The technicals

The VIX:  Such is the extent of the uncertainty that I wouldn't commit to a call on the VIX last night.  Turns out it went lower on Tuesday - by a meager 0.70%, following up a spindly doji star with an almost as spindly red spinning top.  The indicators continue to wander about halfway between overbought and oversold so once again we have nothing to go on here.  There's no way I can call the VIX either higher or lower at this point.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are once again little changed at 1:13 AM EST with ES down just one tick but YM up 0.05%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot inches up from 2288.08 to 2289.17.  That leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January   10      2       7           1       0.846    595
February   2      0       3           0       1.000    279

     And the winner is...

On Tuesday the Dow touched its upper BB on a gap-up red spinning top.  But without support from the VIX or the futures, it's impossible to rationally call this market lower.  The sideways shuffle just seems to keep on going.  So once again I'm afraid I have to call Wednesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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